The Economies in Transition: The Recovery Project LINK, New York 2011 Robert C. Shelburne Economic Commission for Europe

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1 The Economies in Transition: The Recovery Project LINK, New York 2011 Robert C. Shelburne Economic Commission for Europe

2 EiT growth was similar or above developing countries pre-crisis, but significantly below post-crisis. Downside risk: eurozone crisis EiT Advanced Developing and Emerging Real GDP Growth PPP Basis f 2013f

3 Real GDP Growth in Europe, SEE-6 EECCA-11 Russia NMS-12 EU-15 (Old) Real GDP Growth Rate

4 SEE Quarterly GDP Y-O-Y Albania fyr of Macedonia Serbia Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2

5 CIS: Quarterly GDP Y-O-Y Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2

6 Comparison of Severity of Crisis Using Time Annual Average GDP Growth Annual Average Total SEE EECCA Russia EiT (-T) ~3 (2.9) NMS ~3 (3.1) ECA (-T) Years Lost due to Crisis EU (15 Old) Emerging & Developing ~1

7 Level of GDP in 2011 Compared to 2007

8 The Great Recession: Bigger than 1998 currency crisis but insignificant compared to transition crisis Russia- Crises Compared 225 Real GDP Index Years After Shock Transition 1998 Currency Great Recession

9 Real GDP in 2011 Compared to 1989 Uzbekistan Azerbaijan Poland Belarus Albania Slovak Republic Kazakhstan Slovenia Czech Republic Armenia Estonia Hungary Romania Kyrgyz Republic Bulgaria Lithuania Russia The fyr of Macedonia Croatia Latvia Montenegro BiH Serbia Tajikistan Georgia Ukraine Moldova Turkmenistan Turkey Real GDP 2011 vs 1989

10 Convergence in Wider-Europe Total Growth 2000 to SEE CIS ADV NMS 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Per Capita Income PPP 2000

11 EECCA (CIS) & SEE Are Slowly Converging to Eurozone Per Capita Income World Eurozone EECCA/Eurozone EECCA/World SEE/Euro Area 17 SEE/World 1998 Relative GDP Per Capita PPP

12 The EiT Account for 4.6% of World GDP, EiT+NMS+T=8.3% 3.5 Share (%) of World GDP PPP Russia EECCA-11 SEE-6 NMS Turkey

13 Unemployment in the CIS f 2013f 2014f Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Russia Ukraine

14 Unemployment in South-East Europe: Over 10% in All, Largely Structural Unemployment Rate f 2013f 2014f Albania Croatia Montenegro Bosnia and Herzegovina The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Serbia

15 Unemployment in the NMS Monthly Baltics& Slovakia Czech, Romania, Slovenia 2008M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M07 Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Slovakia Slovenia

16 Relationship between Change in GDP and Unemployment in ECE Economies, 2009 vs 2008

17 Inflation in SEE 4 of 6 Fixed to Euro (solid), 2 flexible (mixed) Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Montenegro Serbia TfYR of Macedonia 2007M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M03 Inflation Over Previous Year

18 Inflation in the CIS; back to 5-15% Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Moldova Russia Tajikistan Ukraine Belarus Currency Crisis 2007M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M03

19 Inflation in the ECE: Higher growth is associated with higher inflation SEE NMS Advanced ECE EECCA Inflation Real GDP Growth 2011

20 1.2 Exchange Rates: General Nominal Depreciations vs US$ But Russia has had inflation of over 30% Depreciation / Appreciation M M042008M M M012009M M M102010M M M072010M M M04 Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Moldova, Republic of Montenegro Russian Federation Serbia Tajikistan The fyr of Macedonia Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan

21 Real Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates (BIS) Jan 2008=1 Bulgaria Croatia Latvia Russia United States Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04

22 Current Accounts: Reduced Imbalances in the EiT & NMS Russian Surplus & NMS/SEE Deficits Reduced NMS 10 ECCAA-11 Russia SEE-6 Current Account Per Cent of GDP

23 FDI: Solid Growth Pre-crisis, But Down 50% Post-crisis FDI Inward Stock FDI Inflows Per Cent Increase 2000 to Per Cent Change 2008 to SEE , Turkey Russia , EECCA EiT NMS ECA ,

24 Russian Capital Flight: Net Private Capital Outflows US $ Billions Net Private Capital Flows

25 8_ Russia s International Reserve Assets 10_ _2008 2_2009 4_2009 6_2009 8_ _ _2009 2_2010 4_2010 6_2010 8_ _ _2010 2_2011 4_2011 6_2011 Wealth Fund Reserve Fund CB Assets 8_2008 6_2008 2_2008 4_2008 Billions of US $

26 Trade in the CIS: Solid Growth in 1st Half of 2011 Exports Imports Armenia Belarus Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Moldova Russia Tajikistan Ukraine CIS Azerbaijan Per cent Change Q /Q

27 Geographical Distribution of Trade of ECA Economies Share of Exports Going to Each Sub-Region Based upon 2008 Trade Exports To (Across) \ From (Down) Russia CIS-11 SEE-6 NMS-10 Adv EU ROW Russia CIS SEE NMS

