F A S T Update. Rwanda. Semi-annual Risk Assessment November 2005 to May swisspeace

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1 F A S T Update Rwanda Semi-annual Risk Assessment November 2005 to May 2006 F T A S

2 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 2 Contents Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative) 3 Conflictive Non-Government and Government Events (relative) 5 Conflictive and Cooperative International Events (average weighted) 7 Appendix: Description of indicators used 9 The FAST International Early Warning Program 10 Subscription: Contact FAST International: Phone: Fax: mailto:fast@swisspeace.ch Country Expert: The author prefers to remain anonymous

3 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 3 Country Stability and Conflictive Events (relative) Average number of reported events per month: 105 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: The level of Country Stability has remained high over the last six months, a situation that should not come as a surprise, as stability can be produced by force and repression as well. The general impression the succession of events throughout the period conveys, is one of permanent quest for balance between the production of a favourable image of the country and its government and a further strengthening of the current elite running the country. A drop in Conflictive Events coincided with the February grass-root elections held in Rwanda. While the Ligue des droits de la personne dans la région des Grands Lacs (Ldgl) made public the reports of its observers, it also expressed hopes that the failures and irregularities observed would serve as a lesson for elections at a higher level. The chairman of the observers representing the forum of the political parties, on his side, expressed his satisfaction over the fact that some controversial results had prompted the electoral committees to go over the exercise again. During the recent months, expression and repression seemed to compete one against the other when it went about building and communicating an attractive image of the country internally as well as externally. Donors generously gave aid to Rwanda, being asked, however, to give their aid directly to the government rather than channel it through NGO s. Attempts were made at attracting investors and at encouraging local investments by Rwandans, while officials were recommended to act without arrogance with donors. Meanwhile, a meeting was organized to explain representatives of diplomatic missions and NGO s what the administrative changes (the division of Rwanda in five administrative regions: North, East, South, West, and Kigali) mean and asked for the continuation of their support. The special representative of the UN Secretary General for the Great Lakes region announced the Great Lakes countries summit will take place in Kenya in August this year; the meeting will look at the issue of peace and stability and bring together representatives of all countries of Central and East Africa concerned with the peace processes in the region. Although events show ups and downs in the relationships with Uganda and despite being marred with mutual suspicion, accusations, and denials, they essentially remained unchanged. Attempts of repatriating exiles from Tanzania and Burundi were successful, while the relations with Uganda remained marred by mutual suspicion, accusations and denials. A visit by the new President of Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, belonging to the Hutu-dominated Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie Forces pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD- FDD) coincided with declarations in Rwanda about the dangers of ethnic manipulations.

4 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 4 Kivu remains a factor of instability in the area, with an intensification of fighting between the army of DRCongo supported by MONUC in the Rutshuru area in January and allegations of Rwandan support to rebel leader Laurent Nkunda. Attacks by the rebels caused people to flee to Uganda (May) while the half-brother of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, Salim Saleh, was accused of supporting Nkunda and his rebels. The outcome of the general elections due to take place in late July in DRCongo could have consequences on the situation in the area, but their trajectory is currently unforeseeable. Meanwhile, the international community is getting aware of the threat economically emerging countries can mean to the exploitation of natural resources in Eastern Congo. A balance is sought through various means, including the traceability of minerals extracted in the area and the rebuilding of infrastructures. The prospect of reopening the Rwandan diplomatic representation in Kinshasa (unofficially already since May 13) hints at hope. However, how the return to a formal economy in Eastern Congo and the pacification of the region are interlinked still needs further scrutiny. Probably, the forthcoming elections in DRCongo will help in this respect. Possibly related to many aspects of the regional and international situation are the apparent tensions in the relationships with Belgium, with the arrest (and later release) of Father Theunis for being involved in the genocide the interdiction to take off applied to a Rwandan aircraft landed in Brussels followed by the same interdiction applied in Kigali against a SN Brussels Airlines plane, and the subsequent cancellation of all Belgian flights to Kigali, appeals to collaborate regarding the arrest of genocide perpetrators, the discovery of the corpse of a former Rwandan Minister accused of genocide in Brussels, and the call by a group of Rwandan exiles to enquire about the alleged crimes of President Paul Kagame. Visits of high ranking officials in Kigali helped ease these tensions and settle the matter, with the Belgians reaffirming their willingness to collaborate in the prosecution of genocide accomplices and perpetrators.

