The Guardian July 2017 poll

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Anissa Gallagher
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1 Choice Matters. The Guardian July 0 poll Fieldwork dates: th July 0 Interview method: Online Population effectively sampled: All GB adults aged + Online Sampling Method: A nationally representative sample was selected at random from the NewVista panel of 00,000+ adults, with sample selected in proportion to population distribution. Sample size:,0 GB adults aged + Data weighting: Data were weighted to the profile of all adults aged +. Data were weighted by sex, age, social class, household tenure, work status and region. Targets for the weighted data were derived from the National Readership survey, a random probability survey comprising,000 random facetoface interviews conducted annually. Further weighting schemes were overlaid as follows: Weighting by past votes online The sample were fully weighted to the 0 General Election result, with provision made for Did Not Vote, Refusal and Don t know. Weighting for turnout We have returned to the simple 0point turnout scale, applying a factor to each score given out of 0, halved if the respondent did not vote in the previous election. Voting intentions: ICM derives vote intentions from three questions. First of all respondents are asked if they are registered to vote in UK elections. Those not registered are excluded from vote intention calculations. Then, respondents are asked how likely it is that they would be to go and vote in a new election. Those who say they will vote are asked to say which party they would support in a new election.

2 Respondents are then asked whether they voted in 0 and which party they voted for in that election. The vote figures shown in the tables are calculated after ICM has excluded those who are not registered, say they will not vote, refuse to answer the question or don t know who they would vote for (but see below). Adjustment process : Partial Refuser Reallocation A.) of 0 servative, Labour and Liberal Democrat voters who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. B.) of 0 voters for all other parties who refuse to answer the vote intention question or say they don t know, are added back to the party they voted for in 0. Adjustment process : Refuser Reallocation refusers are people who refuse/dk their future vote intention AND also refuse/dk who they voted for in the previous General Election (0). Our new adjustment reallocates some Refusers back into the poll sample. This is achieved in the following way:. The number of Refusers on any poll is multiplied by the proportion of Partial Refusers who were (already) reallocated in Adjustment Process. (For example, if 0% of Partial Refusers were added back, then 0% of Refusals will be added back).. Refusers are then multiplied by each party s share of reallocated Partial Refusers. (For example, if 0% of already allocated Partial Refusals were 0 servative voters, then 0% of remaining Refusals will be reallocated to the servatives). Questions: The computer tables attached in PDF format show each question, in full, in the order they were put to respondents, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data including but not limited to that published. Further enquiries: martin.boon@icmunlimited.com British Polling Council: ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

3 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Yes 0 % 0 00% 00% 00% 00% % 0 % % % 0% 0 0 % Yes where living now 0 % 0 % % 0 Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 0 No 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

4 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QR. As far as you know, is your name on the electoral register, that is, the official list of people who can vote, either where you are living now or somewhere else? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Yes % 0 00% % % 00% % % 00% % % 00% 0 00% % 00% % Yes where living now % 00 0 % 00 % % % 0 % 00% 0 0 Yes somewhere else/ another address 0 No 0 % 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

5 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Absolutely certain to vote 0 % % 0 0 % 0% 0 0% 00 0% 0 0% 0 % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 % % 0 % % 0 0% % 0% 0 0% % % % % % Certain not to vote 0% 0 0 Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

6 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QA. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Absolutely certain to vote 0 0 % 0% 0 % 0 % 0 0 0% 0 0% 0% 0% % 0 % % % 0 % % 0 0% Certain not to vote 0 0 Refused Mean Standard deviation Standard error Prepared by ICM Research fidential

7 Region Educational attainment Social Class Working status Ethnicity Age Gender Still Secon Higher Not Work Work Eng Mid Scotstudyin dary / Degree degree work Part Full Non land South lands North Wales land g NVQ / NVQ / NVQ DE C C AB Student Retired ing time time white White + + Female Male servative 0% 0% 0% % % % % % Labour 0% % 0% % % Liberal Democrat % % UK Independence Party () 0 0 Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru % 0 0 Green Another party Would not vote 0% % 0% 0 0 Refused Page Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QB. The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Prepared by ICM Research fidential

8 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table QB. The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party would you vote for? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all servative 00% 0 0 0% 0 Labour 00% 0 0% 0 0% % 0% Liberal Democrat % 0 0% % 0 % 0 UK Independence Party () 00% Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green 0 0 0% Another party Would not vote 0 0 0% 0 % 0 0% 0 0 Refused 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

9 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g servative 0% 0 % 0% Labour 0 0% 00 % % 0% 0 Liberal Democrat % UK Independence Party () Scottish National Party/SNP % Plaid Cymru 0% Green 0 Another party Prepared by ICM Research fidential

10 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Data derived from: Q.A Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election, while others have said they would vote. How certain is it that you would actually vote in a general election if it were to be held tomorrow? On a ten point scale where 0 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and means you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote? Q.B The servatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,, and other parties would fight a new General Election in your area. If there were a General Election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (), don't know who they would vote for () or refuse to answer () THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all servative 00% % Labour 00% 0 0 % 0 Liberal Democrat 00% 0% % UK Independence Party () 00% % 0 Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru Green Another party Prepared by ICM Research fidential

11 Table Published Vote Intention Figures Percentages derived from the responses of 0 respondents Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Page Col percents servative Labour Liberal Democrat SNP Plaid Cymru Green Other Prepared by ICM Research fidential

12 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Negotiations between the UK government and the European Union are taking place. Which one of the following options would you prefer to see? Page 0 Male Gender Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g The UK leaving the EU regardless of what happens in negotiations 0 0% % % 0% 0 % A vote by MPs in Parliament to decide whether we leave the EU or not, based on the outcome of the negotiations 0 0% 0 0 0% % 0 0% 0 A second referendum allowing people to decide whether we leave the EU or not, based on the outcome of the negotiations 0 0% 0 0% 0 0 % % % 0 0% % 0 0% 0% 0% 00 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

13 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Negotiations between the UK government and the European Union are taking place. Which one of the following options would you prefer to see? Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all The UK leaving the EU regardless of what happens in negotiations % % 0 % % A vote by MPs in Parliament to decide whether we leave the EU or not, based on the outcome of the negotiations 0% % 0 % 0 0 A second referendum allowing people to decide whether we leave the EU or not, based on the outcome of the negotiations % 00 0% 0% 0 0 % % % 0% % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

14 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. Summary table Page To the British economy. To your own personal finances On the way of life in Britian today in general Positive impact 0 Negative impact Makes no difference 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

15 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. To the British economy. Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Positive impact % % 0% 0 0 % 0% % % 0% Negative impact 0 0% % 0% 0 0 % 0% 0 Makes no difference % % % 0% 0% 0% % % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

16 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. To the British economy. Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Positive impact 0 0 0% 0% % 0% % 0 % Negative impact 0% % 0 % 0% % 0 Makes no difference 0 0% 0% % 0 0% 0% 0% 0 0% % 0 % % 0% % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

17 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. To your own personal finances Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Positive impact 0 0% % 0% % 0 0% 0 Negative impact 0 0% 0 0% % % Makes no difference 0% 0 0 % 0 0% 0 0% 0% % 0 0% 0% % 0 0% 0 0 % % % 0 0% 0 0 0% 0 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

18 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. To your own personal finances Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Positive impact 0 % 0% % % % Negative impact % 0 0% 00 0% % 0 0% Makes no difference 0% 0% % % % % 0 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

19 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table 0 Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. On the way of life in Britian today in general Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Positive impact 00 % % % 0 0% 0 0% 0 % 0% % % Negative impact % 0 % % 0 0 % 0% Makes no difference % 0% 0 0% 0% 0 0% % % 0 0% 0 % 0 0 % % 0% 0% 0% % % 0 0 % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

20 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table 0 Q. Thinking about Brexit, do you think it will have a positive impact, negative impact, or make no difference. On the way of life in Britian today in general Page Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Positive impact 0 0% 0 0% % 0 % Negative impact 0% % 0 Makes no difference 0 0% 0 0% 0% % % 0% 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

21 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Britain is due to leave the EU by the end of March 0. If you HAD to choose only one of these two one emotions, would you feel more... Page Gender Male Female Age + + Work Fulltime Ethnicity Non White white Working status Work Not Part worktime ing Retired Student AB Social Class C C DE Region Mid North lands Scot land Wales England South Educational attainment Higher Secon Still degree Degree dary / studyin / NVQ / NVQ NVQ g Joy 0% 0 0 % 0 % % Despair % 0 0 % 0% 0% 0 0 0% 0% 0 % 0 0% 0 0 % 0 0% Prepared by ICM Research fidential

22 ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Table Q. Britain is due to leave the EU by the end of March 0. If you HAD to choose only one of these two one emotions, would you feel more... Page 0 Voting Intention Lab Lib Dem Other Vote In 0 General Election Lib Lab Dem EU Ref Vote in June 0 DNV/ DK EU Ref/0 voting pattern Lab Lab LD LD Very Political Interest Not Fairly very Not at all Joy % % % % 0% 0% % Despair % 0% % % % % 0 % 0 % % % 0% % Prepared by ICM Research fidential

23 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Page Gender Male Female Age + Average age Unweighted % 0 0% 0% 0. Weighted % 0 0% 0. Prepared by ICM Research fidential

24 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Page Social Grade AB C C DE Region North Midlands South Unweighted 0 0 Weighted 0 % 0 0% 0% 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

25 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Page Unweighted Weighted Working status 0 0 Fulltime 0 Parttime Not working but seeking 00 0 work or temporarily unemployed/sick Not working/not seeking 0 work Retired 0 0% Student House person/housewife/ Househusband Q.C Voting in June th 0 General Election servative 0 % Labour UK Independence Party 0 () Liberal Democrat/ Liberal Scottish National Party/SNP Plaid Cymru 0 Green Party 0 Another party Did not vote 0 Prefer not to say 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

26 Table Classification Online Poll ONLINE Fieldwork : thth January 0 Page QI. Political Interest Very interested Fairly interested Not very interested Not at all interested Interested Not Interested Unweighted 0 Weighted % 0 Prepared by ICM Research fidential

ICM Guardian Poll March 2017

ICM Guardian Poll March 2017 Choice Matters. ICM Guardian Poll March 0 Fieldwork dates: March 0 Interview method: Online Population effectively sampled: All GB adults aged + Online Sampling Method: A nationally representative sample