F A S T Update. Ethiopia. Quarterly Risk Assessment February 2004 to April Early warning unit

Transcription

1 Update Early warning unit Ethiopia Quarterly Risk ssessment ebruary 2004 to pril 2004 swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

2 Update Ethiopia ebruary 2004 pril 2004 Page 2 Contents Country tability and Relative orceful ctions 3 verage Goldstein International Conflict and Cooperation 4 Relative Government and Civil Direct ctions 5 Conflictual, Escalatory and Hostile ctions 6 ppendix: Description of indicators used 7 he Early Warning ystem 8 Update ubscription: Contact : Phone: ax: mailto:@swisspeace.ch Country Expert: Dr. June Rock swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

3 Update Ethiopia ebruary 2004 pril 2004 Page 3 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions Country tability Relative orceful ctions /02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 9/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 1/04 2/04 3/04 4/04 verage number of reported events per month: 143 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: Ethiopia s Country tability index remained at a high level during the last quarter while there was a significant increase in the proportion of orceful ctions, which rose sharply in March, before falling slightly in pril. his rise in the level of orceful ctions reflects a heightening of civil contentiousness and government repression since January. Civil contentiousness has manifested itself in continued inter-ethnic clashes in Gambela region; in increasing rebel activity by the Oromo Liberation ront in southern and western Oromia; and in widespread urban demonstrations (including the towns of Jimma, Waliso, Bishoftu (Debre Zeit), Ziway, Dembi Dollo, and the city of Harar) in Oromia region by students protesting the transfer of the Oromia Region dministration from the national capital of ddis baba to the newly designated Oromia regional capital in dama (also known as Nazareth). urther manifestations of civil dissent have included demonstrations in March by resettlers in western Wellega protesting the government s failure to provide the promised public services, in particular food and drugs. Compounding these actions has been the continued widespread opposition to the Meles regime s handling of the Eritrea border issue. he government has continued its efforts to tighten its control at the center through a range of more or less repressive measures including the continued purging of the Ethiopian People s Revolutionary Democratic ront (EPRD) constituent parties of dissenting elements. hese moves have led to further defections, including 8 army officers who defected to Eritrea. here has also been a resort to the use of armed force, including in some incidents the use of live ammunition, by security forces to disperse student demonstrators in Oromia region. hese actions, not surprisingly, have provoked widespread opposition and have led to a call from Oromo elders for the dissolution of the regional administration and the establishment of a provisional government. lthough relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea remain tense, in the absence of war being ignited by Eritrea the current stalemate on the Eritrea border issue looks likely to continue as long as the present regime remains in power. here is no reason to suppose that the levels of civil contention and state repression will fall significantly in the foreseeable future. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

4 Update Ethiopia ebruary 2004 pril 2004 Page 4 verage Goldstein International Conflict and Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation /02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 9/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 1/04 2/04 3/04 4/04 verage number of reported events per month: 143 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: s the above graph shows, Ethiopia s external relations have been neither strongly cooperative nor strongly conflictive, though the cooperation index marginally outweighs the conflict index throughout this and the previous quarter. his reflects a stalemate situation in which international relations have continued to be largely driven by Ethiopia s continued rejection of the Border Commission s decision, while maintaining that it does not intend to return to war with Eritrea. External cooperation has included an agreement in March with udan to cooperate in the areas of trade, agriculture and health for the benefit of the peoples living in the Ethiopia-udan border areas. he newly established Ethiopian Border Commission also held its first meeting with its Eritrean counterpart in March to discuss ways of preventing border incidents from flaring up into major clashes. Despite continued threats of aid withdrawal by several, although not all, of its major donors, Ethiopia has continued to receive development and humanitarian assistance, as well as military assistance and has now qualified for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief, having reached completion point in pril. Conflictive activity relates mainly to the government s continued inability to overcome the mainly PL intransigence over accepting the Border Commission s decision on Badme, and by the extension that the people living there say they will not move. Despite diplomatic exhortations and donor pressures, acceptance of the Border Commission s ruling does not seem to be imminent. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

