The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Central and Eastern Europe. Mark Allen

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1 The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Central and Eastern Europe Fourth Central European CEMS Conference Warsaw, February 25, 211 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe

2 Outline of the presentation Course of the crisis Why CEE was so vulnerable How the crisis affected the region Aftermath of the crisis

3 Growth in the Great Moderation Change in real GDP (Year on year) 1 8 World Emer.& Develop. Eco. CEE4 Advanced Economies Cent. & East. Europe Source: WEO database

4 Inflation under control Change in Consumer Prices Index (Year on year) World Advanced Economies USA EU Cent. & East. Europe Emer.& Develop. Eco. CEE Source: WEO database

5 But growing global imbalances Current Accout Imbalances (billions of USD) Fuel exporters Cent. & East. Europe USA Japan Germany China ROW World Source: WEO database

6 And rising asset prices House prices (index, 23q1=1) Ireland Netherlands Spain* UK USA EA-16 1 * q1-24=1 Q1-23 Q1-24 Q1-25 Q1-26 Q1-27 Source: Haver Analytics

7 Rapidly growing leverage Debt Outstanding by Sector (US) (Billions of dollars) Foreign Federal government State and local governments Total Business Total Household Domestic Financial Sector Source: Federal Reserve

8 And explosive growth of new instruments Total Interest Rate and Currency Swaps outstanding (Notional amounts, Trillions of dollars) Source: ISDA Market Survey

9 Emergence of sub-prime crisis US Sub-prime mortgages deliquencies by vintage year (percent) Source: GFSR, April 28

10 Spread of the financial crisis Heat map Subprime RMBS Money markets Financial Institutions Commercial MBS Prime RMBS Corporate credit Emerging Markets Sovereign credit Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Source: Global Financial Stability Report, April 21

11 Collapse of credit supply Bank Lending to Private Sector (percent, year on year) United States Euro Area United Kingdom Source: Global Financial Stability Report, January 211

12 Unprecedented fall in world trade World exports growth (percent, year on year) average Source: WEO database

13 Unprecedented fall in world trade World exports growth (percent, year on year) Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Source: WEO database average average

14 CEE region most seriously affected GDP growth (percent, year on year) Source: WEO database Advanced Economies Emer.& Develop. Eco. Cent. & East. Europe Developing Asia Western Hemisphere

15 Recession sharpest in Hungary GDP growth (percent, year on year) Czech Republic Slovak Republic Hungary Poland Source: WEO database

16 Wide current account deficits in CEE Current Account Balances (percent of GDP) Advanced Economies Cent. & East. Europe Western Hemisphere Emer.& Develop. Eco. Developing Asia CEE Source: WEO database

17 Region is very open to trade Trade openess (percent of GDP, 27) Emerging Europe Latin America Africa Asia Turkey Romania Serbia, Poland Croatia Ukraine Latvia B&H Lithuania Estonia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Slovak Rep. Brazil Colombia Argentina Uruguay Mexico Ecuador Bolivia Paraguay Kenya Egypt South Africa Nigeria Morocco India Indonesia Philippines Thailand Source: WEO database

18 And dependent on eurozone market Merchandise exports to Euro Area as a share of GDP (27-29 average) Czech Rep. Hungary Slovak Rep. Slovenia Bulgaria Poland Estonia Romania Lithuania Russia Croatia United Kingdom Source: Direction of Trade Statistics; World Economic Outlook, April 21 Latvia Turkey Ukraine China Brazil United States

19 Steady capital inflows before crisis Net Capital Inflows (percent od GDP) 12% Poland 1% Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Source: WEO database

20 Credit fueled a property boom 3 Change in nominal housing prices, Latvia Estonia 2 Bulgaria 15 Lithuania 1 Poland Czech Republic 5 Slovak Republic Hungary Source: WEO database Change in credit to GDP ratio, 23-7

21 And increase in stock prices Equities indices (Jan-5=1) Hungary applies for external support Czech Hungary Poland Slovakia Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 Source: Haver, WEO database May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11

22 Real wages also grew strongly Real wage index (Jan-5=1) Czech Hungary Poland (enterprise sector) Slovakia Hungary applies for external support Jan-5 May-5 Sep-5 Jan-6 Source: Haver, WEO database May-6 Sep-6 Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1

23 Fiscal strength was misleading General Government Balance (percent od GDP) -1% -9% -8% -7% Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % Source: WEO database

24 Net banking inflows came to a stop Banking Flows (millions USD) Slovakia Czech Republic Hungary Poland CEE Dec.27 Mar.28 Jun.28 Sep.28 Dec.28 Mar.29 Jun.29 Sep.29 Source: BIS

25 IMF provided assistance to region 28 EU countries: EU member countries SBA program FCL program Non-EU countries: SBA program EFF program PCL program Precautionary programs

26 Global growth has resumed Change in real GDP (Year on year) World Advanced Economies Emer.& Develop. Eco. Cent. & East. Europe CEE Source: WEO database

27 But imbalances are reemerging Current Accout Imbalances (millions of USD) Fuel exporters Cent. & East. Europe USA Japan Germany China ROW World Source: WEO database

28 Non-performing loans have risen Non-performing loans (percent of total loans) Czech Republic Slovak Republic Hungary Poland Source: IMF, GFSR

29 Fiscal consolidation is needed General Government Fiscal Balance (percent of GDP) Euro Area Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic Source: WEO database

30 As debt burdens increase General Government Gross Debt (percent of GDP) Source: WEO database Euro Area Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovak Republic

31 1 As the boom in the Baltic states ended in 27, data for the Baltics refer to Hares and tortoises Average real GDP growth, Macedonia, FYR Hungary Kosovo Poland B&H Czech Republic Croatia Serbia Albania Bulgaria Slovak Republic Turkey Russia Moldova Montenegro Ukraine Romania Estonia Lithuania Latvia Average real GDP growth, Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook and IMF staff calculations.

32 Lessons for Central and Eastern Europe 1. Accession to European Union and eurozone will not anchor policy as in the past. 2. Growth can no longer rely on such large inflows of bank credit. 3. Budgets need consolidation throughout the region. 4. Growth will need a new stimulus Based on exports, rather than domestic consumption. Regulatory and structural reforms still needed to remove obstacles to entrepreneurship and efficiency.

33 Thank you!

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