F A S T Update. Serbia and Montenegro. Quarterly Risk Assessment May to July Early warning unit

Transcription

1 Update Early warning unit erbia and Montenegro Quarterly Risk ssessment May to July 2003 swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

2 Update erbia and Montenegro May July 2003 Page 2 Contents Country tability and Relative orceful ctions: erbia 3 Relative Civil and Direct ctions: erbia 4 verage International Conflict and Cooperation: erbia 5 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions: Montenegro 6 verage International Conflict and Cooperation: Montenegro 7 ppendix: Description of indicators used 8 he Early Warning ystem 10 Contact : Phone: ax: ubscription: swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

3 Update erbia May July 2003 Page 3 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions Country tability Relative orceful ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 121 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he graph reflects an increase in Relative orceful ctions and an accompanying slight decrease in Country tability in the period from May to July his increase does not refer to organized crime, which shook the country in March 2003 when Prime Minister Djindjic was assassinated. In fact, the rise of Relative orceful ctions in June and especially in July can be accounted for by acts such as beatings and bombings. Most of these acts were committed by unidentified persons and for unknown reasons, which makes it difficult to forecast their rate in the future. wice, however, the use of force was a result of local officials s arrogance. his was the case with the mayor of Cacak, Velimir Ilic, who attacked a journalist during an interview for asking him unpleasant questions, and a local policeman who beat up a citizen in the city of Novi Pazar. Organized crime is on the defensive, at least for the moment. he erbian police managed to dismember the Zemun Gang that allegedly organized the murder of Prime Minister Djindjic, thus bringing the rate of organized crime to the lowest level in the past years. It is only Milorad Lukovic Legija, the Gang s kingpin, who is still at large. However, his outstanding detention presents no threat to the country s stability. he police s fight against organized crime results in a slow divorce between financial-economic and mafia groups. he economic and financial tycoons, who survived the fall of Milosevic, reorganized themselves, legalized their activities, and established ties with the anti-reformists in the government by excluding the heavy criminals from the framework. he country s stability went down in June and July primarily due to an augmented appearance of political affairs that are the result of the conflicts between the government and the opposition. In July, the erbian parliament rushed to elect new governor of the national bank, Mrs. Kori Udovicki, thus forcing governor Dinkic to leave the office. o even the score, Dinkic revealed documents accusing two government officials of being involved in money laundering. hese domestic political affairs will not seriously destabilize the country but one can expect the persistence of harsh political clashes between the ruling coalition, which does not want to test its popularity before December 2004, and the opposition, which will attempt to bring down the government in order to provoke early parliamentary elections. he future level of Relative orceful ctions, which may remain between the May and July level, will not be a consequence of organized crime. he reasons could again be the violence on the part of irresponsible state and local officials, but also due to ethnic tensions between lbanians and erbs in outh erbia, which, at the moment, lay dormant. Dr. Dusan Pavlovic swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

4 Update erbia May July 2003 Page 4 Relative Civil and Direct ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions Relative Direct ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 121 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: s predicted in the previous update, after the lifting of the state of emergency on pril 22, the level of Relative Civil Direct ctions increased on the whole. It rose in June, dropped in July but remained above the pril and May level. On the other hand, the Direct ctions fell in May, slightly increased in June, and continued to rise in July. During the state of emergency, the government suppressed all sorts of public protest and voicing of critical thinking about its activities. hortly after the state of emergency was lifted, the civil sector activities against the government experienced a strong boost. he government faces enormous problems regarding the public sector where it intends to restructure big public enterprises. hese plans caused social unrest. In June, when Relative Civil ctions were running high, the government attempted to split up the Elektrodistribucija rbije a state company that produces procures, and delivers electricity into several parts in order to push privatization. he 50,000 employees of this enterprise opposed this restructuring plan, and threatened to bring the country to a halt by terminating the delivery of electricity to the citizens. he conflict ended by an agreement to separate one coal mine from the Elektrodistribucija rbije. he conflict between the parliament and the media over the three disputed members of the Broadcasting council, who were elected illegally by the parliament in pril, continued. Various local and international media associations insisted on the removal of the three members but despite all protests the parliament reconfirmed its previous decision in mid-july. Besides, Vladimir Popovic, chief of the government s information bureau, started filing lawsuits against all weeklies and dailies that ever wrote a critical word on him and his work, which was widely seen as an attempt to continue with the policy of disciplining the media pursued during the state of emergency. his conflict induced even the U ambassador to Belgrade to weigh in and protect the attacked media. fter these developments Vladimir Popovic gave in and stepped down in the beginning of July. he graph shows that the level of Relative Civil Direct ction in June and the Relative Direct ctions in July are the highest within one year time (excluding March when the premier was killed). his suggests that the conflict between the government and the civil sector is one of the most critical in the country. One can expect that the government s clash with the media slows down. his cannot be said about the conflict with trade unions and resented workers, which will surely persist due to the accelerated privatization, the bankruptcy procedures law (which is announced for eptember), and restructuring of large public enterprises, which has just begun. Dr. Dusan Pavlovic swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

