Through the Financial Crisis
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1 Comments on: How Latvia Came Through the Financial Crisis Mark Griffiths European Department International Monetary Fund
2 Outline 1. Economic performance under the program Program succeeded but at great economic cost 2. Was the fixed exchange rate key? Authors passionate but unlikely to convince the sceptics 3. What s missing from the Book and what s next for Latvia? 2
3 Since mid-2009, CDS speads have fallen year CDS Spreads of Baltics (basis points) 1100 Latvia
4 Overnight interest rates too 35 Overnight Rigibor (Percent) Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 4
5 Current account shifted from unsustainable deficit to surplus Latvia: Current Account Balance (percent of GDP) Source: Haver Analytics -25 5
6 Non-resident deposits returned (capital inflows) Latvia. Resident and Non-Resident Deposits 6,800 6,400 6,000 Resident Deposits Non-Resident Deposits 5,600 5,200 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 3,200 2, :1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 6
7 Resident depositors regained confidence in the Lats Latvia. Share of Lats Deposits in Total Household Deposits :1 2008:1 2009:1 2010:1 2011:1 Source: Haver Analytics 30 7
8 International reserves increased (until recently) (includes international i support package disbursements) Gross International Reserves (Billions of euros) Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 8
9 But GDP fell 25 percent Baltics: Real GDP Developments, 2007q4= Latvia Estonia Lithuania :1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 Source: Haver Analytics 50 9
10 Unemployment increased to 20 percent Latvia: Harmonized Unemployment trate SA, % Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia/Haver Analytics
11 Unemployment has fallen 60,000 from its peak Latvia: Total lharmonized Unemployment SA, Thous.Persons Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia/Haver Analytics
12 But employment is 200,000 down 16 percent decline Latvia: Employment: Average Number of Employed Persons SA, Thous Source: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia/Haver Analytics
13 Outline Economic performance under the program Program succeeded but at great economic cost Was the fixed exchange rate key? Authors are passionate but unlikely to convince the sceptics What s missing from the Book and what s next? 13
14 Latvia has the most unequal income distribution in the EU 40 GINI Coefficient for EU 27 Countries, = max equality 100 = max inequality Slovenia Hungary Slovak Rep. Sweden Czech Rep. Austria Finland Belgium Denmark Netherlands Malta Cyprus Ireland Germany Luxembourg France Estonia Poland Italy Spain UK Greece Bulgaria Romania Portugal Lithuania Latvia 14
15 What s missing i from the book? Financial sector stabilization and reform Improving the quality of fiscal adjustment Role of IMF and EU How did PSI contribute? 15
16 What s next for Latvia? From stabilization to growth? Can Latvia join the euro in 2014? 16
17 Rebound slower than other Baltics Baltics: Recovery since 2010: Real GDP Growth (q/q seas adj) Latvia Estonia Lithuania :1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 2011:1 2011:2 Source: Haver Analytics
18 Exports are growing rapidly, like other Baltics Baltics: Export Performance of Goods and Service (euros), 2007q4= Latvia Estonia Lithuania :1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 Source: Haver Analytics 18
19 But export share remains low Baltics: Exports as share of GDP 100 Latvia 100 Estonia Lithuania Source: Haver Analytics 19
20 Product mix is not very high tech 20
21 Scope for improving educational quality and growth 600 PISA Ranking of 15 Year Old Students (Math, Reading, Science), ** Romania Bulgaria Croatia Greece Lithuania LATVIA Spain Italy Portugal Ireland Luxembourg Hungary UK Czech Rep. Sweden Poland Austria OECD Slovak Rep. France Norway Slovenia Denmark Estonia Germany Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Finland 21
22 Inflation has jumped to 4.8 percent y/y (but supply shocks) - risk of missing Maastricht Latvia: Harmonized CPI: Y/Y%Ch %Change NSA, % Source: Statistical Office of the European Communities /Haver Analytics
23 Latvia has more to do, but let s let s put in perspective: 5-year CDS Spreads of Balkans (Basis points) 450 Latvia Bulgaria Croatia Romania Jul 10 Jul Jan 11 Jan-11 Jul 11 Jul-11
24 CDS lower than Southern Europe: year CDS Spreads of Southern Europe (Basis points) 500 Latvia Spain Cyprus Italy Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 24
25 And well below Euro Area program countries: year CDS Spreads of Euro Area Program Countries (Basis points) 2500 Latvia 2000 Greece Portugal Ireland Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 25
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