2/10/2006 KIGALI, RWANDA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1

Transcription

1 KIGALI, RWANDA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT 2006 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1 Feb. 10, 2006

2 KIGALI, RWANDA: SECURITY ASSESSMENT Country Rwanda is a small country in central Africa bordered by Burundi to the south, Tanzania to the east, Uganda to the north and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to the west. The country is a former Belgian colony that gained independence in Rwanda is likely best known for the 1994 genocide that left as many as 800,000 Tutsis and Hutus dead. The country has made great strides emerging from the genocide and its later involvement in civil wars in the neighboring DRC, though economic development still lags due to continuing problems with rebels in the country and lack of sufficiently developed infrastructure. The country has a population of more than 8.5 million people, ethnically divided for the most part between the majority Hutu and the minority Tutsi. (U.S. citizens who experience problems in Rwanda should contact the U.S. Embassy in Kigali at The regional security officer is Greg Anderson.) City The city of Kigali, founded in 1906, serves as the center of Rwandan government and commerce. Although the majority of the city s 600,000 people live on less than $1 per day, Kigali is thought to be fairly secure and safe for Western travelers. Most Western visitors to the city are transiting through Kigali in order to visit National Volcano Park and to participate in gorilla safaris. Terrorism In the years following the 1994 genocide and the Rwandan government s participation in the DRC civil war, there have been several attacks against both military and civilian targets inside Rwandan territory. However, these attacks have been the work of regional insurgent forces or DRC troops rather than transnational terrorist organizations. There is no evidence to suggest that terrorist organizations are planning operations inside Rwanda, or establishing networks of logistical or financial support within Rwandan territory. The threat of terrorism in Kigali is low. 1 Crime Crime in Rwanda, compared to other African countries, is relatively uncommon, and crime against foreigners is extremely rare. The U.S. Embassy in Kigali says the most commonly reported crime against foreigners in the second half of 2005 was petty theft, most often in the form of pickpocketing. The second most common crime reported to the U.S. Embassy was the theft of side-view mirrors on cars Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 2

3 Petty theft is somewhat common in Kigali, with pickpocketing the preferred method in the densely populated areas of the city and the snatching of unattended bags the more common method in the less dense areas. Since 2003, there has been a slight increase in the number of thefts from vehicles and hotel rooms, though the trend is not considered to be a serious problem. The threat of crime in Kigali is low. 2 War and Insurgency Following the genocide and unrest of the mid-1990s, many of Rwanda's Hutu rebels escaped into the DRC or Uganda. While security forces from all three countries have made serious attempts to disarm, demobilize and contain these rebels, they have been largely unsuccessful, and hundreds of rebels continue to roam around the border areas. As they try to hunt them down, Rwandan military forces often engage in small-scale engagements with rebels on Rwandan territory, though this action occurs most commonly in the western part of Gisenyi province and is very rare in Kigali. Larger-scale conflict in Rwandan territory between Burundian and Rwandan military forces and Hutu rebels -- mostly from the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, who have sought refuge in the DRC -- has become much less frequent in recent years. This has prompted many Western governments to say the risk has diminished enough to allow Western visitors to travel in some areas of the country, though travel in the border regions is still unadvisable. The last serious conflict came in November 2004, when Rwandan President Paul Kagame threatened to send troops into the DRC to disarm the rebels if DRC 2006 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 3

4 Interim President Joseph Kabila and the United Nations did not fulfill their obligations to do so. The DRC responded by sending 10,000 troops into the area, ostensibly to contain Rwandan soldiers who had crossed the border and to fight the rebels themselves, increasing the chances of miscalculation and confrontation for both militaries. In the run-up to April presidential and parliamentary elections in the DRC, Kinshasa will attempt to exert its control over the nearly lawless portions of the eastern DRC by attempting to quell the rebel insurgencies in the area. As they try to suppress the rebels (and, unofficially, to send them back into Rwandan territory), it is likely many rebels will find themselves back in Rwanda, engaging in firefights with Rwandan troops. If such conflict were to break out, the brunt of the impact would be felt outside of Kigali, though the possibility of fighting near Kigali cannot be ruled out. During any such conflict, it is unlikely that foreigners would be directly targeted for violence, though it is entirely possible that foreigners could be caught in the crossfire. It is strongly recommended that travel to the border areas with the DRC and Burundi be avoided. The threat of war and insurgency in Kigali is high. 3 Political Instability President Kagame, a former rebel general, is the first Tutsi head of state in Rwanda s history. Kagame was sworn in as president in April 2000, following the resignation of President Pasteur Bizimungu due to disagreements with other members of the ruling Hutu- Tutsi coalition that was established following the war. After emerging from nearly a decade of genocide and civil strife, Rwanda was able to hold successful legislative and presidential elections in August Kagame ran for president as part of the Rwandan Patriotic Front and was elected, winning 95 percent of the vote. Following the election, the government eased restrictions on the participation of opposition political parties in the government, allowing Hutus and Tutsis to serve together. Kigali s official stance is that the government is currently run by a national unity administration composed of seven political parties, including members of both Tutsi and Hutu ethnic groups. Some opposition groups are allowed to operate in Rwanda, though the most powerful opposition group -- the Republican Democratic Movement -- is officially banned. Kagame has stifled most opposition through various forms of media censorship, arrest and general corrupt behavior. Many Western groups have criticized the Rwandan system, saying there is a lack of political freedom in the country that could lead to further violence. While a coup attempt in Rwanda is certainly a possibility, given the general political repression within the country, there is no indication at this time that a coup is imminent or being planned. The threat of political instability in Kigali is low. 4 Miscellaneous Threats One of the most serious problems travelers will face in Kigali is the poorly maintained transportation infrastructure. The majority of the country s road system was damaged or destroyed during the war, though several countries have contributed to a rebuilding effort 2006 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 4