5 Update erbia May July 2003 Page 5 verage International Conflict and Cooperation verage International Conflict 8 verage International Cooperation /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 121 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: ince May, the conflict curve is in slight decline, whereas the cooperation curve is rising. his suggests that erbia s international standing improved. In June, the erbian police arrested and handed over to the International Criminal ribunal for former Yugoslavia the retired colonel Veselin ljivancanin, one of the most wanted suspects for war crimes committed in Croatia in he move was hailed by all international actors, notably by he Hague prosecutor Carla del Ponte. he last obstacle to the future cooperation with the ribunal remains general Ratko Mladic, charged with genocide in Bosnia in Premier Zivkovic vowed the police would either arrest him or give proofs that he is not in erbia by the end of On the other hand, the Kosovo issue, while still dominant, receded in the past three months and did not burden the erbian government s relations with the international community. he reason for this could be seen in the leaving of Michael teiner from the position of the UNMIK head. ormer innish premier Hari Holkeri assumed his office in the beginning of ugust. Both lbanian and erbian sides expect improvement of the relations with the United Nations Interim dministration Mission in Kosovo. Despite the fact that the Council of Ministers of erbia & Montenegro on July 1 remained silent on signing the agreement with the U on not extraditing U citizens to the International criminal court in he Hague, the erbian government managed to improve its relations with the U. Premier Zivkovic met with top officials in the U administration on July 26, and stated that the relations between erbia and the U have never been better. t the meeting, in addition to promising to arrest Ratko Mladic, premier Zivkovic vowed to break up all military relations with Republika rpska and to improve the human rights conditions in the erbian prisons. In return, the U administration promised to prolong financial help for erbia for One can be sure that the erbian government will do its best to arrest Ratko Mladic, which will further improve erbia s relations with the U and could even take the issue of the cooperation with the Hague tribunal off the agenda for he Kosovo issue, however, will remain to bedevil the erbian government and its relations with the international community, despite the momentary respite. his in the light of the fact that neither the erbian government, nor the international community, nor the Kosovo lbanians have a strategy for the final solution of the Kosovo status. Dr. Dusan Pavlovic swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

6 Update Montenegro May July 2003 Page 6 Country tability and Relative orceful ctions Country tability Relative orceful ctions /02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 60 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: Montenegro returned to the realm of full stability, where it was from November 2002 until March fter an upsurge in pril, the Relative orceful ction curve dropped in May, and continued to decline in June and July. he fact that the Relative orceful ction curve reached zero in July confirms the claim that violent acts, for the time being, do not occur regularly but rather accidentally in Montenegrin public and political life. s mentioned in the previous update, forceful action is still a consequence of organized crime infighting inside and outside Montenegro. On May 5, Ratko Djoric, a person who was believed to have had close ties with the Montenegrin tobacco mafia, was killed in tockholm. One more significant forceful action was recorded on June 20 when the members of the Center of Cetinje Youth attacked Ranko Krivokapic, head of the ocialdemocratic Party, while he gave a public speech at his party s rally. uch events are likely to continue in the future, but they probably will not have an influence on the Relative orceful ction curve. Occasional use of force, such as the attack on Ranko Krivokapic, will remain a peculiarity of Montenegrin political life but will not constitute a threat to the country`s stability. On the other hand, violent actions, which are the result of organized crime, have the potential to destabilize the country some time in the future. But since it is not clear at the moment when the government will decide to tackle this enormous problem of organized crime (if at all), it is difficult to make precise predictions as to when this could happen. Dr. Dusan Pavlovic swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

7 Update Montenegro May July 2003 Page 7 verage International Conflict and Cooperation verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation -1 7/02 8/02 9/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 1/03 2/03 3/03 4/03 5/03 6/03 7/03 verage number of reported events per month: 60 Indicator description: see appendix Risk ssessment: he graph shows almost a congruent course of the International Conflict and Cooperation curve. Both curves went up in June and then declined in July. he June increase of the international conflict curve is the consequence of the woman trafficking affair and the cigarette smuggling affair. In pril, the general prosecutor Zoran Radonjic dropped the woman trafficking affair case that involved the smuggling of a Moldavian woman. his, at first, brought about sharp criticism from domestic NGOs and the political opposition and also strong condemnations from the international community. In July, the Organization for ecurity and Co-operation in Europe (OCE) pressed the Montenegrin government and the public prosecutor to renew the case. lthough the government stated repeatedly that it pleaded for the fair resolution of the case, it did not show interest in inducing the public prosecutor to take up the case again. he tension temporarily eased when the OCE deployed an expert commission to Podgorica to examine the reasons for dropping the case. In June and July, three Italian local magistrates (from Napoli, Bari and ncona) announced criminal investigations into cigarette smuggling that implicated Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. he Napoli magistrate even filed suit against Djukanovic, charging him of ensuring safe way for tobacco smuggling to Italy, and further into the European Union. he Italian judiciary, however, let Djukanovic off the hook due to his diplomatic immunity. he Montenegrin government again clashed with the Council of Ministers of erbia & Montenegro when it said it would sign a separate agreement with the U government on not extraditing U citizens to the International Criminal ribunal in he Hague. he move was criticized by some erbian politicians, and was finally rejected by the U administration as unnecessary. he conflict between Montenegro and erbia as well as between Montenegro and the EU will surely continue. he reason is the unclear position of the Montenegrin government with respect to the European integration. It seems that, for the time being, the government is split over its international direction as well as over the decision to fight organized crime. his will continue to cause troubles with the international community, especially with the European Union. During the monitored period (July 2002 July 2003) both the international conflict and cooperation curves were moving comparatively stable, it is quite likely that both indicators remain at this level, with the tendency to rise again. Dr. Dusan Pavlovic swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

8 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 8 Variable Name Description / Definition WEI categories: a count of all coded events with cue categories ranging from 1 to 22 (all WEI cue ll ctions categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, Direct ctions demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes orceful ctions non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Relative ctions Proportion of ll ctions to ll Events. Relative Direct ctions Relative orceful ctions Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions (WEI-Categories). Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct actions regardless of origin or target. Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. he indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by any actor. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Civil ector Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only nongovernmental, or civil sector actors. ll Civil ctions Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, Civil Direct demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action ctions limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Civil orceful ctions Relative Civil ctions Relative Civil Direct ctions Relative Civil orceful ctions he Indicator Civil orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by non-governmental, or civil sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Proportion of all civil actions to all civil events (with non-governmental, or civil sector actors). Proportion of Civil Direct ctions compared to ll Civil ctions. Civil Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to non-governmental, or civil sector actors. Proportion of Civil orceful ction events compared to ll Civil Direct ctions. he Indicator Civil orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by non-governmental, or civil sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. ector ll Count of all coded events belonging to the WEI cue categories (1 to 22), that involve only the ctions political sector, or government actors. Direct ctions orceful ctions Relative ctions Relative Direct ctions Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. he Indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by political, or government sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, and military engagement. Proportion of all ctions to all Events (with political, or government sector actors). Proportion of Direct ctions compared to ll ctions. Direct ctions are conflictive events that can be assigned to the following event types: threaten, demonstrate, reduce relationships, expel, seize and force. hese categories encompass direct action limited to the political sector, or government actors. swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

9 Update ppendix: Description of indicators used Page 9 Variable Name Description / Definition Proportion of orceful ction events compared to ll Direct ctions. Relative he Indicator orceful ctions depicts all reported uses of physical force by political, or government sector actors. his includes non-injury destructive acts, non-military injury-destruction, orceful ctions and military engagement. he Conflict Carrying Capacity (or CCC) is a composed index that depicts the overall stability of the country or region of interest. he CCC is operationalized in terms of the multiplicative interaction among three Proportional measures: (1) civil contentiousness or the Proportion of civil actions that Conflict are reported as contentious or "direct" and thus challenge (at least implicitly) the state's monopoly Carrying on conflict regulation; (2) state repression or the Proportion of state actions that are reported as Capacity extra-institutional or "direct" both in response to direct challenges from the civil sector and those initiated by the state to repress and control opposition; and (3) violent contention or the Proportion of actions entailing physical damage to persons or property. the index is scaled between 0 and 1, where 1 means high and 0 low stability. Country tability International Conflict International Cooperation verage verage International Conflict verage International Cooperation he country stability index is another version of the CCC measure with minor changes in order to improve the responsiveness of the index to events that influence the stability of a country. indicators are used to display Proportions of conflict and cooperation events in time. Each event category is assigned a rating (value), ranging from -10 (extreme conflict) to 10 (extreme cooperation). Zero value events are excluded from these calculations. he International Conflict indicator displays the total sum of the negative () values of all conflictive interstate or international events in a specific time period. or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he International Cooperation indicator displays the total sum of the positive () values of all cooperative interstate or international events in a specific time period. he verage indicator is a cumulative average of all events that are classified with a positive or negative value by 's conflict/cooperation scale. he indicator displays the mean of the conflict/cooperation event values, excluding all zero value events. he verage International Conflict indicator displays the cumulative average of the negative () values of all conflictive interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the negative values divided by the total number of conflictive international events). or interpretation purposes we take the absolute values (means positive values). he verage International Cooperation indicator displays the cumulative average of the positive () values of all cooperative interstate or international events in a specific time period (means the sum of the positive values divided by the total number of cooperative international events). swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation

10 Update he Early Warning ystem Page 10 Who are we? (German acronym for Early nalysis of ensions and act-finding ) is the early warning project of swisspeace, based in Berne, witzerland. In 1998 the wiss gency for Development and Cooperation (DC) assigned swisspeace to set up a political early warning system for early identification of impending armed conflict and political crisis situations. What do we want? aims to enhance political decision makers ability to identify critical developments in a timely manner, so that coherent political strategies can be formulated either to prevent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or to identify opportunities for peacebuilding. How do we work? uses both quantitative and qualitative methods for its analysis. he centerpiece in the quantitative analysis is based on event data analysis and the respective tools developed in the framework of the Program on Nonviolent anctions and Cultural urvival (PONC) at Harvard University. he logic of event data analysis is fairly simple: all events considered relevant to conflict escalation and de-escalation are assigned a certain numeric value according to a distinct conflict scale. hese values can then be added up for specific time intervals and graphically displayed in a curve over time. he quality and quantity of data input is crucial for the success of such a method. In order to gather the quality and quantity of data required to suit early warning purposes, sets up its own local information networks (LINs) and thus overcomes shortcomings of existing information sources (e.g., international news wires). unique set of data is collected for each country completely independently from Western news-media coverage. or qualitative data analysis, contracts internationally renowned country experts. What are our products? products are risk assessments tailored to individual customers' needs. he standard product ( Update ) consists of three to five charts depicting the latest conflict related trends and a concise expert interpretation. s the time-series of collected data grow, analysts will apply statistical methods to go beyond retrospective description and forecast future developments. Updates are available in either hard copy or electronic form, covering time intervals as chosen by the customer. Which countries do we monitor? frica: sia: Europe: ngola, Burundi, DRC/Kivu region, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, omalia fghanistan, India/Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus region, Pakistan, ajikistan, Uzbekistan lbania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, erbia and Montenegro Middle East: Palestine swisspeace wiss gency for Development and Cooperation