Europe divided? Attitudes to immigration ahead of the 2019 European elections. Dr. Lenka Dražanová

Transcription

1 Europe divided? Attitudes to immigration ahead of the 2019 European elections Dr. Lenka Dražanová

2 Europe divided? Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to immigration BUT country differences matter! Salience really matters for voting! BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU Europeans support common EU migration policy BUT big differences between countries and over time Good news: Europe more united than before Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever

3 Observatory of Public Attitudes to Migration OPAM 2.0

4 Different types of attitudes towards immigration Attitudes towards policy Evaluation of specific immigrant groups Opinion about immigrants Perceived effects of immigration

5 Why do individuals differ?

6 Positive attitudes to immigration from outside EU (source: Eurobarometer)

7 Positive attitudes to immigration from the EU (source: Eurobarometer)

8 May 2012 Sep 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 May 2016 Sep 2016 Jan 2017 May 2017 Sep 2017 Jan 2018 What do you think are the two most important issues facing at the moment? % saying immigration 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% (source Eurobarometer, ) 0% Country Europe Personally

9 What do you think are the two most important issues facing at the moment? % saying immigration Source: Eurobarometer, 2018 Country EU

10 What do you think are the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment? % saying immigration Source: Eurobarometer, 2014,

11 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 % in favour of a common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer; all EU28 countries, ) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% For Against

12 Here s the less good news Net positivity to a common European migration policy Spain Germany Netherlands Luxembourg Sweden Ireland Cyprus Lithuania Belgium Malta Portugal Italy Bulgaria Slovenia France Greece Denmark Romania Croatia UK Finland Austria Slovakia Latvia Hungary Poland Estonia Czechia -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

13 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 May 2017 Aug 2017 Nov 2017 Feb 2018 May 2018 Nov 2014 Feb 2015 May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016 Aug 2016 Nov 2016 Feb 2017 May 2017 Aug 2017 Nov 2017 Feb 2018 May % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Attitudes to a common European policy on migration (Source: Eurobarometer, ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% Germany for France for Italy for Germany against France against Italy against Hungary for Poland for Czechia for Hungary against Poland against Czechia against

14 Why differences between countries? PRO Commonplace Unthreatening Equal in status and power People who cooperate Untraditional ANTI Threatening (to norms, values and security) Viewed as subordinate People who compete for resources

15 Why do countries vary?

16 Europe divided? Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to immigration BUT country differences matter! Salience really matters for voting! BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU Europeans support common EU migration policy BUT big differences between countries and over time Good news: Europe more united than before Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever

17 Thank you!

18 Back-up slides

19 A common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer, 2017) Age Education 100% 100% 80% 73% 70% 68% 71% 80% 69% 70% 66% 75% 60% 60% 40% 20% 27% 30% 32% 29% 40% 20% 31% 30% 34% 25% 0% y y y 55 + y 0% no edu Up to 15 y y 20+ y For Against For Against 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Gender 71% 70% 29% 30% Male Female 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Ideology 75% 72% 65% 25% 28% 35% Left Centre Right For Against For Against

20 What do you think are the two most important issues facing the EU at the moment? % saying immigration in % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Age 41% 43% 43% 37% y y y 55 + y Gender 44% 41% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Education 35% 36% 42% 46% no Up to 15 y y 20+ y education 39% Ideology 43% 48% 0% Male Female 0% Left Centre Right

21 What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country at the moment? % saying immigration

22 What do you think are the two most important issues facing left) your country at the moment? % saying immigration Age Education (age Gender Left - Right

23 What does the EU mean to you personally? (source Eurobarometer)

24 left) What does the EU mean to you personally? Age (source Eurobarometer 2017) Education (age Gender Left - Right

25 Immigration attitudes and foreign born population (source ESS 2014) (figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

26 Immigration attitudes and migrant integration (source ESS 2014) (figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

27 Immigration attitudes and migrant unemployment (source ESS 2014) (figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

28 Immigration attitudes and media coverage (source ESS 2014) (figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)