5 and much progress has been made. Currently there is no functional rail system at all. Despite the rebuilding effort, road conditions in Kigali remain poor. Most roads within the city are not well-maintained, leading to serious hazards for motorists. Likewise, most vehicles in the city are poorly maintained, leading to frequent breakdowns. Public compliance with road signs, traffic lights and speed constraints is lax at best, as is enforcement of the traffic laws. Most roads are not lit, and those that are lit are not adequately illuminated for safe travel. Travelers should be aware that police roadblocks are set up frequently both inside the city and in more rural areas. At the roadblocks, police are authorized to search vehicles and all contents, including luggage. At such stops, travelers should be prepared to show their passports as proof of foreign citizenship. While many Rwandan citizens complain of police thievery at such checkpoints, foreign citizens are almost always left alone (out of fear of foreign government reprisals). Travelers in Kigali should avoid public transportation if at all possible due to poorly maintained vehicles that are often overloaded beyond a safe capacity. Additionally, masstransit drivers are often reckless and are not trained to operate large vehicles. Taxis are available in Kigali, with government-regulated taxis having an orange stripe along the base of the vehicle. Most taxis have no meters. Foreign visitors are advised to hire a car service or a specific taxi for the duration of their stay in Kigali to ensure a safer trip. Hotels housing foreigners have a preferred service or individual they are willing to recommend. Travelers should also bring a supply of cash into the country, preferably U.S. dollars. Traveler s checks are almost never accepted in Kigali, even by banks, and credit and debit cards are accepted infrequently; the majority of merchants -- even Western hotels -- will accept only cash. The water supply for Kigali in February 2006 is expected to be almost 44 percent less than normal due to inadequate rainfall in 2005 (periodic drought is a problem in Rwanda). As a result, water conservation measures are likely to be put into effect throughout the city, though they are not likely to seriously impact travelers. The dry season in Rwanda usually lasts through mid-march. All travelers to Rwanda are required to provide proof of yellow fever vaccination, regardless of their country of origin or previous travels. All areas of Rwanda, Kigali included, are particularly susceptible to malaria at all times of the year. Malaria in Rwanda typically is P. falciparum and in some cases has shown resistance to chloroquine and sulfadoxine pyrimethamine. Travelers should attempt to avoid the Masaka suburb of Kigali if possible, due to a January 2005 cholera outbreak that left at least 17 people dead and more than 150 others hospitalized. The miscellaneous threat level in Kigali is medium Terrorism threat levels. Low: No known credible threat. Medium: Potential but unsubstantiated threats by capable indigenous or transnational actors. High: Demonstrable history and continued potential for militant attacks against generalized targets. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are not specifically targeted. Critical: Demonstrable history and continued likelihood of militant attacks. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are specifically targeted Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 5

6 2. Crime threat levels. Low: Relatively low crime rate, mainly property or petty crime. Medium: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, low potential for violence. High: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, probability of violence and moderate risk of physical crime. Critical: Extensive criminal activity targeting foreigners with a high possibility of physical crime, including violence and kidnapping; heavily armed criminal elements abundant. 3. War and Insurgency threat levels. Low: No or relatively low threat of violent insurgency. Medium: Nearby insurgency with the potential of affecting city, region, country or transportation network. High: Insurgency within the city, region or country but with little direct effect on foreigners. Critical: Insurgency within the city, region or country directly threatening foreigners. 4. Political Instability threat levels. Low: No or minimal visible activity directed against the government. Medium: Sporadic street demonstrations, largely peaceful. High: Routine largescale demonstrations, often affecting traffic and having the potential for violence. Critical: Endemic strikes, protests and street demonstrations almost always affecting traffic with a high probability of associated violence. 5. Miscellaneous threat levels. Low: Little or no known threats posed by disease, weather, natural disasters, transportation hazards or other dangers. Medium: Moderate level of risk posed by some or all of these threats. High: Considerable danger posed by some or all of these threats. Critical: Extremely high level of danger posed by some or all of these threats Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 6