5 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 5 Conflictive Non-Government and Government Events (relative) Average number of reported events per month: 105 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: As underlined in the previous (May to October 2005), the suppression of the political opposition as well as civil society does not mean the absence of conflict. The disbanding of the Ligue pour la Protection et la Défense des Droits de l Homme au Rwanda (LIPRODHOR) in July 2005, was followed by a disquieting evolution of the Rwandan press during the period under consideration here. While several journalists were attacked, imprisoned or censured, Rwandan independent journalists protested, on April 26, against the election of the director of the New Times (a pro-government newspaper), as a member of the High Council of the Press. A difficult balance between information, positive critical insight and national unity is being sought after. While the book published by Lieutenant Abdul Ruzibiza, a former member of the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA), was not considered worth any comment (see Jeune Afrique ), the President of Ibuka, an umbrella organisation of genocide survivors, initiated a law suit in France against French journalist Pierre Péan who is, among other charges, accused of slander after the publication of his very controversial book Noires fureurs, Blancs menteurs. MP Brigitte Tuyishimye resigned, on December 16 th, from her membership she had been accused of divisionist declarations about genocide survivors. The progress of gacaca procedures remains uncertain, with different numbers of the handled caseload being given by the National Service of Gacaca Jurisdictions and other agencies, such as Angola Press (March 16), according to which 390 persons were put in custody for refusing to testify before the gacaca courts. Several witnesses to the gacaca courts were killed and Ibuka called for a better protection of the witnesses. With weekly compulsory attendance to gacaca sessions, public awareness faces a reminder of social conflicts while taking part in an attempt of their resolution. It is not impossible that some Rwandans cross the borders for fear of gacaca tribunals that are rumored not to be free of political plotting. Jean-Leonard Rugamabage, a reporter for the newspaper Umuco who reported alleged corruption cases among judges in the gacaca courts was sentenced to one-year prison on November 29. Furthermore, some decisions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) caused an outcry in Rwanda, as it deliberated about probably transferring Theoneste Bagosora to Norway, and for upholding the acquittal of two former politicians considered as extremists. A call was issued by the Rwanda government for an international cooperation leading to the arrest of all genocide accomplices. Aside from political problems the country faced during this period, there were frequent reports of trafficking in illegal alcohol. Additionally, trafficking in drugs and weapons (or minerals such as gold) sometimes caused random house searching. Food shortages in a few areas of the country were reported, as well as unrest in the Rwamagana prison, ideological dissensions, job losses among civil servants, and chronic water and power shortages

6 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 6 However, other developments need to be mentioned as well, such as the improvements in telecommunications, the contributions of prisoners to the reconstruction of the roads in Kigali, the measures taken to send street children and jobless back home, attempts to re-integrate ex-fars, or the calls to better protect women and girls against sexual violence. On the economic front, officials urged businessmen to invest locally, to produce tea and coffee for exportation but also to refrain from landgrabbing. The British-American corporation Tobacco-Rwanda, previously known as Tabarwanda, is said to have become the single largest taxpayer and economic contributor in the country. The overall impression produced by the superposition of the curves may raise questions about the general stability of the government in the longer run. Encounters between officials and journalists result in the questioning of both democracy and legitimacy while allegations of corruption on one side and of negationism on the other emerge more frequently. The increase in reports on trafficking and searches could hint at an increase in international commercial links, but also at a strengthening of control by the state. Discontent could rise from job retrenchments and increase in costs for schooling or transport among others, and add to the unease gacaca courts are said to entertain.

7 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 7 Conflictive and Cooperative International Events (average weighted) Average number of reported events per month: 105 Indicator description: see appendix Risk Assessment: As shown on the above graphs, the Cooperative International Events curve has been remarkably stable for the last months, despite the ups and downs between Rwanda and Uganda. Meanwhile, Conflictive International Events further diminished after a settlement was reached in the case of the Belgian priest Father Theunis, and the curve remained on a relative low level for the six first months of the year. Rwanda kept the favour of international donors. As noted in the previous, the World Bank approved a US$ 55 million grant last November, and since then also helped with education, agriculture and mining programs. Additionally, USAID launched a US$ 40 million program to fight HIV/AIDS, Sweden supported education, good governance and human rights programs, Belgium and the Netherlands supported the gacaca jurisdictions, the UK signed an agreement to donate US$ 40 million to the government, etc. Good governance has now become a key theme within Rwanda s domestic and international politics. Kigali hosted the 6 th African Governance Forum (May 6), with a parallel session on the role of journalists in promoting good governance. On this respect, Rwanda agreed to subject itself to a proposed African Peer Review Mechanism. Following the visit to the Great Lakes region of the UN Security Council delegation from November 4 to 11, there were several demonstrations of good will towards and by other African states. Examples include the Rwandan presence in peace keeping operations in Darfur, a visit of General James Kabarebe (Chief of the Rwandan Army) in Burundi, the visits of Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza and Burundian Vice-President Martin Nduwimana a in Rwanda, the visit by one of the four Vice-Presidents of DRCongo, Azarias Ruberwa, and congratulations sent to Yoweri Museveni after his re-election on February 23. However, an estimated 4 million refugees and displaced persons in the Great Lakes region remain a concern for the UN. Concurrently, the heads of the WFP, UNICEF and UNHCR paid a visit to Rwanda in March. Within the period under consideration, a few ad hoc settlements were reached with neighbouring countries, while at the same time no progress was achieved towards a settlement between the Rwandan rebel factions remaining in Eastern Congo and Kigali. The Rwandan government made several attempts to attract foreign direct investments. The Director General of the World Trade Organization visited Rwanda and President Kagame met, on March 23, with the US Ambassador to Rwanda to discuss issues related to an American offer to help increasing energy production. For June, the building of a road between Kigali and the supposed site of a new international airport in Bugesa is scheduled. In the same period, the exploitation of methan gas in lake Kivu which

8 Rwanda November 2005 to May 2006 Page 8 could proof helpful in the eventual economic development was scheduled to commence. On a small scale, this could work as a substitute for the fuel used by the cement factory of Cyangugu. The overall impression these activities create, however, is that planning and progress is mostly directed towards a small, largely urban part of the population which is able to afford these improvements. The recent development of Kigali is well in tune with an extroversion of the government but contrasts with shortages in water and power supplies, and with a general state of poverty in the countryside. To what extent an increase in economic inequality between Rwandans at home could find an echo with Rwandans in exile remains to be seen; however, the close links city dwellers used to keep with their families mostly residing in the countryside, could be instrumental in mobilizing their members in exile as those can assess the changes. Relations between the Rwandan government and exiles have not improved during the first half of The drifts towards dictatorship stigmatized by Jean-Claude Willame in an article he published in the Belgian review La Revue Nouvelle in October 2005 was followed by the publication of Ruzibiza s book Rwanda. L histoire secrète in November, then by the pamphlet Noires fureurs, blancs menteurs of the French journalist Péan in January. One can suppose this last book will have little influence on the course of events as it caused various negative reactions and created confusion, but one can wonder whether such publications coincide with a rising dissent or scepticism about the current government, notwithstanding the willingness to collaborate when it goes about genocide suspects. The outcome of the upcoming elections in DRC could modify the balance of the region. This equilibrium is currently based on conflict and the exploitation of resources. As is often the case, economic interests could foster Western initiatives to regain official control over the area, building on any emerging legitimacy in DRC to re-formalize economic circuits. How Uganda and Rwanda, among other actors, would stand in this new picture remains a matter for conjectures and it is not impossible that new approaches in the field of cooperation could also result from their own orientations towards any political change in DRC.

9 Appendix: Description of indicators used Page 9 Country Stability Conflictive Events (relative) Conflictive Non-Government Events (relative) Conflictive Government Events (relative) Cooperative International Events (average weighted) Conflictive International Events (average weighted) The Country Stability index reflects three independent factors: (i) challenges by non-government actors to the state's monopoly of force; (ii) state repression; and (iii) violence entailing physical force against persons or property. The index is scaled between 0 and 1, where 1 means high and 0 low stability. Number of Events (i) that have a negative value on the IDEA conflictcooperation scale* divided by the number of all reported events. The Indicator has a range between 0 and 1. Number of Events (i) that have a negative value on the IDEA conflictcooperation scale* and (ii) where at least one Initiator is a nongovernment actor divided by the number of all reported events. The Indicator has a range between 0 and 1. Number of Events (i) that have a negative value on the IDEA conflictcooperation scale* and (ii) where at least one Initiator is a government actor divided by the number of all reported events. The Indicator has a range between 0 and 1. Based on the IDEA cooperation-conflict scale: Average weight of Events (i) that have a positive value on the IDEA conflict-cooperation scale* and (ii) where at least one actor comes from outside the country. The Indicator has a range between -13 and 8. Based on the IDEA cooperation-conflict scale: Average weight of Events (i) that have a negative value on the IDEA conflict-cooperation scale* and (ii) where at least one actor comes from outside the country. The Indicator has a range between -13 and 8. *The IDEA cooperation-conflict scale is a general weighting scale that attaches a weight to every event. The scale has a range from 13 to +8. Event types that are regarded as cooperative have positive values, conflictive event types have negative values.

10 The FAST International Early Warning Program Page 10 Who are we? FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, based in Bern, Switzerland. The program is funded and utilized by an international consortium of development agencies consisting of the Austrian Development Agency (ADA), Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). What do we want to achieve? FAST International aims at enhancing political decision makers and their offices ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner so that coherent political strategies can be formulated to either prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or identify windows of opportunity for peacebuilding. How do we work? FAST International uses both qualitative and quantitative methods, with the combination of methods being determined in each case by customer needs. The centerpiece of FAST International is the collection of single cooperative and conflictive events by means of a web-based software, applied by local staff using a coding scheme called IDEA (Integrated Data for Event Analysis), which is based on the WEIS (World Interaction Survey) coding scheme. The monitoring by FAST International is done independently from Western media coverage, thus providing for a constant influx of information. This information is collected by FAST International s own Local Information Networks (LINs). The quantitative empirical analysis is based on composed indicators developed within the IDEA framework. Since even the most profound quantitative analysis requires interpretation, FAST International cooperates with renowned country/area experts. What are our products? FAST International offers different early warning products tailored to customer needs. The only standard product available to the general public is the, which provides the reader with an overview of developments on a semi-annual basis. It consists of three to five tension barometers (graphs), displaying cooperative and conflictive developments, which are analyzed by FAST s country/area experts on the basis of specific indicators. Whenever major changes occur in one of the countries or regions under scrutiny, FAST releases Special Updates, which follow the structure of the regular s. s are available in either hard copy, in electronic form on the respective country page or by subscription. Which countries do we currently monitor? Africa: Asia: Europe: Angola, Burundi, DRC/Kivu region, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia Afghanistan, India/Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Russian Federation/North Caucasus region, Serbia-Montenegro