Monthly Inbound Update June th August 2017

Transcription

1 Monthly Inbound Update June th August 217 1

2 Contents 1. About this data 2. Headlines 3. Journey Purpose: June, last 3 months, year to date and rolling twelve months by journey purpose 4. Global Regions: June, 3 months ending June, year to date and rolling twelve months by global region 5. Outbound and Competitors 6. Exchange rates 7. Individual Markets: Percentage change in visits 8. Longer term trends: Overall trends since 2, Journey purpose, Global regions 9. Detailed monthly trends: Overall visits and spend, Journey purpose, Global regions 1. Definitions and more information 2

3 About this data Our monthly update presents the latest International Passenger Survey (IPS) data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Quarterly Release for this period (Q2, April June 217), which may contain some revisions, is scheduled to be released on 12 th October 217. This will provide data on visits by markets and UK region visited up to Q The next Monthly Release will be on 22 nd September 217 covering data for July 217. The Inbound research & insights section of the VisitBritain website has much more detail on long term trends, visits from individual markets and to UK regions. Short term figures give an indication of the very latest trends, but should be used with caution. IPS is not designed to report accurately by month, and figures should be treated as indicative. Analysis of the last three months or longer is more reliable. All figures are provisional and subject to revision by the ONS. All figures quoted are not seasonally adjusted. Numbers in some tables / charts may not sum due to rounding. The data is based on interviews with a sample of departing visitors. The number interviewed varies but is typically 3,-4, per month. 3

4 Headlines June 217 (provisional) JUNE 217 LAST 3 MONTHS (APR - JUN) YEAR TO DATE (JAN - JUN 217) ROLLING 12 MONTHS (JUL JUN 217) % change vs. Jun 216 % change vs. Apr '16 - Jun '16 % change vs. Jan - Jun '16 % change vs. Jul '15 - Jun '16 ALL VISITS () 3,51 7% 1,75 8% 19,5 9% 39,14 7% Spend ( million) 2,16 2% 6,23 8% 1,58 11% 23,59 7% Visits: The UK received 3.5 million overseas visits in June, up 7% on June last year and setting a new June record. Between April and June 217 there were 1.8 million inbound visits to the UK, 8% up on the same period last year. With results available until June, we can now see that the first half of 217 was a record setting period with the UK welcoming 19.1 million visits, 9% more than in 216. Over the longer term, 12 months to June 217, there were 39.1 million visits to the UK the best ever rolling 12 month period. Spending: June spending rose 2% compared to June 216 to reach 2.2 billion (not quite enough to set a new June record). However, with record setting results in each of the first five months of the year, inbound visitors have spent a record 1.6 billion in the first half of 217, 11% more than the first half of 216 and the first time inbound visitor spending has topped 1 billion in the first six months of any year. Combining this spending with spend during the last half of 216, visitors have spent a record 24 billion in the UK the highest ever 12 month period. Spend per visit: On average, for the last 12 months, spend per visit was 63 - which has been rising gradually since the beginning of 217 as spending growth has outpaced visit growth. All monthly data is provisional. Final 217 data to be released in

5 Journey Purpose By journey purpose Visits () JUNE 217 % change vs. Jun 216 LAST 3 MONTHS (APR - JUN) Visits () % change vs. Apr '16 - Jun '16 YEAR TO DATE (JAN - JUN 217) Visits () % change vs. Jan - Jun '16 ROLLING 12 MONTHS (JUL JUN 217) Visits () % change vs. Jul '15 - Jun '16 Holiday 1,55 21% 4,72 2% 7,53 2% 15,17 12% VFR 89 2% 2,83 2% 5,51 4% 11,78 8% Business 8-7% 2,4-4% 4,53-3% 9,6 % Miscellaneous 27 6% 8 6% 1,48 13% 3,13 2% Holiday visits were up 21% to a June record of 1.6 million. Building on strong growth earlier this year there were a record 7.5 million holiday visits in the first half of 217, up 2% on the start of 216 and the first time more than 7 million holiday visits have arrived in the UK before the start of July. Over the longer term rolling 12 months to June 217, the UK welcomed 15.2 million holiday visits a record and 12% higher than the previous 12 month period. Visits to friends and relatives (VFR) were up 2% to a June record of 89, this year. In the first six months of 217, VFR visits have set new monthly year on year records in four individual months. Added together the UK has welcomed a record 5.5 million VFR visits in the first half of the year 4% more than in the first half of 216. Business visits have been variable so far in 217, posting negative results in June this year down 7% compared to the record June 216. With only January and May registering growth, there were 3% fewer business visits to the UK in the first half of 217, compared to the start of 216. Due to a strong end of 216, business results for the 12 months to June 217 were just enough to match the previous record of 9.1 million (July 215 June 216). Miscellaneous journey purpose visits are a combination of a wide range of different journey purposes, including (but not limited to) short term study, looking for work, shopping, attending a sports event and many more. In June 217 visits to the UK were 6% higher than the previous year at a record 27,. With new monthly records set in four out of the last six months, visits were up 13% in the first half of 217, but not quite setting a new record. Short term figures give an indication of the very latest trends, but should be used with caution. IPS is not designed to report accurately by month, and figures should be treated as indicative. Analysis of the last three months or longer is more reliable. 5

6 Global Regions By global region Visits () JUNE 217 % change vs. Jun 216 LAST 3 MONTHS (APR - JUN) Visits () % change vs. Apr '16 - Jun '16 YEAR TO DATE (JAN - JUN 217) Visits to the UK from all EU markets in June 217 rose 2% compared to June last year to 2.1 million, a record June result. Over the first six months of 217 visits from these high volume markets are tracking 4% above the first half of 216 at a record 12.8 million visits. Looking specifically at visits from EU15 markets, these fell marginally during June this year down 1% compared to June 216. Visits during the three months from April to June were on par with the same period the year before. Results for the first half of the year are more positive boosted by strong results from January, March and April and are up 4% to a record 1.5 million. This is the second consecutive year EU15 visits have totalled more than 1 million in the first half of the year. In the 12 months to June 217, there were 21.2 million visits from EU15 markets, up 5% on the previous twelve months (a new 12 months to June record). Visits from all Other EU markets were 14% above June 216, at 4, visits a new June record. After a slower start to 217, recent results have boosted UK inbound visits to a record 2.3 million visits, 2% higher than the first half of 216. Over the longer term, there have been a record 4.8 million visits between July 216 and June 217, up 6% compared to the previous 12 months. Visit growth from the Rest of Europe returned to positive territory in June 217 after a decline last month. Buoyed by recent record setting year on year monthly results, visits for the first half of 217 were up 13% to a record setting 1.3 million. There were a record 65, visits to the UK from North America in June and visits from this region have continued to show the strongest growth so far this year jumping 35%, the second consecutive month of +3% year on year monthly growth. Encouragingly these results see North America visits edging closer to record levels. In the first six months of 217 there were 2.2 million visits, 25% up on the start of 216 and just 12, short of the record set in 2. Rest of World reported a 5% rise in visits to the UK during June 217, setting a new June record. In the first half of 217, there were 2.7 million visits, the strongest start to any year on record. Short term figures give an indication of the very latest trends, but should be used with caution. IPS is not designed to report accurately by month, and figures should be treated as indicative. Analysis of the last three months or longer is more reliable. The Q2 217 release scheduled for October 217 will provide data on visits by market. Visits () % change vs. Jan - Jun '16 ROLLING 12 MONTHS (JUL JUN 217) % change vs. Visits Jul '15 - Jun () '16 EU Total 2,1 2% 7, 2% 12,8 4% 25,96 5% EU15 1,69-1% 5,77 % 1,46 4% 21,15 5% Other EU 4 14% 1,22 8% 2,34 2% 4,8 6% Rest of Europe 2 12% 74 16% 1,29 13% 2,45 3% North America 65 35% 1,47 29% 2,24 25% 4,74 19% Rest of World 57 5% 1,55 19% 2,72 2% 6,1 7% 6

