Mark Allen. The Financial Crisis and Emerging Europe: What Happened and What s Next? Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe

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1 The Financial Crisis and Emerging Europe: What Happened and What s Next? Seminar with Romanian Trade Unions Bucharest, November 2, 21 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe

2 I. Course of the crisis II. Why was Emerging Europe badly hit? III. Outlook for the Region

3 The crisis started in the USA financial sector. Bank CDS spreads (basis points) 6 Bear Stearns Lehman Turning point 5 4 United States Euro area United Kingdom Source: Bloomberg

4 and rapidly spread to other sectors. Heat map Subprime RMBS Money markets Financial Institution Commercial MBS Prime RMBS Corporate credit Advanced Sovereigns Emerging Markets Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 21

5 The financial shock caused a collapse in world trade Value of exports (percent change, year-on-year) Advanced Economies Emer.& Develop. Eco. World Source: International Financial Statistics

6 and in global output. Change in real GDP (Year on year) Euro Area Japan United States Emer.& Develop. Eco. World Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21

7 Central banks lowered interest rates to ease conditions. Policy rates (Percent) 6 EuroArea UK USA Japan Switzerland 2 1 Source: Bloomberg

8 and then provided unconventional support. Total central bank assets (Jan-7 = 1) 4 Euro Area 35 UK USA 3 Japan 25 China Source: Bloomberg

9 Banks have recognized losses and recapitalized. Capital raising (billions USD) 25 Expected additional writedowns / loss provisions (27q2-21q2) Realized writedowns / loss provisions (21q3-21q4) Implied cumulative loss rate (right scale) (percent) Total United States Euro Area United Kingdom Other Mature Europe Asia

10 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 Advanced country public finances have weakened Public Debt (Percentage of GDP) Advanced Economies Emer.& Develop. Eco

11 and doubts about government solvency have grown The Four Phases of the Crisis (1-yr sovereign swap spreads, percent) 3 25 I. Financial crisis buildup II. Systemic outbreak III. Systemic response IV. Sovereign debt crisis USA Germany Italy UK Japan Source: Bloomberg

12 although the deterioration was caused by recession. G-2 Advanced Economies: Increase in Public Debt, (Total increase: 37 percentage points of GDP; 29 PPP weighted GDP) (28 215) Interest-growth dynamics (r-g) 7.2 Lending operations 4.1 Financial sector support 3.2 Fiscal stimulus 4.5 Revenue loss 18 Source: World Economic Outlook, April 21; Staff estimates

13 Source: World Economic Outlook, April 21 Global imbalances still need correction Current Account deficits (Billions of USD) 25 Other Developed Economies Other Euro Area Other Emerging Economies United States Japan Germany China World

14 and not all currency movements are helping. US dollar exchange rates (Jan-25 = 1) Euro Real (Brazil) Renminbi (China) Rupee (India) Yen (Japan) Won (Korea)

15 I. Course of the crisis II. Why was Emerging Europe badly hit? III. Outlook for the Region

16 Emerging Europe was among the fastest growing regions Real GDP per capita growth (average annual growth rates) China & India Emerging Europe Sub- Saharan Africa Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 Developing Asia ASEAN-5 ME & NA Western Hemisphere

17 but was most affected by crisis. Real GDP per capita growth (average annual growth rates) China & India Emerging Europe Sub- Saharan Africa Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 Developing Asia ASEAN-5 ME & NA Western Hemisphere

18 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to Growth in Emerging Europe was fueled by a boom in domestic demand Real GDP growth, Hungary Serbia B&H Albania Croatia Macedonia Average Estonia Bulgaria Real domestic demand growth, Latvia Lithuania Romania Ukraine Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook database.

19 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to which was in turn driven by domestic credit Real domestic demand growth, Latvia Romania Estonia Russia Moldova Bulgaria Slovak Republic Serbia Turkey Macedonia, FYR Croatia Poland Albania B&H Czech Republic Hungary Belarus Montenegro Ukraine Lithuania Real private sector credit growth, Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook database.

