Global economic challengesimplications
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1 Global economic challengesimplications for Belarus Torbjörn Becker Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics Stockholm School of Economics torbjorn.becker@hhs.se
2 SITE and BEROC partners in Forum for Research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE) A unique network of economics research institutes in the region Stockholm Szczecin Riga Minsk Kyiv Moscow Tbilisi
3 Agenda Global outlook and challenges Russian collateral damage Belarus outlook and priorities
4 Global outlook/challenges
5 Global growth prospects
6 Growing uncertainty(?) IMF WEO Oct 2015
7 Oil price uncertainty IMF WEO Oct 2015
8 Key features of global outlook Low growth projections have been lowered further Uncertainty high for both growth and key commodity prices, including oil U.S. interest rate hike when? Health of financial systems (again ) Very significant geopolitical issues to be solved
9 Russian collateral damage
10 Russian roller-coaster mostly down 120# 110# 100# 90# 80# 70# 60# 50# 40# 30# Ruble/USD# RTSI# Oil#(Brent)# 120# 110# 100# 90# 80# 70# 60# 50# 40# 30# 20# 14,01,06# 14,02,06# 14,03,06# 14,04,06# 14,05,06# 14,06,06# 14,07,06# 14,08,06# 14,09,06# 14,10,06# 14,11,06# 14,12,06# 15,01,06# 15,02,06# 15,03,06# 15,04,06# 15,05,06# 15,06,06# 15,07,06# 15,08,06# 20#
11 Russian GDP could fall further Imports$%$change$same$quarter$last$year$ 50$ 40$ 30$ 20$ 10$ 0$!10$!20$!30$!40$!50$ GDP$ Imports$ Q1!2007$ Q3!2007$ Q1!2008$ Q3!2008$ Q1!2009$ Q3!2009$ Q1!2010$ Q3!2010$ Q1!2011$ Q3!2011$ Q1!2012$ Q3!2012$ Q1!2013$ Q3!2013$ Q1!2014$ Q3!2014$ Q1!2015$ 10$ 8$ 6$ 4$ 2$ 0$!2$!4$!6$!8$!10$ GDP$%$change$same$quarter$last$year$
12 Total Russian trade to June 2015 Share in 2014 June 2015/ June 2014 Total EU APEC CIS ROW 13 86
13 Share of CIS countries exports going to Russia 50" 45" 40" 35" 30" 25" 20" 15" 10" 5" 0" BELARUS" UZBEKISTAN" MOLDOVA" UKRAINE" ARMENIA" KYRGYZ" TAJIKISTAN" KAZAKHSTAN" AZERBAIJAN" TURKMENISTAN"
14 Currency depreciations last 12 months among CIS countries 50%# 45%# 40%# 35%# 30%# 25%# 20%# 15%# 10%# 5%# 0%# RUSSIA# UKRAINE# BELARUS# MOLDOVA# AZERBAIJAN# KAZAKHSTAN# TAJIKISTAN# TURKMENISTAN# ARMENIA# KYRGYZ# UZBEKISTAN#
15 Remittances from Russia to CIS countries Remi%ances*as*%*of*GDP*2014* 45" 40" 35" 30" 25" 20" 15" 10" 5" 0" TAJIKISTAN" KYRGYZ"REPUBLIC" MOLDOVA" ARMENIA" UZBEKISTAN" UKRAINE" AZERBAIJAN" BELARUS" KAZAKHSTAN" TURKMENISTAN"
16 Remittances from workers in Russia to CIS countries, recent trends 170# %"of"same"quarter"previous"year" 150# 130# 110# 90# 70# 50# 30# Q1#2012# Q2#2012# Q3#2012# Q4#2012# Q1#2013# Q2#2013# Q3#2013# Q4#2013# Q1#2014# Q2#2014# Q3#2014# Q4#2014# Q1#2015# AZERBAIJAN,#REPUBLIC#OF# ARMENIA,#REPUBLIC#OF# BELARUS# KAZAKHSTAN# KYRGYZ#REPUBLIC# MOLDOVA# TAJIKISTAN# TURKMENISTAN# UZBEKISTAN# UKRAINE# Total#
17 CIS outlook (IMF WEO Oct 2015)
18 Belarus outlook and priorities
19 Belarus options to generate growth Pray for better external conditions not very promising! Fiscal policy limited funding sources Monetary policy not much space AND avoid costly crises Structural reforms vital! but don t replace public monopolies with private ones => liberalized markets/prices and competition policies in place when privatizing
20 Cost of shocks in EM (% of GDP) Financial and macroeconomic shocks Currency crisis Banking crisis Debt crisis Sudden stop in capital flows Country specific external shocks Terms of trade shock Disaster Sociopolitical War Political shock Global shocks Global interest rate hike Oil price hike (Becker and Mauro 2006) => AVOID CRISES! 36 27
21 Good news or sudden stop?
22 Basics of sudden stop crises Sudden stop crisis very harmful for economies, cost over 50% of GDP for EM Y=C+I+G+X-M Dynamics, multipliers CA=FDI+dEquity+dDebt+dReserves CA deficit today can mean higher interest payments tomorrow Without funding, no CA deficit CA improving often means less imports Multipliers in reverse=>output collapse External funding needed!
23 Need for structural reforms
24 EBRD indicators 1999 Compe11on#Policy# Trade#&#Forex#system# Poland# Belarus# Price#liberalisa1on# Governance#and# enterprise#restructuring# Small#scale#priva1sa1on# Large#scale#priva1sa1on# 0.0# 2.0# 4.0#
25 EBRD indicators 2014 Compe11on#Policy# Trade#&#Forex#system# Poland# Belarus# Price#liberalisa1on# Governance#and# enterprise#restructuring# Small#scale#priva1sa1on# Large#scale#priva1sa1on# 0.0# 2.0# 4.0#
26 GDP per capita 2014 PPP" USD" Poland" Belarus" 0" 5,000" 10,000" 15,000" 20,000" 25,000" 30,000"
27 Privatization What are the real objectives? Improving fiscal position in short run ok but long-term it has to be about efficiency, growth and welfare
28 In sum what should be done Avoid more costly crises by good macro and financial management Get external funding to avoid sudden stop crisis Time to implement structural reforms!!! BUT Don t replace public monopolies with private ones => liberalized markets/prices and competition policies should be in place when privatizing
29 Thanks! Torbjörn Becker Director, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics Stockholm School of Economics torbjorn.becker@hhs.se
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