After the crisis: what new lessons for euro adoption?

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1 After the crisis: what new lessons for euro adoption? Zsolt Darvas Croatian Parliament 15 November 2017, Zagreb

2 Background and questions Among the first 15 EU member states, Mediterranean countries experienced unsustainable developments in (partly related to their euro membership), and their overall economic record is weak Among the 13 countries that joined the EU in , 7 countries have entered the euro area. These newcomers are generally converging economies potentially subject to boom/bust developments. What was the macroeconomic performance of euro ins and outs among the newer member states? Did the lack of a stand-alone exchange rate of euro-ins made adjustment since more painful? What lesson to draw for further euro enlargement? 2

3 Exchange rate regimes of new EU members Euro members Non-euro members entry date regime before regime Slovenia 7 tightly managed Bulgaria currency board Cyprus tightly managed Croatia tightly managed Malta tightly managed Czech Republic free float Slovakia 9 free float Hungary free float Estonia 2011 currency board Poland free float Latvia 2014 narrow band Romania free float Lithuania 2015 currency board With the exception of Slovakia, all new euro members 3 had rigid exchange rate regimes before joining the

4 Nominal exchange rate against the euro (1995Q1=100) Euro members Outs Croatia Cyprus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Malta Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Diverse movements Note: increase indicates exchange rate appreciation against the euro 4 4

5 Real effective exchange rate, based on consumer prices (1995Q1=100) Euro members Outs Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Cyprus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Malta Diverse movements Croatia Note: increase indicates exchange rate appreciation against 138 trading partners 5 100

6 Convergence between

7 Price level Price level Convergence: GDP per capita (at PPS) and price level (% of 10 core EU countries), 1995 vs Euro members Outs 70 EE- CY- MT- SI- CY EE-1995 LV-1995 LT-1995 SK-1995 LV- MT-1995 SI-1995 SK- LT GDP per capita PL-1995 HR-1995 RO-1995 BG-1995 BG- HU-1995 HR- RO- HU- PL- CZ-1995 Note: the 10 core EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, 7 Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom GDP per capita Clear convergence, most lines are parallel CZ-

8 Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Convergence: GDP per capita (at PPS) and price level (% of 10 core EU countries), annual developments Four NMS euro members Latvia Malta But annual movements not always straight Slovakia Slovenia Note: the 10 core EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom

9 Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Convergence: GDP per capita (at PPS) and price level (% of 10 core EU countries), annual developments Four NMS non-euro members Croatia Bulgaria Again, annual movements not always straight Hungary Poland Note: the 10 core EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom

10 Southern euro members fate 10

11 Price level Convergence: GDP per capita (at PPS) and price level (% of 10 core EU countries), 1995 vs Four pre-4 EU members 100 Disappointing, even divergence in Greece and Italy GR- PT- PT-1995 IT- ES- ES-1995 GR-1995 IT GDP per capita Note: the 10 core EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, 11 Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom

12 Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Price level (% EU core) Convergence: GDP per capita (at PPS) and price level (% of 10 core EU countries), annual developments Four pre- 4 euro members Greece Italy Annual data: long and painful adjustment in Spain and Portugal Note: the 10 core EU countries are: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom Portugal Spain

13 Recent developments in new EU members 13

14 Quarterly GDP developments since 0 (0Q1=100) Euro members Cyprus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Malta Outs Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Croatia Note: chain-linked volumes Boom & bust in some, but not all euro members 14 Long-term: no clear ranking

15 Employment, business sector excluding construction, real estate and agriculture (0Q1=100) 130 Euro members Cyprus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Malta Outs Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Croatia No clear ranking Note: smoothed values

16 Net FDI inflow (% GDP, average ) Euro members Outs Malta 96.2 Bulgaria 2.8 Estonia 3.5 Croatia 2.3 Latvia 2.2 Hungary 2.1 Slovenia 1.4 Romania 1.9 Lithuania 1.2 Poland 1.7 Slovakia 0.8 Czech Rep. 1.5 Cyprus -7.4 No clear ranking Note: quarterly data is rather volatile, see next slide 16

17 Exports / imports of trading partners (0Q1=100) 240 Euro members Cyprus Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovakia Slovenia Malta Outs Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania 240 Croatia Fixers & floaters: quite similar (except Croatia) Note: goods and services; 41 trading partners considered, including Russia and Ukraine 17

18 Lessons 18

19 What went wrong in southern Europe? Pre-crisis problems: Interest rate fall with euro entry, but higher inflation low real interest rates unsustainable consumption & credit booms, fuelling wage growth beyond productivity growth, external imbalances & indebtedness Structurally weak fiscal positions When the crisis hit: Sudden stop in capital inflows necessitated harsh current account adjustments (though ECB helped) Strained fiscal positions necessitated procyclical fiscal tightening Painful wage falls, unemployment increases, emigration Inadequate crisis management framework of the euro area exaggerated the problem 19

20 Lessons from southern Europe Maastricht criteria inadequate for successful euro adoption Importance of preventing the build-up of macro vulnerabilities, like large foreign indebtedness and bank balance sheet fragility Avoid the destabilising impact of low real interest rates (macroprudential policy & counter-cyclical fiscal policy) Importance of heathy fiscal positions Importance of labour market flexibility 20

21 NMS: both good and bad performances in both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes Long-run : convergence continues, despite crisisrelated adjustments, in both euro members and nonmembers Pre-crisis: bubble in fixed-rate Baltics, but also in floating rate Hungary After : Slovakia (euro) better growth and employment performance than in the Czech Republic (float) Poland (float) no recession, yet Bulgaria (fixed) mild recession and faster growth in 9-16 than in Czech Republic (float) and Hungary (float) Export market share of Poland (float) and Bulgaria (fixed) developed almost the same way New euro members so far avoided the fate of southern euro members 21

22 A few comments on Croatia Rather weak convergence in compared to other new EU members; long-lasting economic weakness after Yet the option of using the exchange rate to correct imbalances and absorb shocks was not used, Croatia maintained a tightly managed exchange rate Croatia is heavily euroized What s the sense of keeping an own currency when not using it? 22

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