5 Update Ethiopia ebruary 2004 pril 2004 Page 5 Relative Government and Civil Direct ctions Relative Government Direct ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions /02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 9/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 1/04 2/04 3/04 4/04 verage number of reported events per month: 143 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he above graph shows that during the reporting period the proportion of Government Direct ctions rose. his suggests that government actions have been more conflictual than at any time in the previous year. Government Direct ctions have included the arrests of several Oromia government officials, 60 Gambela government employees, including the ecretary General of Gambela tate Council, 21 suspected OL members in Kaliti and 5 OL members in Nazareth, and several members of the Oromo NGO, the infine Oromo elf Help Idr. In clashes between student protestors and security forces in Oromia region in March and pril several students were killed, many were severely beaten and thousands, including teachers and other civil servants, were arrested and/or detained. While some detainees have since been released with warnings, hundreds of others are reportedly still in detention without charge or trial. Other reported Government Direct ctions included the mass sackings of government employees in the outhern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (NNPR) for alleged incompetence, and the expulsion of some 15,000 students of Nazareth echnical College protesting the government s policy on cost-sharing for higher education. In the on-going trials of the Derg regime ten senior government officials were sentenced to death by the ederal High Court. Protests and threats against the government by factions, particularly the PL, over any accommodation with Eritrea over the Badme and the border zones have continued. One such example is the warning in ebruary by the Chief dministrator of igray Region, segay Berhe, that there would be no peace in the region unless Badme is declared part of Ethiopia. In the absence either of broad domestic support for accommodation with the Border Commission s decision or an alternative peace proposal the government seems likely to seek to maintain the status quo for as long as possible. While Government Direct ctions against civil and political opposition can be expected to continue, whether or not they will remain at their present levels, and for how long, remains to be seen. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

6 Update Ethiopia ebruary 2004 pril 2004 Page 6 Conflictual, Excalatory and Hostile ctions Conflictual Escalatory Hostile /02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 8/03 9/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 1/04 2/04 3/04 4/04 verage number of reported events per month: 143 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he above graph shows that during the monitoring period out of all Conflictual ctions most have remained Escalatory in nature. However, the proportion of Conflictual ctions that were Hostile in nature, including the conflictive categories demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize, and force, rose sharply, signaling a reversal in the trend observed during he sharp increase in the Hostile ctions index reflects a large number of incidents of three kinds: inter-ethnic clashes, rebel activities against government forces, and the widespread use of force by government security forces against student demonstrators, particularly in Oromia region. In the highly troubled Gambela region a continuation of fighting between nuak and highland groups claimed the lives of up to 80 highlanders, including 6 children, in the environs of bobo town in ebruary. In March 6 died during clashes in Dima town between nuak and immigrant groups from NNPR, and several thousand people, most nuak, reportedly fled to udan in fear of revenge attacks. ighting between government security forces and nuak groups in March and pril led to the death of 24 and the wounding of 20 EPRD cadres. In omali region 19 people were killed and 21 wounded during clashes between omali and Oromo groups in March. In a continuation of OL-government fighting in southern and western Oromia the OL claims to have killed 22 government soldiers in ebruary, and 40 in March, and to have wounded a further eight. Eighteen died, including 11 civilians, during further OL attacks in pril. In omali region, fighting between l Itihad and EPRD forces led to the death of 2 government soldiers and 6 detentions in ebruary; and 6 government soldiers were killed and 8 wounded during fighting between the Ogaden National Liberation ront (ONL) and EPRD forces in March. In far zone, an ambush of military vehicles in March by the far Revolutionary Democratic Unity ront (RDU) led to the death of 19, and the wounding of 21 government soldiers. tate-society relations in Oromia are unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future; while inter-ethnic violence and rebel action can be expected to continue. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

