INTERNATIONAL ACTIVISM. Based on Part V Why The Dramatic Decline In Armed Conflict? in Human Security Report, 2005, p

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL ACTIVISM Based on Part V Why The Dramatic Decline In Armed Conflict? in Human Security Report, 2005, p

2 Since the end of the colonial era there have been fewer and fewer international wars, while the last 15 years have seen a dramatic decline in civil wars WHY?

3 For every thousand pages on the causes of war, there is less than one page directly on the causes of peace. Geoffrey Blainey in The Causes of War, 3 rd ed. (New York: Free Press, 1988)

4 Overview 1. Introduction 2. The decline of international war 3. The rise and decline of civil war 4. Conclusion

5 1. Introduction

6 Post-WWII era An extraordinary increase in the number of wars most of them civil wars, followed by A steep decline after the end of the Cold War

7 Two key questions How do we explain the decline in the use of force in relations between states since the end of the colonial era? What brought about the remarkable post-cold War decline in wars within states?

8 Three remarkable changes In international politics having a major positive impact on global security I. Virtual cessation of wars of liberation from colonial rule by the early 1980s; Between 1816 and 2002, 81 wars of colonial conquest and subsequent struggles of independence II. The end of the Cold War ; Approximately 1/3 rd of all wars in post WWII driven wholly or in party by geopolitics; the end of political confrontation stopped the support of proxy wars in developing countries III. An explosion of international activism since the end of the Cold War; Little-analyzed but critically important development; the most compelling explanation for steep decline since 1992

9 2. The decline of international war

10 Historical Trends No obvious trends in the number of international wars till the end of the 1970s But following the end of colonialism and the Cold War, dramatic decline From 1950 to 1980: international wars accounted for 1/5 th to 3/4 th of all wars; the anti-colonial struggles and the conflicts related to the Cold War came to an end For the rest of the 1990s and the early years of the 21 st century: almost no international wars, exception in wars Kosovo, India-Pakistan and Eritrea and Ethiopia s Between 1816 and 2002: 199 international wars (including wars of colonial conquest and liberation) and 251 civil wars one international war on average for every 1.3 civil wars From 1980 to the early 1990s: number of international wars declined

11 Why the decline in the number of international wars? Associated with a number of long-term global trends a) A dramatic increase in the number of democracies: 20 democracies in 1946, 88 in 2005, democratic states almost never fight each other b) An increase in economic interdependence: increased the costs of cross-border aggression while significantly reducing the benefits c) A decline in the economic utility of war: cheaper to buy resources from overseas rather than to use force d) A growth in international institutions: increased involvement of governments in international institutions reduce the incidence of conflict; build global norms encouraging the peaceful solution of conflicts; help promote democratization and interdependence

12 Liberal Peace Thesis Reinforced by these interrelated and mutually trends A transnational security system credited with creating an unprecedented 60 years of peace within Western Europe, indeed between all liberal democracies Challenged by traditional strategic analysts who believed security is achieved through credible deterrence, effective war-fighting capabilities and for smaller powers membership of alliances Peace between the major powers since WWII a function of both the growth of international institutions and processes stressed by liberal peace theorists and the traditional peace through strength deterrence policies

13 The power of ideas: A war-averse world

14 Normative shift against the use of violence Gradual general shifts in attitudes constraining violent behaviours Creation of laws and institutions, monitoring and enforcement mechanisms Changing public attitudes towards war Change in attitudes to colonialism which is universally abhorred Rise of war-averse sentiments in the industrialized countries

15 3. The rise and decline of civil (intrastate) war

16 Civil (intrastate) Wars Rare in the immediate aftermath of WWII Increased in number at an unprecedented rate over the next 4 decades Increase followed by a rapid decline The Cold War and its ending a critical determinant of the changes

17 Historical Trends The most dramatic changes in the incidence of warfare in the past two centuries took place in the last 60 years and relate to changes in civil war Number of civil wars increased from 2 in 1946 to 25 in 1991 Prior to WWII maximum number of civil wars in any one year never exceeded 10 Escalation in the number of civil wars from 1946 to 1991, the largest in the entire 1812 to 2002 period; related to the rise on Cold War-related conflicts and struggle for control in the newly independent states Decline that began after 1992 steeper than the considerable increase from 1946 to 1992 From 1992 to 2002, the number of civil wars declined by 80%

18 Four possible explanations 1. The end of Colonialism 4. Ethnic discrimination and conflicts 2. Democratisation 3. State capacity

19 1. The end of colonialism Contributed to the increase rather than decline in civil wars Struggles against colonialism replaced by control of post-colonial states

20 2. Democratisation Between 1990 and 2003 number of democracies increased by nearly half Security benefits from this change offset by the increase in the number of anocracies regimes that are neither democratic nor autocratic, associated with a higher risk of civil war

21 3. State capacity Poverty associated with weak state state capacity The greater the poverty and the lower the state capacity, the higher the risk of war Growth in state income and capacity is associated with a reduced risk of armed conflict in the long term, but cannot explain the major decline in civil wars since the early 1900s

22 4. Ethnic discrimination and conflicts High levels of political discrimination a key cause of violent ethnic conflict and there has been a steady decline in political discrimination by governments all around the world since the 1950s; In % governments positively discriminated against ethnic groups, by 2003 declined to 25%; Long-term rise in government sponsored positive discrimination/affirmative action programmes; Security-enhancing effect of the steady reduction in political and economic discrimination not strong enough to offset the rapid increase in civil wars from 1950s to the early 1990s; No evidence to suggest that after the end of the Cold War the reduction in discrimination accounted for the decline in conflicts

23 The end of the Cold War

24 Decline in civil conflicts is due to the end of the Cold War 1. Removed a major driver of ideological hostility from the international system - affected civil wars as well as international wars 2. The two superpowers stopped supporting their clients in proxy wars 3. Liberated the UN allowing it to play a effective global security role

25 The upsurge of international activism

26 United Nations Since the end of the 1980s spearheaded a remarkable upsurge in confliction management, conflict prevention and post-conflict peacebuilding activities The World Bank, donor states, a number of regional security organizations and NGOs complemented UN activities and also played independent prevention and peacebuilding roles

27 Policies initiatives adopted in the last 15 years

28 a. Dramatic increase in preventive and peacemaking activities UN preventive diplomacy missions (those that seek to prevent wars from breaking out in the first place) increased from 1 in 1990 to 6 in 2002; UN peacemaking activities (those that seek to stop ongoing conflicts) increased nearly 4 times from 4 in 1990 to 15 in 2002; Approximately half of all peace settlements negotiated between 1946 and 2003 signed since the end of the Cold War; Average number of conflicts terminated per year in the 1990s more than twice the average of all previous decades from 1946 onwards

29 b. Increase in international support for UN peace-making Mechanisms created by governments to support UN peacemaking activities and peace operations in countries in or emerging from conflicts increased from 4 in 1990 to more than 28 in 2003

30 c. Increase in post-conflict peace operations Major increases in complex UN peace operations from 7 in 1988 to 16 in 200; Engagements also by regional organizations; peace operations in the post-cold War era large and numerous but also more ambitious; 2/3rd of UN nation-building missions were successful compared to 50% success rate for comparable US missions

31 d. Greater willing to use force Security Council increasingly willing to authorize the use of force to deter spoilers from undermining peace agreements; UN peace operations routinely mandated to use force to protect the peace, not just their own personnel

32 e. Increased resort to economic coercion Security Council increasingly willing to impose economic sanctions; Number of UN sanctions increased more than 5 times between 1990 and 2000

33 f. Assault on the culture of impunity Number of governments persecuting agents of former regimes for grave human rights abuses increased from 1 in 1990 to 11 in 2004; Establishment of the International Criminal Court and various UN and ad hoc tribunals

34 g. Greater emphasis on reconciliation Reconciliation a major aim of most peacebuilding programmes; Reconciliation rather than revenge reduces the risk of renewed violence Number of truth and reconciliation commissions in operation in any one year increased from 1 in 1989 to 7 in 2003;

35 h. Addressing the root cause of conflict The UN, the World Bank, donor countries and other international agencies design development policies that address the root causes of political violence

36 Impact on global security Individually none of the policies has had a great impact on global security Most have achieved only modest success But taken together their impact have been highly significant

37 International activism Provides the single best explanation for the extraordinary decline in civil wars since the 1990s

38 4. Conclusion

39 Internal wars are extremely rare today and will remain so for the foreseeable future The sharp decline in international wars since the end of the 1970s can be explained by the demise of colonialism and the end of the Cold War The risk of civil conflict is reduced by equitable economic growth, good governance and inclusive development development is a necessary condition for security just as security is a necessary condition for development

40 Activism by the international community directed towards conflict prevention, peacemaking and peacebuilding is the main driver of change for the 80% decline in the most deadly conflicts since the early 1990s Most surprising and the least examined Argument persuasive but evidence mostly circumstantial Most research required to determine which specific activities and mechanisms have been most effective for global security and under what conditions