28 Trade Developments WTO Accession (10 EiT not members) Membership for Russia is imminent-the rush before Putin Good progress is being made for BiH EU-Ukraine Association Agreement may be concluded by end of 2011 Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russia customs union moving forth with additional initiatives, ie economic space EU Eastern Partnership (with Bel, Ukr, Mol, Arm, Aze, Geo) going nowhere; objective was to be trade and visa liberalization. Political problems as CIS becomes less democratic. EU Accession: Croatia in 2013, Montenegro & FYRM are candidates, Serbia maybe by year end. All have visa free travel to Schengen area except Kosovo. CEFTA increasing integration & promoting EU accession Dependence on foreign capital should/must decline. Promoting export-led growth requires supply-side policies (R&D, vocational education) and macro policies (raising domestic private savings, reducing public dis-saving, controlling credit growth and avoiding housing booms).

29 Government Fiscal Position: The end of Russian surpluses and larger deficits in SEE Government Surplus/Deficit % of GDP Russia EECCA minus Russia SEE-6 (Ex Turkey)

30 Eurozone Crisis Has Not Infected the EiT While the US and several Eurozone economies have recently had sovereign credit rating downgrades, there have been upgrades in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Serbia. Nevertheless SEE likely to impacted by negative developments in Greece and NMS by financial turmoil in eurozone, as a result growth for 2012 likely to be lower

31 Yield Spreads Have Remained Moderate Despite Eurozone Crisis 2006Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 B ulgaria Hungary Lithuania Poland Croatia Serbia1 Turkey Georgia Russia Ukraine EMBI Yield Spread

32 Debt Service Percentage of Exports of Goods, Services, Income Kosovo Macedonia, fyr Serbia Turkey Armenia Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Moldova Russia Tajikistan Ukraine Bulgaria Lithuania Source:WB BiH Debt Service Percentage of Exports, 2009

33 Remittances: Percentage of GDP in 2006, 2008, 2010 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus BiH Bulgaria Croatia Georgia UNMIK/Kosovo Kyrgyzstan Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Moldova Montenegro Romania Serbia Tajikistan Ukraine Albania Remittances % of GDP

34 e 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Russian Remittances, Total Outflows CIS Outflows Total Inflows CIS Inflows Millions US $

35 Non-Performing Loans: Reasonable Threat and Little Improvement What constitutes excessive NPL? Sweden in 1990s had NPL of 12% which required 5 of 7 banks to be rescued Percentage of NPL 0 Bulgaria Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Romania Albania BiH Croatia Macedonia, fyr Monenegro Serbia Belarus Kazakhstan Moldova Russia Ukraine IMF Data: 2011 latest available

36 Foreign Currency Loans Remain a Vulnerability Percentage of Loans Denominated in Foreign Currency Hungary Poland Bulgaria Romania Albania Croatia Serbia

37 Croatia: Bank Credit to the Private Sector: 3/4 in Foreign Currency

38 Change in Net Borrowing of Household Sector in Hungary

39 Financial Sector Development Financial sector still underdeveloped in central Asia: many have no bank account Related party lending (RPL) has been and remains widespread in the CIS Created problems during crisis as solvency of banking system was uncertain Recent problem in Russia with VTB purchase of Bank of Moscow 41% of all Russian loans in 2010 were RPL Bank lending is rebounding, but credit growth muted. As in the advanced economies, SMEs still not able to get credit

40 IMF Credit, Outstanding and Undrawn for ECA GRA-General Resources Account, PRGT- Poverty Reduction Growth Trust GRA PRGT Total O uts tand ing Av ailable Undrawn Albania Bosnia & Herzegovina U NMIK/Kosovo Serbia 1, , T he fyr of M acedonia Turkey 2, , SEE 4, , Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus 2, , Georgia Kyrgyz Republic Moldova T ajikistan Ukraine 9, , , EE CC A 12, , , Hungary 7, , Latvia Poland , Romania 10, , , NMS 19, , ,796.0 E it Tota l 17, , , E CA Total 36, , ,90 3.0

41 Per capita Income and Government Effectiveness, late 2000s 70,000 60,000 EECCA NMS OTHER SEE Expon. (OTHER) R 2 = GNI per capita (PPP $) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: UNECE MDG 2011 Report Government effectiveness index

42 EiT Longer Run Economic Objectives/Considerations Increase the size of high-technology sectors and innovation Increase foreign investment inflows Frozen conflicts in Caucasus and central Asia limits attractiveness of the regions Need to increase the size of the tradeables sectors Liberalization progress has slowed down Energy exporters need to diversify to Asian markets Demographic problems are especially acute for an emerging market

43 Main Lessons for EiT from the Global Financial Crisis Limit the overall level of exposure to external capital markets, especially portfolio and bank loans Limit the domestic growth of credit to reasonable levels Limit the degree of foreign currency denominated loans Consider the benefits of exchange rate flexibility Minimize government fiscal deficits Diversity production and exports; develop manufacturing and services sectors Develop and improve the governance of domestic financial systems Although those economies with a large export sector were more exposed, limiting trade integration is not a recommendation

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