7 Outbound and Competitors Travel abroad by UK residents LAST THREE MONTHS: April June 217 % change vs. Apr Jun 216 Visits () 19,9 1% Spend ( million) 11,25 2% UK residents took 19.1 million visits abroad in the last three months just 1% more than the same period last year and spent 11.3 billion (in nominal terms), up 2% on last year. Between April and June 217, UK residents took more holiday visits (+3%), fewer business trips (- 7%), more visits to friends and relatives (+3%) and fewer miscellaneous visits (-23%) compared to the same period last year. Visits by UK residents to Europe were on par during April to June 217, compared to the same period the year before. Visits to EU15 countries fell 2% while visits to other EU destinations rose 7%. Visits to North America fell 4% whilst Rest of World visits jumped 13% year-on-year. The international picture* All of the UK s main competitors on the table below reported an increase in visits at the start of 217. The UK is just second behind Spain in terms of growth and leading against other EU countries such as Italy, Germany and France. All main competitors monitored here are in positive territory, with Spain the only country to report double digit growth so far this year. Figures relate to various periods so comparisons should be treated with caution. Destination Growth in overseas visits Period (Jan 217 to ) Spain 12% May UK 9% June Turkey 7% May Australia 7% April Canada 7% April Italy 5% April Germany 5% April Switzerland 5% May Netherlands 4% March USA 4% April France 4% March Rep. of Ireland 3% May More: VisitBritain attracts inbound visitors to Britain. For outbound travel from the UK visit ONS website *Source: UNWTO Periods for which we have data available varies by country, so figures are indicative and not necessarily directly comparable. 7

8 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26 Jul-26 Jan-27 Jul-27 Jan-28 Jul-28 Jan-29 Jul-29 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-216 Jul-216 Jan-217 Jul-217 Exchange rates The cost of Sterling for those visiting the UK was high in 215 but in 216 it began to fluctuate due to political uncertainty. From late June 216, the sharp depreciation of the pound following the referendum result made the UK a more affordable destination for many markets. The value of Sterling against both the dollar and the euro has remained low since its weakest point in October 216, although has risen slightly against the US dollar recently. Sterling was down 1% against the Euro in June 217 at Against the US dollar Sterling was also down 1% year on year at $1.28. It had gained from its low point in March 216. In June, Sterling was down 12% against the Australian dollar, 7% down against the Canadian dollar and down 5% against the Japanese Yen compared to June GBP Exchange rate: $ / per US Dollar Euro Source: Bank of England 8

9 Individual markets quarterly results Using the latest available market level data, the following three charts show the percentage change in visits to the UK from a number of markets in the latest rolling year of data (the latest four quarters compared to the previous four quarters, in this case from April 216 March 217 v April 215 March 216. European markets Asian and African markets American, Gulf, Australasian markets Belgium France Germany Italy Netherlands Denmark Greece Spain Portugal Austria Sweden Finland Irish Republic Turkey Switzerland Norway Czech Rep. Poland Romania Hungary Russia -4% -3% -3% -5% -13% -2% -7% 1% 8% 8% 1% 1% 14% 1% 12% 15% 11% 9% 2% 17% 33% Hong Kong Malaysia Thailand Singapore China Japan South Korea Israel India South Africa Nigeria -4% -1% -7% -14% -22% 19% 18% % 36% 9% 2% USA Canada Mexico Brazil Argentina Australia New Zealand UAE Saudi Arabia GCC combined -34% -6% -2% 7% 23% 24% 23% 6% 2% 7% More: Long term trends in visits from individual origin markets and world regions available here. 9

10 Annual Change Longer term trends Visits and spend since 21 15% Trends in inbound tourism since 2 1% 5% % -5% -1% Total Visits Total Expenditure -15% Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-2 Dec-2 Jun-3 Dec-3 Jun-4 Dec-4 Jun-5 Dec-5 Jun-6 Dec-6 Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 This chart shows the year-on-year change in headline IPS results based on a rolling twelve month basis. Presenting the data in this way enables us to spot emerging trends and helps to smooth out erratic results for any single month. This clearly illustrates the dip in inbound tourism seen post 9/11 in 22, and subsequent recovery in the mid-2s. The impact of the global economic crisis can be seen in 29 followed by slow but reasonably steady recovery over the more recent years. Whilst visit growth has remained positive in recent years, spend has fluctuated more. Results for the last 12 month period to June 217 show visits tracking 7% higher and spend up 7% compared to the previous 12 months. More: Data on long term trends are available here 1 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Rolling 12 Month Period Ending Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

