Early warning unit. F A S T Update. Macedonia. Quarterly Risk Assessment May to July swisspeace Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

Transcription

1 Update Early warning unit Macedonia Quarterly Risk ssessment May to July 2003 swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

2 Update Macedonia May July 2003 Page 2 Contents Country tability and Relative orceful ctions 3 Relative Civil and Government Direct ctions 4 verage International Conflict and Cooperation 5 verage Domestic Conflict and Cooperation 6 ppendix: Description of indicators used 7 he Early Warning ystem 9 Contact : Phone: ax: ubscription: swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

3 Update Macedonia May July 2003 Page 3 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions Risk ssessment: Relative orceful ctions continue to display a high fluctuation. he peak in June reflects terrorist attacks and an increased number of clashes among organized crime groups. he destabilizing impact of these developments in regard to the Country tability is limited. In general the situation in the country is improving due to the ongoing implementation of the Ohrid ramework greement. he changes in legislation, a result of the above mentioned ramework greement, are crucial for the relaxation of relations between the lbanian and Macedonian population. he majority of these changes have already been adopted and some are still in governmental or parliamentarian procedure. It can be expected that the entire process is going to be completed by the end of November During the analyzed period (May July) the opposition parties of ethnic lbanians in Macedonia (DP and PDP) that have suffered a defeat at last years elections, achieved a higher level of consensus than ever before. ogether they pursue a more radical course in order to attract the attention of ethnic lbanians. he DP reincarnated the idea of the referendum for self-determination of the ethnic lbanians community in Macedonia. It includes the possibility of proclaiming independence and secession of the western part of Macedonia. In addition, both parties initiated a change of the Macedonian flag as well as of the national anthem to reflect the bi-national and multiethnic character of the country. Both initiatives highly jeopardize the unitary character of the country and aggravate interethnic relations, especially in the eve of accomplishing the obligations of the ramework greement. In the forthcoming period the main concerns in regard to the Country tability remain to be the interethnic relations, the illegal possession of small arms and light weapons as well as the activities of organized crime and extremist groups. s a result of the poor preparation of the campaign for the collection of small arms and light weapons, expected to be carried out in November 2003, this undertaking is feared to be unsuccessful and could thus increase distrust between lbanians and Macedonians. nother source of conflict could be found in the process of decentralization which includes a reduction of the local self-governing units (approximately 60 instead of previously 123) within Macedonia. he constitutional provision determines that if a group accounts for more than 20% of all inhabitants of one unit, it would be allowed to use its own language in the official communication. he new boundaries and the ethnic composition of the new units are the reason for political dispute. Zoran Jachev Country tability Relative orceful ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 91 Indicator description: see appendix swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

4 Update Macedonia May July 2003 Page 4 Relative Civil and Government Direct ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions 0.8 Relative Government Direct ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 91 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: fter a decline of Relative Civil Direct ctions during the last reporting period (March and pril) the graph again displays an increase of Civil Direct ctions due to more violent events. In contrast the Relative Government Direct ctions continue to run on a low level with a slight increase in June. hese violent events, which occurred in kopje, etovo, Kumanovo and truga, have been small scale terrorist actions without any casualties, but prove the existence of extremist groups opposed to the stabilization of the country. o far there is no official confirmation about the identity of the groups or individuals responsible for these attacks, but the lbanian National rmy (N) claims ownership. In addition, constant fighting among organized crime groups (most of them with an lbanian background) over the control of territory and profits from illegal activities can be reported. In one specific clash four individuals (all of them ethnic lbanians) were killed in kopje. he target of the action and most prominent victim was a former commander of the Macedonian UCK (Ushtria Clirimtare Kombetare). In regard to the high presence of illegal small arms and light weapons among Macedonia s citizens, the number of crimes committed with fire arms is constantly increasing and reached the highest murder rate in the last ten years. he government is trying to improve the security of the citizens, but results are limited because of the 1) severe restraints in achieving constant control throughout the country, 2) lack of cooperation with the citizens, and 3) the widespread gun culture. One success in the fight against organized crime was the arrest of the unofficial king of prostitution and woman trafficking in the Balkans, Dilaver Bojku Leku. fter nearly a decade of almost public development of his business he was sentenced to half a year in prison. t the time being the anticorruption campaign against former government officials proceeds at the time with a lower intensity. Increasing efforts can be expected from eptember on, when court proceedings for up-to-date convicted individuals are to begin. Ongoing public demonstrations regarding the unsatisfactory social situation in the country were not encountered by direct actions from the government. he only exception was a strike of dismissed employees in front of the Parliament. In order to prevent the demonstrators from entering the building, police intervened according to the law. It is expected that the Macedonian government will proceed with its course of reforms and its fight against organized crime and corruption, but domestic and international skepticism regarding its capacity to succeed are more present in the public than ever. Zoran Jachev swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