7 Update ppendix : Description of indicators used Page 7 Variable Name ll Events ll ctions Relative ctions Relative Direct ctions Relative orceful ctions Relative Civil ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions Relative Government Direct ctions Conflict Carrying Capacity Country tability Conflictual Escalatory Hostile Goldstein Goldstein verage Goldstein verage International Conflict Goldstein verage International Cooperation Description / Definition IDE categories: a count of all coded events with WEI cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all WEI cue categories) plus an additional 11 IDE event cue categories (Event type: other ). WEI categories: a count of all coded events with cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all WEI cue categories). Proportion of ll ctions to ll Events. Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions (WEI-Categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Proportion of all civil actions to all civil events (with non-governmental, or civil sector actors). Proportion of Civil Direct ctions compared to ll Civil ctions. Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Proportion of Government Direct ctions compared to ll Government ctions. Government Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. he Conflict Carrying Capacity (or CCC) is a composed index that depicts the overall stability of the country or region of interest. he CCC is operationalized in terms of the multiplicative interaction among three Proportional measures: (1) civil contentiousness or the Proportion of civil actions that are reported as contentious or "direct" and thus challenge (at least implicitly) the state's monopoly on conflict regulation; (2) state repression or the Proportion of state actions that are reported as extra-institutional or "direct" both in response to direct challenges from the civil sector and those initiated by the state to repress and control opposition; and (3) violent contention or the Proportion of actions entailing physical damage to persons or property. the index is scaled between 0 and 1, where 1 means high and 0 low stability. he country stability index is another version of the CCC measure with minor changes in order to improve the responsiveness of the index to events that influence the stability of a country. Proportion of all actions belonging to all conflictive categories reject, accuse, protest, deny, demand, warn, threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize, and force to all actions (all Events belonging to the 22 WEI cue categories). Proportion of all actions belonging to the conflictive categories reject, accuse, protest, deny, demand, warn, and threaten to all actions (all Events belonging to the 22 WEI cue categories). Proportion of all actions belonging to the highly conflictive categories demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize, and force to all actions (all Events belonging to the 22 WEI cue categories). he Goldstein verage indicator is a cumulative average of all events that are classified with a positive or negative value by Goldstein's conflict/cooperation scale. he indicator displays the mean of the conflict/cooperation event values, excluding all zero value events. he Goldstein verage International Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative (Goldstein) values of all conflictive interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative Goldstein values divided by the total number of conflictive international events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he Goldstein verage International Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive (Goldstein) values of all cooperative interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive Goldstein values divided by the total number of cooperative international events). swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

8 Update he Early Warning ystem Page 8 Who are we? (German acronym for Early nalysis of ensions and act-finding ) is the early warning project of swisspeace, based in Berne, witzerland. In 1998 the wiss gency for Development and Cooperation (DC) assigned swisspeace to set up a political early warning system for early identification of impending armed conflict and political crisis situations. What do we want? aims to enhance political decision makers ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner, so that coherent political strategies can be formulated either to prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or to identify opportunities for peacebuilding. How do we work? uses both quantitative and qualitative methods for its analysis. he centerpiece in the quantitative analysis is based on event data analysis and the respective tools developed in the framework of the Program on Nonviolent anctions and Cultural urvival (PONC) at Harvard University. he logic of event data analysis is fairly simple: all events considered relevant to conflict escalation and de-escalation are assigned a certain numeric value according to a distinct conflict scale. hese values can then be added up for specific time intervals and graphically displayed in a curve over time. he quality and quantity of data input is crucial for the success of such a method. In order to gather the quality and quantity of data required to suit early warning purposes, sets up its own local information networks (LINs) and thus overcomes shortcomings of existing information sources (e.g., international news wires). unique set of data is collected for each country completely independently from Western news-media coverage. or qualitative data analysis, contracts internationally renowned country experts. What are our products? products are risk assessments tailored to individual customers' needs. he standard product ( Update ) consists of three to five charts depicting the latest conflict related trends and a concise expert interpretation. s the time-series of collected data grow, analysts will apply statistical methods to go beyond retrospective description and forecast future developments. Updates are available in either hard copy or electronic form, covering time intervals as chosen by the customer. Which countries do we monitor? frica: ngola, Burundi, DRC/Kivu region, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, omalia sia: Europe: fghanistan, India/Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus region, Pakistan, ajikistan, Uzbekistan lbania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, erbia and Montenegro Middle East: Palestine swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation