Curing Europe s Growing Pains: Which Reforms?
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1 Curing Europe s Growing Pains: Which Reforms? Luc Everaert Assistant Director European Department International Monetary Fund Brussels, 21 November Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved.
2 Growth Emergency: Death and Debt Average and Distribution Reform dynamics: Crisis = opportunity? Short-term pain for long-term gain Traps and space Which reforms? Confidence Close the gaps Competition and integration
3 70 Figure 1. Old-age Dependency Ratio 1/ Germany 20 Figure 2. Impact of a Negative Growth Shock on Gross General Government Debt, 2016 (Percent of GDP) GRC Netherlands Finland Slovenia Portugal France Spain Greece Malta EA17 Belgium Developed Slovakia Estonia Luxembourg Ireland Cyprus Austria Italy Impact of lower -growth scenario on debt NLD AUT CYP FIN MLT SVN SVK LUX BEL DEU ESP FRA ITA PRT IRL 20 World World EST Developed Baseline debt to GDP Source: United Nations. 1/ Ratio of population age 65+ per 100 population of age Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: Shock assumes that GDP growth is 1 percentage point below the baseline scenario from 2011 to 2016.
4 Selected Advanced Economies: Differential with the United States, (Percentage points) Differential in GDP Per Capita Differential in Labor Utilization dd Euro Area France and Germany Italy and Spain Northern Europe 1/ dd Euro Area France and Germany Italy and Spain Northern Europe 1/ d d d dd d dd dd dd Labor utilization Labor productivity Source: Mourre (2009), European Commission, and IMF staff calculations. 1/ GDP-weighted average of Denmark, Sweden and UK. dd dd dd dd Unemployment Participation Rate Hours worked Demographics
5 Figure 3.GDP Per Capita and Labor Utilization: Differential with EU, (Percentage points) Differential in GDP Per Capita 25 Differential in Labor Utilization Demographics Hours worked Participation Rate Unemployment Labor productivity Labor utilization East North South Other -15 East North South Other Source: Mourre (2009), European Commission, and IMF staff calculations. Note: East EU comprises Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic; North EU comprises Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden; South EU comprises Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain; and Other EU comprises Ireland, United Kingdom. Aggregations are GDP weighted.
6 80 Figure 4. Employment Rate, East North South Other Female Source: Eurostat and IMF staff calculations. Note: East EU comprises Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic; North EU comprises Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden; South EU comprises Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain; and Other EU comprises Ireland, United Kingdom. Aggregations are GDP weighted.
7 Crisis = opportunity? Short-term pain for long-term gain Traps and space
8 Figure 10. Structural Reforms Gaps in European Economies: A Heatmap 1/ Core Euro Area Southern Euro Area Other Euro Area Selected Comparators Germany France Netherlands Belgium Italy Spain 2/ Portugal Greece Austria Finland Ireland Denmark Sweden U.K. U.S. Japan Medium term Labor market inefficiency Business regulations Network regulation Retail sector regulation Professionnal services regulation Long term Institutions and contracts Human capital Infrastructure Innovation Memo item: GDP per Capita level ( , US=100) Sources: OECD; World Economic Forum; Fraser Institute; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ See IMF, 2010d for a description of the methodology, and of the detailed components of the labor market heatmap. 2/ The indicators do not incorporate the labor market reform implemented in Spain in 2010.
9 Table 2. Weighted Average Mark-ups U.S. Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain Manufacturing and construction Market services Research and development Financial intermediation Air transport Retail Source: Christopolou and Vermeulen (2008).
10 60 Figure 9. Export or Goods, (Percent of GDP) East North South Other Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff calculations. Note: East EU comprises Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic; North EU comprises Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden; South EU comprises Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain; and Other EU comprises Ireland, United Kingdom. Aggregations are GDP weighted.
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13 6 Figure 5. Convergence across EU Economies Change in real GDP per capita, (Annulaized percent) 5 4 Bulgaria Romania Latvia Lithuania Estonia Poland Slovak Republic y = x R² = Czech Republic 3 East Slovenia North Hungary 2 Greece South Sweden Finland Cyprus Other Netherlands Austria 1 Malta UK Germany Spain Ireland Belgium Portugal France 0 Denmark Italy -1 Source: WEO. ¹Data for Malta are for GDP per capita (in log), PPP, US dollar, 1999 ¹
14 31 Figure 6. Investment Ratios and initial Income Conditions 29 Estonia y = x R² = GFCF/GDP ratio average (Percent) Latvia Romania Bulgaria East North South Other Spain Czech Republic Slovenia Slovak Republic Portugal Ireland Hungary Lithuania Italy Austria Belgium Poland Greece Denmark Malta Finland France Netherlands Cyprus Germany Sweden United Kingdom GDP per capita PPP, US dollar, / Sources: WEO and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Data for Malta are for 2000.
15 3 Figure 7. Convergence across EA Economies Change in real GDP per capita, (Annulaized percent) Slovenia Greece Portugal Malta Cyprus Spain Finland Belgium North EA South EA Germany France y = -3.83x R² = Austria Netherlands Ireland Italy -1 GDP per capita (in log), PPP, US dollar, / Source: WEO. 1/ Data for Malta are for 2000.
16 Table 1. Average Annual Real Labor Productivity Growth, (Percent) Euro area average Germany Greece Italy Portugal Spain Market economy Total manufacturing (excl. electrical) ICT Construction Market services Distribution Finance Personal services Source: Chen, Milesi-Ferretti and Tressel (2011).
17 Figure 11. Patent Applications, / (Per 1000 working age persons) 0 Cyprus Malta Portugal Greece Belgium Spain Luxembourg Italy Netherlands Slovenia Ireland France Austria Finland Germany United States Source: WDI. 1/ Data for Portugal are for Blue for North EA countries and green for South EA countries.
18 40 Figure 8. Euro Area: Appreciation of REER (ULC Manufacturing Based), / (Percent) Finland Germany Ireland Austria Slovenia France Netherland BLEU 2/ Portugal Malta Spain Italy Cyprus Greece Sources: European Commission; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Real effective exchange rates are relative to the rest of euro area and based on annual data. Blue for North EA countries and green for South EA countries. 2/ BLEU stands for Belgium Luxembourg Economic Union.
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