5 Update Macedonia May July 2003 Page 5 verage International Conflict and Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 91 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: During the first two months of the analyzed period the levels of verage International Conflict and Cooperation were generally increasing, whereas July shows for both curves a decreasing trend. he rise in International Cooperation can be attributed to considerably strong efforts undertaken by the Macedonian government in order to advance the country s standing in bi- and multilateral relations, especially to improve Macedonia s chances for future accession to the North tlantic reaty Organization (NO) and the European Union (EU). he Macedonian government showed even unrealistic expectations from the EU ummit in hessaloniki (June 2003) excpecting advanced corporation with the Union including the possibility to formally apply for membership. urthermore, cooperation between lbania, Croatia and Macedonia, the more advanced aspirants for NO and EU membership, continued to increase, despite Croatia s endeavors to leave this group in order to track alone for faster integration. In general, bilateral relations with neighboring countries and Kosovo show a positive trend including meetings of high level representatives, despite the fact that from time to time the emergence of still open issues influence the relations in a negative way. he most dominant negative issue during the last months was the dispute between the erbian and the Macedonian Orthodox Church about the autonomy of the Macedonian church. s both churches continue to have high influence on the political life of the two countries, tensions among them remain a constant negative factor for neighboring relations between erbia and Macedonia. he main conflictive issue in relation to non-neighboring countries was the agreement between Macedonia and the United tates regarding the non-extradition of merican citizens to the International Criminal Court. Like other transitional countries, Macedonia was in the unpleasant situation to sign the agreement with the United tates on one side and to maintain good relations with the EU on the other. Despite the critics from the EU, the Macedonian government signed the agreement which is now in Parliamentarian procedure for adoption. Macedonia s Members of Parliament are thus in the difficult position and under pressure to choose between their two most important partners, especially after the EU openly asked the Parliament to think twice before voting for the agreement. Besides, the Macedonian government and representatives of the International Community agreed upon the realization of the Campaign for the Collection of mall rms and Light Weapons for November or the near future it is expected that Macedonia will try its best to keep good relations with the EU as well as with United tates. In regard to this, the most important challenge will be the decision on the adoption of the agreement regarding the International Criminal Court by the Macedonian parliament. Zoran Jachev swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

6 Update Macedonia May July 2003 Page 6 verage Domestic Conflict and Cooperation verage Domestic Conflict verage Domestic Cooperation -1 7/02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 91 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: In comparison to the high rise of the verage Domestic Conflict curve, verage Domestic Cooperation remains relatively stable with only a slight increase in June. he conflictive development occurred due to the radicalization of demands of the ethnic lbanian opposition parties and the backlash by ethnic Macedonians. his leads to the lowest level of Domestic Cooperation for the entire period of monitoring in Macedonia. he developments over the last 3 months show substantial changes in almost all major opposition parties. New leaders were elected such as Nikola Gruevski (young and reform oriented former Minister of inance) for the VMRO-DPMNE and bdulmenaf Bedzeti (former Minister of ransport) for the PDP. In the same period the leaders of the DP (the President rben Xhaferi and Vice-president Menduh haci) resigned. his seems to be a political maneuver, which occurred under the pressure of the International Community, and is related to their radical attitudes and uncooperativeness in implementing the Ohrid ramework greement. till, the Congress of DP must confirm the resignations of both politicians which is unlikely to happen. he above mentioned new leadership brought some changes into political life. VMRO-DPMNE and DM started a series of talks and initiated a process of ameliorating their relations. lthough being severe enemies during the parliamentarian debates they have managed to reach basic consensus regarding issues of fundamental national interest. hese indications of a decrease in animosities between the two largest ethnic Macedonian parties may contribute to a easier implementation of the ramework greement and to the stabilization of the country. On the ethnic lbanian side, the former harsh rivals - the ethnic lbanian oppositional parties (DP and PDP) - reached a consensus on their common goals. hey now perform along the same lines, respecting each other like never before. his kind of new cooperations seem to be positive for the future stabilization of the country. However, since it takes place only within the same ethnic entity, it may be counterproductive by further polarizing the ethnic groups. he most challenging issue for the relations between the major ethnic groups is going to be the result of the census, expected to be published by the end of the year. lthough the census was conducted almost a year ago, part of the results, including the ethnic distribution of the population, is still undisclosed. Inasmuch doubts arose, that the percentage of the lbanians in the country could be less than 20%. If this would be the case, the whole concept of the ramework greement could be challenged and this could jeopardize all achievements in interethnic relations of the last two years. Zoran Jachev swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