11 Annual Change Longer term trends Journey Purpose 2% 15% 1% Trends in inbound tourism by purpose 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% Holiday Business VFR Miscellaneous (inc. short-term study) Jun-17 Mar-17 Dec-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Mar-16 Dec-15 Sep-15 Jun-15 Mar-15 Dec-14 Sep-14 Jun-14 Mar-14 Dec-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Sep-12 Jun-12 Mar-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-1 Sep-1 Jun-1 Rolling 12 Month Period Ending By journey purpose holiday visits were far more resilient to the economic downturn in the late 2s and have shown long term growth. There has been some variability in recent years; trends in 214 and 215 were positive but visit numbers for 216 were flat; however, holiday visits are up 12% for the latest 12 month period, late 216 having been a turning point. After suffering a significant downturn in 29, business visits have seen steady growth since, which intensified in 215 and through 216. Results for 217, so far have been more variable. Since 211, trips to visit friends and relatives have largely shown growth in recent years, and have stayed in positive growth territory since mid-213. Trips for other (miscellaneous) purposes account for a smaller number of visits and show the most variation. More: Data on long term trends are available here 11

12 Annual Change Longer term trends Global Region 3% Trends in inbound tourism by origin region since 27 2% 1% % -1% -2% North America Other EU Rest of World EU15 Rest of Europe -3% Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 This chart shows the longer term picture and the varying rates of recovery in visit numbers after the global financial crisis. Recently visits from EU15 markets have shown slow but steady growth. Visits from Other EU regions had strong visit growth in recent years, although has dropped in recent months. Visits from the Rest of Europe had the strongest recovery growth between 211/212 although have shown to be more volatile over the past couple of years. After a period of gradual recovery post global financial crisis, visits from North America have fluctuated but have been growing recently. Visits from the Rest of World region had a couple of periods of strong growth, though declined slightly in 216 but showing signs of recovery into 217. Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Rolling 12 Month Period Ending Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 More: Data on long term trends are available here 12

13 s m Detailed monthly trends Visits and spend 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Overseas Visits to the UK - Total Visits 211 2,65 1,725 2,323 2,663 2,789 2,856 3,362 3,26 2,64 2,798 2,264 2, ,246 1,736 2,267 2,917 2,97 2,57 3,158 3,16 2,612 2,69 2,476 2, ,2 1,951 2,181 2,888 3,84 2,897 3,34 3,535 2,86 2,98 2,443 2, ,359 2,99 2,352 2,952 3,274 3,264 3,47 3,576 2,984 3,8 2,625 2, ,419 2,99 2,431 3,155 3,578 3,25 3,71 3,78 3,81 3,454 2,648 2, ,599 2,314 2,638 3,115 3,586 3,267 3,786 3,757 3,116 3,346 3,167 2, ,931 2,368 2,999 3,72 3,52 3,51 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Overseas Visits to the UK - Total Spend 211 1, ,189 1,287 1,498 1,77 2,13 2,175 1,661 1,739 1,361 1, , ,143 1,443 1,594 1,624 2,55 2,432 1,988 1,524 1,36 1, ,245 1,46 1,3 1,677 1,723 1,894 2,55 2,443 2,179 1,967 1,52 1, ,45 1,187 1,32 1,526 1,791 2,121 2,669 2,568 2,178 1,79 1,571 1, ,346 1,43 1,45 1,64 2,19 2,195 2,429 2,473 2,239 2,28 1,49 1, ,324 1,116 1,325 1,687 1,957 2,122 2,667 2,714 2,222 1,892 1,728 1, ,561 1,215 1,575 2,2 2,5 2,16 More: Monthly data is replaced by the more accurate Quarterly data. Long term trends showing percentage change annually by and more is available here 13

14 s s s s Detailed monthly trends Journey Purpose 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Overseas Visits to the UK - Holiday Visits ,17 1,185 1,24 1,521 1,536 1,14 1, ,226 1,263 1,41 1,37 1, , ,149 1,367 1,234 1,544 1,727 1,9 1, ,296 1,448 1,455 1,59 1,747 1,112 1, ,392 1,584 1,381 1,657 1,726 1,18 1, ,153 1,499 1,282 1,589 1,697 1,131 1,184 1, ,127 1,64 1,53 1,55 1,4 1,2 1, Overseas Visits to the UK - Visits to Friends and Relatives , , ,16 1, , , ,16 1, , , , , , Overseas Visits to the UK - Business Visits Overseas Visits to the UK - Miscellaneous Visits (includes short-term study) More: Monthly data is replaced by the more accurate Quarterly data. Long term trends showing percentage change annually by and more is available here. Pease note that different scales are used on these charts to allow differences to be identified. 14

15 s s s s Detailed monthly trends Global Regions (1 of 2) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Overseas Visits to the UK from the EU15 countries 211 1,212 1,96 1,438 1,742 1,586 1,583 1,715 1,762 1,338 1,66 1,349 1, ,33 1,35 1,342 1,85 1,77 1,34 1,663 1,696 1,335 1,566 1,494 1, ,197 1,228 1,282 1,814 1,767 1,52 1,676 1,959 1,449 1,637 1,414 1, ,32 1,323 1,354 1,832 1,845 1,82 1,845 1,97 1,495 1,677 1,594 1, ,279 1,21 1,478 2,28 1,991 1,792 1,847 1,944 1,495 1,919 1,54 1, ,48 1,343 1,521 1,933 2,121 1,712 1,879 1,96 1,51 1,892 1,846 1, ,687 1,333 1,668 2,24 1,84 1, Overseas Visits to the UK from other EU countries Overseas Visits to the UK from non-eu countries in Europe 3, Overseas Visits to the UK from the EU ,5 2, 1,5 1, ,43 1,248 1,648 1,928 1,871 1,783 2,21 2,17 1,527 1,863 1,569 1, ,552 1,241 1,584 2,78 1,964 1,496 1,896 1,941 1,566 1,815 1,752 1, ,439 1,43 1,541 2,63 2,18 1,766 1,931 2,249 1,685 1,984 1,725 1, ,596 1,555 1,673 2,11 2,161 2,77 2,125 2,249 1,781 2,46 1,924 1, ,616 1,516 1,778 2,351 2,454 2,8 2,182 2,286 1,883 2,371 1,895 1, ,747 1,739 1,95 2,33 2,529 2,62 2,264 2,296 1,888 2,356 2,313 2, ,36 1,7 2,69 2,63 2,27 2,1 More: Monthly data is replaced by the more accurate Quarterly data. Long term trends showing percentage change annually by and more is available here. Pease note that different scales are used on these charts to allow differences to be identified. 15

16 s s Detailed monthly trends Global Regions (2 of 2) Overseas Visits to the UK from North America Overseas Visits to the UK from Rest of the World More: Monthly data is replaced by the more accurate Quarterly data. Long term trends showing percentage change annually by and more is available here. Pease note that different scales are used on these charts to allow differences to be identified. 16

17 Definitions EU15 - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. Note that the UK is among the 15 countries that formed the European Union prior to January 24, but due to the inbound nature of the data displayed in the IPS reference tables data for the UK is excluded. Other EU - Bulgaria, Cyprus (South), Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Note that Croatia has been included in the Other EU category since it joined in July 213, before July 213 this group was labelled as A12. EU Total EU, therefore combined EU15 and Other EU (as defined above). Rest of Europe European countries outside the EU (including Russia, Norway and Switzerland). Before July 213 Croatia was also included here, but from July 213 appears in Other EU. North America - Canada (including Greenland and St Pierre et Miquelon), USA (including Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands) Rest of World Countries outside Europe and North America (Africa, Asia, Central America, Middle East, Oceania, South America) VFR - Visiting Friends and Relatives Miscellaneous visits - includes those for short term study, to attend sports events, for personal shopping, health or religious purposes, accompanying others and many more Visit - all departing visits from overseas residents (including those who may be UK nationals but live elsewhere, excluding other nationals who have been in the UK for 12 months or longer) Spend - the amount visitors report spending in the UK during their stay 17

18 More information The Inbound research & insights section of the VisitBritain website has much more detail on long term trends, data for individual markets and UK regions Refer to the ONS website for more on IPS methodology and UK outbound travel Make sure you get all the latest figures and reports by signing-up for VisitBritain's e- newsletter 18

19 Monthly Inbound Update June 217 Footer 19