20 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to financed by bank inflows... Change in private sector credit to GDP, Ukraine Bulgaria Latvia Estonia 4 Lithuania 3 Albania Hungary Czech Republic B&H Romania 2 Russia Poland Croatia Turkey 1 Belarus Slovak Republic Change in external position of BIS-reporting banks, Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook database.

21 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to and other capital inflows. Cumulative Net Capital Inflows, (percent of 23 GDP) Portfolio FDI Other Total

22 Source: Haver Analytics This lead to increased inflation Consumer Price Inflation (annual percent change) June-8 January-6

23 Source: Haver Analytics; country statistical offices 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to and asset price bubbles. Change in Real Estate Prices, (percentage change)

24 Sources: National authorities; and IMF, International Financial Statistics. Foreign exchange lending become popular Total Private Sector Credit by Currency, 28 (percentage of GDP) Foreign currency indexed Foreign currency National currency

25 and foreign currency mortgages Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics reached high levels. Foreign Currency Loans to Households, 28 (Percentage of GDP)

26 Source: BIS Bank inflows suddenly stopped External positions of reporting banks (USD billions, estimated exchange rate adjusted changes) Other Emerging Europe Ukraine SEE-Non-EU SEE-EU Baltics CEE Excludes: Russia, Turkey

27 and exports shrank Real Exports (Seasonally adjusted, index Sep-8=1) Bulgaria Croatia Hungary Poland Romania Russia Ukraine Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Source: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations

28 and consumption had to adjust. Real Private Consumption (Seasonally adjusted, index Sep-8=1) Bulgaria Croatia Hungary Poland Romania Russia Ukraine Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Source: Eurostat, Haver Analytics, and IMF staff calculations

29 Output fell as consumption fell. GDP real growth (year on year) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia, Republic of Ukraine Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21

30 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to Fiscal expenditures kept pace with Real expenditure growth, booming revenues Ukraine Romania Belarus Montenegro Russia Latvia Moldova Lithuania Kosovo Estonia Albania B&H Serbia Poland Bulgaria Macedonia, FYR Croatia Turkey Hungary Real revenue growth, degree line Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 21

31 until the recession led to wider deficits. Change in Fiscal Balance (percent of GDP) 9% 6% 3% % -3% -6% -9% -12% Change in Expenditures Change in Revenues Change in Fiscal Balance Projected Fiscal Balance 21 Source: World Economic Outlook, June 21

32 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to The race was not to the swift Average real GDP growth, Albania Slovak Republic Kosovo Poland Turkey Russia Serbia Moldova Montenegro Macedonia, FYR B&H Bulgaria Ukraine Lithuania Romania Czech Republic Latvia Estonia Croatia Hungary Average real GDP growth, Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and IMF staff calculations.

33 I. Course of the crisis II. Why was Emerging Europe badly hit? III. Outlook for the Region

34 Source: World Economic Outlook Emerging Europe is relatively open to trade Import and Export as a share of GDP (27, percent)

35 Source: Direction of Trade Statistics; World Economic Outlook, April 21 and particularly dependent on eurozone conditions. Merchandise exports to Euro Area as a share of GDP (27-29 average, percent) EU Members - Euro Members - Others

36 Emerging Europe represents small part of EU economy Each hexagon represents 5.7 billion euro of GDP. Approximately the size of the economy of Malta.

37 Countries with deepest recessions are recovering slower 8 Average GDP growth, Estonia Lithuania Latvia Hungary Montenegro Romania Moldova Serbia B&H Bulgaria Croatia GDP growth in 29 Belarus Macedonia Kosovo Poland Albania Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook

38 but growth has resumed almost everywhere GDP real growth (year on year) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia, Republic of Ukraine Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21

39 although several years progress has been lost. GDP volume (25 = 1) Estimated 21 difference from 28 GDP level: Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia, Republic of Ukraine - 5.% - 5.8% +5.1% - 8.9% - 1.5% - 12.% Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21