7 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 7 Variable Name Description / Definition WEI categories: a count of all coded events with cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all WEI cue ll ctions categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, Direct ctions demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes orceful ctions non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Relative ctions Proportion of ll ctions to ll Events. Relative Direct ctions Relative orceful ctions Civil ector ll Civil ctions Relative Civil ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions Relative Civil orceful ctions Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions (WEI-Categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only nongovernmental, or civil sector actors. Proportion of all civil actions to all civil events (with non-governmental, or civil sector actors). Proportion of Civil Direct ctions compared to ll Civil ctions. Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Proportion of Civil orceful ction events compared to ll Civil Direct ctions. he Indicator Civil orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by non-governmental, or civil sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Government ector ll Government Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only the ctions political sector, or government actors. Relative Government ctions Relative Government Direct ctions Relative Government orceful ctions Proportion of all Government ctions to all Government Events (with political, or government sector actors). Proportion of Government Direct ctions compared to ll Government ctions. Government Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. Proportion of Government orceful ction events compared to ll Government Direct ctions. he Indicator Government orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by political, or government sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

8 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 8 Variable Name Conflict Carrying Capacity Country tability verage verage Domestic Conflict verage Domestic Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation Description / Definition he Conflict Carrying Capacity (or CCC) is a composed index that depicts the overall stability of the country or region of interest. he CCC is operationalized in terms of the multiplicative interaction among three Proportional measures: (1) civil contentiousness or the Proportion of civil actions that are reported as contentious or "direct" and thus challenge (at least implicitly) the state's monopoly on conflict regulation; (2) state repression or the Proportion of state actions that are reported as extra-institutional or "direct" both in response to direct challenges from the civil sector and those initiated by the state to repress and control opposition; and (3) violent contention or the Proportion of actions entailing physical damage to persons or property. the index is scaled between 0 and 1, where 1 means high and 0 low stability. he country stability index is another version of the CCC measure with minor changes in order to improve the responsiveness of the index to events that influence the stability of a country. indicators are used to display Proportions of conflict and cooperation events in time. Each event category is assigned a rating (value), ranging from -10 (extreme conflict) to 10 (extreme cooperation). Zero value events are excluded from these calculations. he verage indicator is a cumulative average of all events that are classified with a positive or negative value by 's conflict/cooperation scale. he indicator displays the mean of the conflict/cooperation event values, excluding all zero value events. he verage Domestic Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative () values of all conflictive intrastate or domestic events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative values divided by the total number of conflictive domestic events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he verage Domestic Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive () values of all cooperative intrastate or domestic events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive values divided by the total number of cooperative domestic events). he verage International Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative () values of all conflictive interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative values divided by the total number of conflictive international events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he verage International Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive () values of all cooperative interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive values divided by the total number of cooperative international events). swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

9 Update he Early Warning ystem Page 9 Who are we? (German acronym for Early nalysis of ensions and act-finding ) is the early warning project of swisspeace, based in Berne, witzerland. In 1998 the wiss gency for Development and Cooperation (DC) assigned swisspeace to set up a political early warning system for early identification of impending armed conflict and political crisis situations. What do we want? aims to enhance political decision makers ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner, so that coherent political strategies can be formulated either to prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or to identify opportunities for peacebuilding. How do we work? uses both quantitative and qualitative methods for its analysis. he centerpiece in the quantitative analysis is based on event data analysis and the respective tools developed in the framework of the Program on Nonviolent anctions and Cultural urvival (PONC) at Harvard University. he logic of event data analysis is fairly simple: all events considered relevant to conflict escalation and de-escalation are assigned a certain numeric value according to a distinct conflict scale. hese values can then be added up for specific time intervals and graphically displayed in a curve over time. he quality and quantity of data input is crucial for the success of such a method. In order to gather the quality and quantity of data required to suit early warning purposes, sets up its own local information networks (LINs) and thus overcomes shortcomings of existing information sources (e.g., international news wires). unique set of data is collected for each country completely independently from Western news-media coverage. or qualitative data analysis, contracts internationally renowned country experts. What are our products? products are risk assessments tailored to individual customers' needs. he standard product ( Update ) consists of three to five charts depicting the latest conflict related trends and a concise expert interpretation. s the time-series of collected data grow, analysts will apply statistical methods to go beyond retrospective description and forecast future developments. Updates are available in either hard copy or electronic form, covering time intervals as chosen by the customer. Which countries do we monitor? frica: sia: Europe: ngola, Burundi, DRC/Kivu region, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, omalia fghanistan, India/Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus region, Pakistan, ajikistan, Uzbekistan lbania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, erbia and Montenegro Middle East: Palestine swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation