The catching up process in CESEE countries
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1 The catching up process in CESEE countries Gertude Tumpel-Gugerell Institutional quality and sustainable economic convergence 7th ECB conference on central, eastern and south eastern European (CESEE) countries Thursday, 5 October 2017 European Central Bank 1
2 Successfull convergence and its foundations in the past Short outlook for future catching up Problem that need to be adressed Opportunities that need to be seized 2
3 Successfull convergence and its foundations in the past Short outlook for future catching up Problem that need to be adressed Opportunities that need to be seized 3
4 Successfull convergence of CESEE Convergence of GDP per capita at PPP, in % of EA BA AL RS MK ME BG RO HR LV HU PL EE LT SK SI CZ GR PT CY ES IT MT FI FR UK BE DK AT DE SE NL IE LU 2000 Change 2016 Source: IMF. 4
5 promoted by macro-stabilization N ominal convergence Inflation regional averages, in % year-on-year Policy rates regional averages, in % year-on-year Central Europe Baltics BG, RO Western Balkans EA19 Central Europe Baltics BG, RO Western Balkans EA19 Source: Eurostat, Bloomberg, WIIW. 5
6 deeper economic integration FDI by economic sector in % of GDP, 2015 of latest available SI LT PL RO BA AL MK SK LV EE CZ HU BG Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing Mining, quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas, water supply Construction Transport, storage, communication Finance Other services Other Source: WIIW. 6
7 deeper economic integration (cont.) Global value chains and comparative advantage Participation in global value chains in 2014, index from0 (worst) to 100 (best) 70.0 Revealed comparative advantage in medium high-tech goods in 2014, values above 1 indicate a comparative advantage HR RO EA19 LV PL LT BG SI EE CZ SK HU 0.0 LV BG EE HR LT EA19 PL RO SI SK CZ HU Source: ECB COMPNET. 7
8 and a sound fundament of human capital Population aged having completed tertiary education in % of total RO HU MK CZ BG HR SK EE LV SI PL LT IT D E MT PT AT FI GR ES FR BE N L D K UK SE LU IE CY 2009 Change 2016 Source: European innovationscorebord. 8
9 and institutional development Governance indicators Estimate of governance (ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance) BA RS- MK AL RS ME BG RO HR HU SK PL LV SI CZ LT EE GR IT ES CY MT FR PT BE AT IE UK DE DK NL LU SE FI KM 2000 Change 2016 Source: World Bank. 9
10 Successfull convergence and its foundations in the past Short outlook for future catching up Problem that need to be adressed Opportunities that need to be seized 10
11 Crisis only put a temporary brake on convergence Convergence Between CESEE EU Member States and the Euro Area Historic GDP growth differential Year-on-year change in % 5.0 Simulated convergence paths per capita GDP at PPP in % of Euro area (EA-12) IMF forecast Historic convergence process IMF forecast Simulation 1 percentage point growth differential 2 percentage points 3 percentage points Sources: OeNB, IMF. 11
12 Successfull convergence and its foundations in the past Short outlook for future catching up Problem that need to be adressed Opportunities that need to be seized 12
13 Institutional gaps can explain differing country paths to a certain extent Control of corruption Estimate of governance (ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance) BA RS- KM AL RS MK BG ME RO HU HR SK LV CZ LT PL SI EE GR IT ES MT CY PT FR AT BE IE DE UK NL LU SE DK FI 2000 Change 2016 Source: World Bank. 13
14 Institutional gaps can explain differing country paths to a certain extent (cont.) Government effectiveness Estimate of governance (ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance) RS- KM BA RO AL RS MK ME BG HU HR PL SK LV CZ LT EE SI GR IT MT CY ES PT BE IE FR AT UK LU DE SE NL FI DK 2000 Change 2016 Source: World Bank. 14
15 Wide variation in infrastructure quality Source: IMF Article IV Consultation of Serbia,
16 Source: IMF Article IV Consultation of Serbia,
17 Emigration is still a topic, especially in countries with higher gaps in income and institutional development Average migration intentions by country Share of individuals with theintention to emigrate (in %) Albania FYR Macedonia Bulgaria Total Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Poland Serbia Croatia Czech Republic Romania Source: OeNB Euro Survey (2014). 17
18 Successfull convergence and its foundations in the past Short outlook for future catching up Problem that need to be adressed Opportunities that need to be seized 18
19 Way forward: Innovation R&D spending in the public sector in % of GDP MK BG RO HU HR LV SI PL RS LT EE SK CZ CY IE MT IT UK ES GR LU PT BE FR AT N L D E FI SE D K 2009 Change 2016 Source: European innovationscorebord. 19
20 Way forward: Innovation (cont.) R&D spending in the private sector in % of GDP MK LV RO LT RS SK HR PL EE BG HU CZ SI CY GR MT PT ES LU IT IE NL UK FR BE DK FI DE AT SE 2009 Change 2016 Source: European innovationscorebord. 20
21 Way forward: Climbing up the technology ladder Exports of medium and high technology products in % of total exports BG LT LV HR RS EE PL RO SI MK CZ SK HU GR PT CY FI ES DK NL BE IT LU IE SE UK MT AT FR DE 2009 Change 2016 Source: European innovationscorebord. 21
22 Way forward: Green economy Energy efficiency Gross inland consumption of energy divided by GDP (in kg of oil equivalent per EUR) SI HR LT LV SK AL RO PL HU CZ ME MK EE BG RS RS- KM IE DK LU MT UK IT AT SE DE ES NL FR CY GR PT BE FI 2000 Change 2015 Source: Eurostat. 22
23 Back-up slides: Remittances 23
24 Inflowsto CESEE Remittances per capita, EU CESEE countries current US$ 600 Inflows of remittances to CESEE, by destination economy current US$, billion Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Macedonia, FYR Poland Romania Serbia Source: WDI, World Bank. 24
25 Main remittance sending countries Sending regions of remittances Sharein total remittance inflows 100% Sending countries of remittances: Top-10 remittance sending countries to CESEE Shares in total amount that come from top 10 countries 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Albania Bosnia & H. Bulgar ia Cr oatia Czech Rep. Hungary Macedonia Poland Romania Serbia 0% Albania Bosnia & H. Bulgaria Croatia Czech Rep. Hungary Macedonia Poland Romania Serbia EA19 non-ea EU CIS non-eu, non-cis Europe US, Canada, Austr alia, NZ, South Africa Other Germany United States United Kingdom Italy Austria Canada Spain Turkey Serbia Croatia Source: Bilateral Remittance Matrix 2015 (version Oct. 2016), World Bank. 25
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