Italian Firms, Global Markets 22 May 2012 CCIAA Parma

Transcription

1 Italian Firms, Global Markets 22 May 2012 CCIAA Parma Fabio Sdogati 1

2 Table of Contents 1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession 1.2. Great Divergences 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity 2.2. Fragmentation of Production 2

3 1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth UK 0.8 Japan 2.0 USA 2.1 DEU FRA ITA ESP Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April

4 1. The Global Scenario 1.1. The Great Recession Forecasts: 2012 real GDP growth Russia 4.0 Turkey 2.3 China 8.2 Mexico 3.6 Brazil 3.0 India 6.9 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April

5 1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between OECD and non-oecd countries: Contribution to annualized real GDP OECD Non- OECD Sources: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 90, 28 November 2011 Note: Calculated using moving nominal GDP weights, PPP. 5

6 1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between OECD and non-oecd countries: Growth of emerging markets (GDP, 2001=100) Developing Asia Emerging and developing economies Central and eastern Europe Sub- Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Advanced economies Euro area 50 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, accessed on May

7 1. The Global Scenario 1.2. Great Divergences Divergences between Europe and the US: Unemployment (%) 12 United States Euro area (EU17) % % M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M02 Source: Eurostat, accessed on May

8 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Ways out? Productivity Yet, from the Mediobanca Unioncamere report: La presenza delle medie imprese nei settori convenzionalmente definiti high tech è marginale tanto a livello nazionale quanto nel Nord Est. Secondo la metodologia OCSE (basata sull intensità delle spese di ricerca) l alta tecnologia copre appena il 3,1% del fatturato. 8

9 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity In Italy, high-technology (and productive) firms are very rare: Notes: Source: VA = value added; CL = Cost of Labor Mediobanca and Unioncamere, based on OCSE data 9

10 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Labor productivity (output per hour, 2002=100) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed on May 2012 Taiwan Korea United States Japan Netherlands France Germany Italy 10

11 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Value added by enterprise size class, non-financial businesses, 2008 Poland Romania Slovakia United Kingdom Germany Hungary Ireland Finland Lituania Czech Republic Austria Bulgaria EU-27 Sweden Belgium Denmark Slovenia Estonia Latvia Portugal Netherlands Luxemburg Spain ITALY Cyprus 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: Eurostat Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more) 11

12 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Number of persons employed by enterprise size class, non-financial, 2008 Slovakia United Kingdom Germany Denmark Romania Finland Netherlands Sweden Slovenia Czech Republic Austria Ireland EU-27 Bulgaria Lituania Poland Luxemburg Belgium Estonia Latvia Hungary Spain Cyprus Portugal ITALY Source: Eurostat 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Micro (1-9) Small (10-49) Medium-sized (50-249) Large (250 or more) 12

13 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Larger firms enjoy higher productivity: Apparent labour productivity (relative to total, %) Large Medium-sized Small 90.5 Micro Source: Eurostat 13

14 2. Internationalization 2.1. Productivity Larger firms enjoy higher productivity: Apparent labour productivity, EU-27, 2008 Thousand of per person employed Network energy supply Mining & quarrying Real estate activities Water, sewerage, waste & recycling Information & communication Prof., scientific & technical activities Administrative & support services Transportation & storage Non-financial business economy Manufacturing Construction Distributive trades Repair: comp., pers. & h'hold goods Accommodation & food services SMEs Large enterprises Source: Eurostat 14

15 2. Internationalization 2.2. Fragmentation of Production Freer trade due to falling protectionist pressures Falling transport costs Falling coordination costs BOTH Mode 1: Global Resource Seeking Globally integrated enterprise AND Mode 2: Global Market Seeking High growth of per capita income in emerging countries Slow growth and deindustrialization in high per capita income countries 15

16 2. Internationalization 2.2. Fragmentation of Production Share of intermediate goods in non-fuel merchandise trade, China, Hong Kong Japan Italy Thailand Germany Slovakia China Indonesia World 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: UN Comtrade Import Export 16