40 Industrial production is recovering Industrial production (Year on year change) Czech Rep. Poland Slovakia Poland Hungary, Romania Romania Croatia, Bulgaria, Serbia Croatia Czech Republic Slovak Republic Hungary Serbia, Republic of Bulgaria Source: International Financial Statistics

41 making improvement in labor market possible Unemployment rate 25 2 Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia, Republic of Ukraine Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21

42 and many countries are becoming more competitive. Gross Real Wage Growth (average of the year-over-year growth for the months, in percent) January September 28 January June 21-1 Lithuania Hungary Estonia Croatia B&H Macedonia Poland Romania Serbia Source: Haver Analytics; EMED Emerging EMEA; and IMF staff calculations. Ukraine Bulgaria

43 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 Fiscal deficits are being corrected Fiscal Deficit (percentage of GDP) Bulgaria Poland Serbia, Republic of Hungary Romania Ukraine

44 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 but debt levels have increased... Fiscal Debt (percentage of GDP) Bulgaria Poland Serbia, Republic of Hungary Romania Ukraine

45 although sovereign debt is lower than in GIIPS. Sovereign Debt to GDP (percent) Czech Republic Romania Croatia Ukraine Greece Italy Spain Austria Source: World Economic Outlook, April 21 Hungary Slovak Republic Serbia, Republic of Ireland Portugal EU NMS Other Emerging Europe GIIPS

46 Spreads in Emerging Europe have fallen. 5yr CDS spreads (basis points) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Ukraine Source: Bloomberg

47 Spreads in Emerging Europe have fallen. 5yr CDS spreads (basis points) Source: Bloomberg Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Ukraine

48 Source: International Financial Statistics Capital inflows are less buoyant Inflows to Emerging Europe (billions USD) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia Ukraine Total

49 Source: International Financial Statistics Capital inflows are less buoyant Inflows to Emerging Europe (billions USD) Direct investment Portfolio investment Other Total

50 as part of post-crisis deleveraging. Foreign Banks Exposure in relation to GDP (peak = 1) Asia (Sep 1997) t-2 t-15 t-1 t-5 t t+5 t+1 t+15 t+2 t+25 t+3 Source: BIS; IMF, International Financial Statistics Emerging Europe (Jun 28) Latin America (Dec 1983)

51 Emerging Europe credit growth is still tied to cross-border flows. Cross-border bank deleveraging (peak = 1) 8 BIS Cross-Border Bank Flows, 29Q3 to 21Q1 (percent of GDP) Hungary Ukraine Russia Estonia Lithuania Poland Czech Romania Central and Eastern Europe Emerging markets and other countries Latvia Croatia Bulgaria Turkey Real Growth in Credit to the Private Sector, 29Q3 to 21Q1 (percent)

52 Source: World Economic Outlook, October 21 NPLs are peaking. 45 Non-performing loans (As 4 a percent of total loans) Bulgaria Poland Serbia Hungary Romania Ukraine q1

53 and credit growth remains very restrained. Private Credit Growth (percent, year-on-year) Bulgaria Hungary Poland Romania Serbia, Republic of Ukraine 2-2 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Source: International Financial Statistics

54 Sovereign creditworthiness directly affects that of banks Change in local senior financial CDS October 29 to June 21 Greece October 29 to February 21 Portugal Italy Spain Ireland Greece Austria Spain Portugal Belgium Percent change in sovereign CDS Source: Bloomberg

55 Domestic and a feedback loop ties sovereign strains to banking system SOVEREIGN E. Similar Sovereign come under pressure B. Increase in bank funding cost C. Erosion in potential for official support A. Mark to market fall in value of govt. bonds held by local banks BANKS I. Increase in contingent liabilities of govt. Foreign SOVEREIGN I. Increase in contingent liabilities of govt. D. Mark to market fall in value of govt. bonds held by foreign banks F. Contagion channels (A,B, & C as above) G. Rise in Counter-party risk BANKS H. Withdrawal of funding for risky banks

56 Thank you

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