F A S T Update. Bosnia and Herzegovina. Quarterly Risk Assessment May to August Early warning unit

Transcription

1 Update Early warning unit Bosnia and Herzegovina Quarterly Risk ssessment May to ugust 2003 swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

2 Update Bosnia and Herzegovina May ugust 2003 Page 2 Contents Country tability and Relative orceful ctions 3 Relative Civil and Direct ctions 4 verage International Conflict and Cooperation 5 verage Domestic Conflict and Cooperation 6 ppendix: Description of indicators used 7 he Early Warning ystem 9 Contact : Phone: ax: ubscription: swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

3 Update Bosnia and Herzegovina May ugust 2003 Page 3 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions Country tability Relative orceful ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 verage number of reported events per month: 145 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he graph indicates a continuous increase in Country tability and an overall decrease of Relative orceful ctions. his trend was interrupted in July 2003 due to several violent actions, including a series of unrelated bomb explosions in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). hese incidents, however, are unlikely to have a lasting effect due to their isolated nature. he reasons for this overall decline of Relative orceful ctions have been the relative stability of the new nationalist governments in both entities and the absence of major incidents. his trend, however, should not be mistaken for a sustainable stabilization of BiH. In general, the political atmosphere is marked by a great degree of inertia. he new governments have not progressed towards significant social or economic reforms. In fact, international organizations, the Office of the High Representative in BiH (OHR) in particular, remain the only significant initiators of reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina. llegations of corruption and abuse of political power are frequent but often remain unresolved. he recent months saw for example the uncovering of serious custom fraud in Mostar and the embezzlement of 80 million Euro in the Electricity company of the erb Republic. he resignation of the Bosnian erb member of the state presidency Mirko arovic (over the involvement of erb Republic companies in weapons sales to Iraq) in March had no long-term effect, and cooperation between the erb Republic and the international organizations was not seriously affected. he main sources of instability in Bosnia are connected to tense relations between the international community and the nationalist parties as well as to continued attempts by OR to arrest Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. number of bomb blasts, in addition to attacks on a demonstration against hatred, caused an increase in Relative orceful ctions. While some of the attacks had a nationalistic motive, the background to most of these incidents remains unclear and they are likely to be related to organized crime. urthermore relations between the nationalist governments and the opposition in both entities as well as at the state-level remain very tense. ollowing a series of still unresolved bomb attacks in early ugust, the ederation security service accused the opposition leader and head of the ocial Democratic Party Zlatko Lagumdzija of being responsible and seeking to change government by a coup d état. While these accusations were clearly fabricated, they are revealing of the relations between the government and the opposition as well as the abuse of security agencies for political infighting. he current degree of stability in BiH is unlikely to be sustainable as reforms proceed only slowly and intervention by the High Representative remain an everyday feature of political life in BiH. number of scandals involving the governing parties are likely to lead to further forced or voluntary changes at the state level and within the government and administration of both entities. Dr. lorian Bieber swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

4 Update Bosnia and Herzegovina May ugust 2003 Page 4 Relative Civil and Direct ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions 0.8 Relative Direct ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 verage number of reported events per month: 145 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: ccording to the graph the analyzed period is still marked by a continued fluctuation of Relative Civil Direct ctions, which have mostly remained at a higher level than Relative Direct ctions. One sign of an improved security situation in BiH was the peaceful inauguration of the first rebuilt mosque in Banja Luka in July While the reconstruction of the main mosque in Banja Luka abandoned after the riots of nationalists in 2001 continues to be controversial, smaller mosques have been rebuilt in growing numbers throughout the erb Republic. he first visit of the pope to the erb Republic in June 2003 took place without incidents despite fears of disruption by both erb nationalist forces and Islamic extremists. Despite these encouraging sings, there have been a number of instances of ethnically motivated violence across Bosnia, which point to the continued potential of extreme nationalism. In addition to apparently ethnically motivated violence, organized crime remains a pressing problem in BiH. While some people involved in the trafficking of women and drugs have been arrested recently, the authorities appear to be unable to crack down on organized crime. Links between organized crime in the erb Republic and erbia appeared in the light of the erbian police action abre following the assassination of Zoran Djindjic in March. here have, however, not been any major police actions against groups linked to erbian organized crime in the erb Republic. he economic situation has been and is likely to be a growing source of unrest. he continued high level of unemployment and difficulties of the entities, in particular the erb Republic, to pay salaries and pensions, has lead to a number of demonstrations in the past months. One big unknown issue in BiH remains the possible response to the arrest of Karadzic or Mladic. While the arrest of alleged war criminals in recent years did not result in significant Civil Direct ctions, the apparent popularity of the two alleged war criminals among many erbs in BiH bears the danger of major unrest in case of their detention. Dr. lorian Bieber swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

5 Update Bosnia and Herzegovina May ugust 2003 Page 5 verage International Conflict and Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 verage number of reported events per month: 145 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he level of verage International Conflict continues to exceed that of Cooperation. Overall, there have been no significant changes during the past months in this trend. he recent months have been marked by renewed attempts to catch the two most senior alleged war criminals still at large. OR has reportedly undertaken a number of raids to arrest Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic. In addition, the EU and the United tates have issued visa blacklists and frozen assets of people obstructing the peace process and thought to be supporting the two fugitives. imilarly, the High Representative has frozen the accounts of people close to Karadzic and Mladic. Despite repeated announcements by international officials that the arrest of the two alleged war criminals was immanent, there have been few concrete indications that their arrest can be expected in the near future. he often-tense relations with neighboring erbia-montenegro have not seen any significant changes in recent months. he issue which continues to lead to tensions is the genocide suit BiH is leading against erbia-montenegro at the International Court of Justice. It has been repeatedly described as an obstacle for the mutual relations by erbia-montenegro and remains contested within BiH by officials from the erb Republic. source of tension between BiH and Croatia has been the unresolved access of BiH to the Croatian port of Ploce and the construction of a highway through BiH from Osijek to the driatic coast. While small segments of the highway have already been built, the decision for the construction of the bulk has not yet been taken due to the dispute over choosing the construction company between Croatia and BiH. In the light of the upcoming elections in Croatia, these issues might remain a bone of contention in the coming months. Both disputes, however, are unlikely to have a long-term impact on bilateral relations. In a controversial decision, BiH signed with the United tates a non-extradition agreement for citizens of the United tates to the International Criminal Court. his step has been criticized by the EU and is faced with muted domestic opposition in the light of the ongoing war crimes trials at the International Criminal ribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICY) in he Hague. he international environment for BiH is unlikely to change in the near future. change of power in Croatia as a result of the upcoming elections in November, can lead to a deterioration of bilateral relations. Dr. lorian Bieber swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

6 Update Bosnia and Herzegovina May ugust 2003 Page 6 verage Domestic Conflict and Cooperation verage Domestic Conflict verage Domestic Cooperation /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 verage number of reported events per month: 145 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he level of verage Domestic Conflict continues to exceed verage Domestic Cooperation. lthough there has been some fluctuation in past months, the proportion between the two indicators has remained stable. he drop of both verage Domestic Conflict and Cooperation in ugust is to be seen in regard to the politically passive summer season. ttempts by key international organizations, especially the High Representative, to accelerate the pace of reforms to allow for their eventual withdrawal have been delayed by obstruction of the nationalist parties. he three nationalist parties in power at the state level and in the two entities, have been continuing their coalition governments. However, these coalitions have been fragile due to often opposing political positions on key issues, such as the integration of the tax system or the armed forces. source of contention has been the unification of the school system: new statewide law, passed in June, created a framework to integrate previously ethnically segregated schools. During the process of implementation there has been resistance in parts of the ederation against the integration of previously separate Croat and Bosniak schools. While the integration was accomplished in most cases, the implementation was dependent on international intervention. In Mostar, the Office of the High Representatives fined the Croat national party HDZ (Croat Democratic Union) approximately Euro for obstructing the integration of schools. he policy of fining nationalist parties for obstructing the integration of institutions has also been used in other contexts. Both the HDZ and the D (Bosniac nationalist Party of Democratic ction) were fined approximately Euro for failing to agree on a new integrated statute for the city of Mostar. s in the case of schools, the fining proved to be effective and the new statute was adopted immediately after the imposition of the fine. his points out the willingness of the nationalist parties to obstruct the attempts of the international community to integrate institutions only in the absence of penalties. Inasmuch, these conflictual events might lead to a more cooperative environment where institutions are increasingly integrated and where nationalist parties agree to changes in order to prevent financial penalties. One of the few successful reform measures appears to be the unification of the tax collection system in ugust for entire BiH. Considering the pressing economic and social problems in BiH and the apparent inability of the governments to tackle these issues, a continued high degree of external intervention as well as an increasing economic crisis, which might destabilize the governmental coalition, can be expected. Dr. lorian Bieber swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

7 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 7 Variable Name Description / Definition IDE categories: a count of all coded events with WEI cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all ll Events WEI cue categories) plus an additional 11 IDE event cue categories (Event type: other ). WEI categories: a count of all coded events with cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all WEI cue ll ctions categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, Direct ctions demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes orceful ctions non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Relative ctions Proportion of ll ctions to ll Events. Relative Direct ctions Relative orceful ctions Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions (WEI-Categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Civil ector Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22) plus an additional 11 ll Civil Events IDE event forms. his event count is limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only nongovernmental, or civil sector actors. ll Civil ctions Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, Civil Direct demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action ctions limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Civil orceful ctions Relative Civil ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions Relative Civil orceful ctions he Indicator Civil orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by non-governmental, or civil sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Proportion of all civil actions to all civil events (with non-governmental, or civil sector actors). Proportion of Civil Direct ctions compared to ll Civil ctions. Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Proportion of Civil orceful ction events compared to ll Civil Direct ctions. he Indicator Civil orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by non-governmental, or civil sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. ector ll Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22) plus an additional 11 Events IDE event forms. his event count is limited to political sector, or government actors. ll Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only the ctions political sector, or government actors. Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass Direct ctions direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. he Indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by political, or government sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, orceful ctions and military engagement. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

8 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 8 Variable Name Relative ctions Relative Direct ctions Relative orceful ctions Conflict Carrying Capacity Country tability verage verage Domestic Conflict verage Domestic Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation Description / Definition Proportion of all ctions to all Events (with political, or government sector actors). Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions. Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. he Indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by political, or government sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. he Conflict Carrying Capacity (or CCC) is a composed index that depicts the overall stability of the country or region of interest. he CCC is operationalized in terms of the multiplicative interaction among three Proportional measures: (1) civil contentiousness or the Proportion of civil actions that are reported as contentious or "direct" and thus challenge (at least implicitly) the state's monopoly on conflict regulation; (2) state repression or the Proportion of state actions that are reported as extra-institutional or "direct" both in response to direct challenges from the civil sector and those initiated by the state to repress and control opposition; and (3) violent contention or the Proportion of actions entailing physical damage to persons or property. the index is scaled between 0 and 1, where 1 means high and 0 low stability. he country stability index is another version of the CCC measure with minor changes in order to improve the responsiveness of the index to events that influence the stability of a country. indicators are used to display Proportions of conflict and cooperation events in time. Each event category is assigned a rating (value), ranging from -10 (extreme conflict) to 10 (extreme cooperation). Zero value events are excluded from these calculations. he verage indicator is a cumulative average of all events that are classified with a positive or negative value by 's conflict/cooperation scale. he indicator displays the mean of the conflict/cooperation event values, excluding all zero value events. he verage Domestic Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative () values of all conflictive intrastate or domestic events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative values divided by the total number of conflictive domestic events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he verage Domestic Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive () values of all cooperative intrastate or domestic events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive values divided by the total number of cooperative domestic events). he verage International Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative () values of all conflictive interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative values divided by the total number of conflictive international events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he verage International Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive () values of all cooperative interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive values divided by the total number of cooperative international events). swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

9 Update he Early Warning ystem Page 9 Who are we? (German acronym for Early nalysis of ensions and act-finding ) is the early warning project of swisspeace, based in Berne, witzerland. In 1998 the wiss gency for Development and Cooperation (DC) assigned swisspeace to set up a political early warning system for early identification of impending armed conflict and political crisis situations. What do we want? aims to enhance political decision makers ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner, so that coherent political strategies can be formulated either to prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or to identify opportunities for peacebuilding. How do we work? uses both quantitative and qualitative methods for its analysis. he centerpiece in the quantitative analysis is based on event data analysis and the respective tools developed in the framework of the Program on Nonviolent anctions and Cultural urvival (PONC) at Harvard University. he logic of event data analysis is fairly simple: all events considered relevant to conflict escalation and de-escalation are assigned a certain numeric value according to a distinct conflict scale. hese values can then be added up for specific time intervals and graphically displayed in a curve over time. he quality and quantity of data input is crucial for the success of such a method. In order to gather the quality and quantity of data required to suit early warning purposes, sets up its own local information networks (LINs) and thus overcomes shortcomings of existing information sources (e.g., international news wires). unique set of data is collected for each country completely independently from Western news-media coverage. or qualitative data analysis, contracts internationally renowned country experts. What are our products? products are risk assessments tailored to individual customers' needs. he standard product ( Update ) consists of three to five charts depicting the latest conflict related trends and a concise expert interpretation. s the time-series of collected data grow, analysts will apply statistical methods to go beyond retrospective description and forecast future developments. Updates are available in either hard copy or electronic form, covering time intervals as chosen by the customer. Which countries do we monitor? frica: sia: Europe: ngola, Burundi, DRC/Kivu region, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, omalia fghanistan, India/Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus region, Pakistan, ajikistan, Uzbekistan lbania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, erbia and Montenegro Middle East: Palestine swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation