Prosperity or death by a thousand cuts?

Transcription

1 Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? Fifty years f subnatinal ppulatin trends in Canada and the United States Fazley Siddiq Prfessr, Schl f Public Administratin, Dalhusie University; Fellw, Jhn F. Kennedy Schl f Gvernment, Harvard University; and Fulbright Visiting Research Chair in Canada-U.S. Relatins, Wilsn Center Jrdan Fischer Schlar Intern, Wdrw Wilsn Internatinal Center fr Schlars Wednesday, May 1, 2013 ~ 10:00 a.m. 11:30 a.m. Wdrw Wilsn Internatinal Center fr Schlars

2 Mtivatin Backgrund and Literature Canadian Trends Trends in the United States Outline Definitins: Canada Definitins: United States Cmparisn f Subnatinal Jurisdictins Data Surces Data Cnstraints Summary f Trends Increasing metrplitan ppulatins Expanding metrplitan bundaries Cmparisn f Trends Highlights Plicy Implicatins Summary and Cnclusin Trends Key Findings Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts?

3 Mtivatin Migratin patterns influence ecnmic well-being in mature ecnmies such as Canada and the U.S. Rapidly changing ppulatin distributins warrant an explanatin Metrplitan areas Accunt fr higher share f ppulatin, even higher share f GDP Ecnmic engines High levels f intellectual, plitical and scial activity Nn-metrplitan areas Shrinking ppulatin, shrinking cntributin t GDP and plitics Declining ecnmies Brain drain Analyze reasns behind demgraphic vlatility Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts?

4 Backgrund and Literature: General Trends in Canada Immigratin: Each prvince requires additinal migrants t sustain its ppulatin Mre deaths than births Immigratin flws are highly cncentrated gegraphically, in large metrplitan areas Only 4% f new immigrants chse t live in rural areas (Malenfant et al, 2007) 75% f immigrants settle in Trnt, Mntreal r Vancuver (Slack et al, 2003; Wulff and Vineberg, 2008) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 2

5 Backgrund and Literature: General Trends in Canada cnt. Interprvincial migratin: Beneficial t natinal ecnmic perfrmance Increases ecnmic inequalities between prvinces, including skills disparities Increasing migratin f skilled wrkers frm Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan t Ontari, Alberta, British Clmbia (Statistics Canada) Mst mbile cmpnent f the ppulatin is the educated yuth Zer-sum demgraphic game (Plese & Shearmur, 2006) Suburbanizatin: increasing trend Lwer husing prices, imprved quality f life Prximity t metrplitan center (Malenfant, 2007) Strng central business districts lead t lwer levels f suburbanizatin (Bunting and Filin, 2001) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 3

6 Backgrund and Literature: Ecnmic Trends in Canada Relative decline in nn-metrplitan areas Aging ppulatins Remte/islated lcatins and ecnmies Small ppulatins and market size (Slack, Burne & Gertler, 2003b) Brain drain Mst migrants mtivated by ecnmic/labr pprtunities (Bernard, Finny and St-Jean, 2008) Mst were yung adults Individuals left prvinces with pr lcal labr market perfrmance fr prvinces with better labr market prspects Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 4

7 Backgrund and Literature: Reginal Vlatility in the United States Mvement t the Suth and West In 1900, 62% f the U.S. ppulatin lived in the Nrtheast r Midwest By 2000, the trend was reversed: 58% lived in the Suth r West (US Census Bureau, 2001) Rapidly grwing metrplitan areas in Suth and West Las Vegas, Seattle, Austin, Miami Majrity f interstate migrants between 1965 and 1990 resettled in new and grwing metrplitan areas, rather than mre established nes (Ellit & Perry, 1996) Reginal ecnmic specializatin Reginal ecnmic cntractin Histrical reasns ecnmic grwth/decline is nt cntagius Decline in Midwest due t histrical clustering f industry, lack f reginal ecnmic diversificatin (Beesn and Tannery, 2004) Reginal ppulatin lss, gains in anther regin Lsses in Nrtheast/Midwest, gains in Suth/West Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 5

8 Backgrund and Literature: General Trends in the United States Suburbanizatin Lwer husing prices, imprved quality f life, but prximity t metr center Majrity f all racial grups nw live in suburbs (Brkings Institutin, 2010) Age-related trends Mst migrants were mtivated by ecnmic pprtunities Mst were yung adults Individuals leaving states with pr lcal labr market perfrmance fr states with better labr market prspects (Newbld, 2011) Yung adults metrplitan centers Wrking-age suburbs Retirees fllw quality f life (Snwbelt sunbelt) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 6

9 Backgrund and Literature: General Trends in the United States cnt. Changing nature f U.S. metr areas 7 categries: Grwth Educatin Diversity Examples Next Frntier high high high Seattle, WA New Heartland high high lw Des Mines, IO Diverse Giant lw high high NYC, LA Brder Grwth high lw high Orland, San Antni Mid-Sized Magnet high lw lw Oklahma City, OK Skilled Anchrs lw high lw Bstn, MA Industrial Cres lw lw lw Detrit, MI Surce: Brkings, 2010 Grwing disparity in educatin levels As in Canada, educated migrants tend t cluster, increasing disparity Racial disparity in educatin (Mst t least: Asian, White, Black, Latin) (Brkings, 2010) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 7

10 Definitins: Canada Cmparisn f gegraphic building blcks (Statistics Canada, 2011): Metr Nn-metr Census Metrplitan Area A large area, ecnmically and scially integrated with adjacent urban and rural areas, having a ppulatin f at least 100,000 f which at least 50,000 live in the urban cre. Each CMA has ne r mre census subdivisins (CSDs) At least 50 percent f the emplyed labur frce living in the CSD wrks in the urbanized cre; r at least 25 percent f the emplyed labur frce wrking in the CSD lives in the urbanized cre Generally speaking, CMAs cnsist f ne r mre municipalities situated arund a majr urban cre Census Agglmeratin Must have an urban cre ppulatin f at least 10,000, belw which it is retired Frmed by ne r mre adjacent municipalities centred n a large urban area (urban cre) T be included in a CA, ther adjacent municipalities must have a high degree f integratin with the central urban area, as measured by cmmuting flws Metrplitan Influence Zne A census subdivisin that lies utside CMAs and CAs, but is influenced by them Categry assigned t a municipal unit nt included in either a CMA r a CA Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 8

11 Definitins: United States Cmparisn f gegraphic building blcks (US Census Bureau, 2010): A Cre Based Statistical Area (CBSA) An area assciated with at least ne cre whse ppulatin is at least 10,000 Als has adjacent territry that is linked t the cre by cmmuting ties, and scial and ecnmic integratin Tw categries f CBSAs: Metrplitan Statistical Areas, Micrplitan Statistical Areas. Metr Nn-metr Metrplitan Statistical Area (CBSA) Cnsists f at least ne urban area with a ppulatin f at least 50,000 Has a central cunty (r cunties) as well as utlying cunties, cnnected t the urban cre thrugh scial and ecnmic integratin as measured thrugh cmmuting Micrplitan Statistical Area (CBSA) Has at least ne urban area (ften called an urban cluster) with a ppulatin f at least 10,000, but less than 50,000 Cnsists f a central cunty (r cunties) cntaining the cre as well as utlying areas, which are cnnected t the urban area thrugh scial and ecnmic integratin as measured thrugh cmmuting Outside Cre Based Statistical Areas Cunties that d nt qualify fr inclusin either as Metrplitan r Micrplitan Statistical Areas Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 9

12 Cmparisn f Subnatinal Jurisdictins Canada United States Regins Regins Prvinces States CMA/CA/ MIZ Census Divisins Metrplitan/Micrplitan/ Outside CBSA Census Subdivisins Cunties NECTAs New England City and Twn Area Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 10

13 Cmparisn f Subnatinal Jurisdictins cnt. Cmparability Discrepancies in the unit f analysis Census definitins vary ver time and acrss the tw cuntries Varying administrative bundaries Cntinuity and size f the building blcks differ Changing measures used t determine cmmuter sheds Similarities in U.S. and Canadian definitins f metrplitan area Large, ppulatin-dense cre f at least 50,000 Ttal ppulatin (including hinterlands) f 100,000 Surrunding cmmunities with relatively high ppulatin densities that are clsely linked t the cre by cmmuting Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 11

14 Cmparisn f Subnatinal Jurisdictins cnt. Divisin US Canada Difference US: Canada Rati Ppulatin (2010 UU & 2011 CCC ) 308,745,538 33,476, ,268,850 9:1 Cunties UU / Census Divisins CCC 3, ,849 11:1 Metrplitan UU / CMA CCC :1 Micrplitan UU / CA CCC :1 CSD UU / CSD CCC 36,363 5,253 31,110 7:1 Rati f cunties t census divisins is aligned with the rati f metrplitan areas t census metrplitan areas (similar units f measure) Rati f census agglmeratins t micrplitan areas was relatively lwer (terms are nt as well matched) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 12

15 Data Surces Canada Statistics Canada Censuses: 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 United States US Census Bureau Censuses: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 13

16 Data Cnstraints Data cnstraints Peridic changes in the cmpsitin f the metrplitan areas Year Metrplitan Area Cmpnents Ppulatin 1960 Miami Dade Cunty 935, Miami Dade Cunty 1,267, Miami-Frt Lauderdale 1990 Miami-Frt Lauderdale 2000 Miami-Frt Lauderdale 2010 Miami-Frt Lauderdale- Pmpan Beach Dade Cunty, Brward Cunty Miami-Dade Cunty, Brward Cunty Miami-Dade Cunty, Brward Cunty Miami-Dade Cunty, Brward Cunty, Palm Beach Cunty 2,643,766 3,192,582 3,876,380 5,564,635 Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 14

17 Data Cnstraints Changing gegraphical bundaries between 1961 and 2011 Land area grwth rate (%) Canada - large metrs Mntréal, QC Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC Vancuver, BC Trnt, ON Edmntn, AB ,761 Calgary, AB ,166 Nn-CMAs All CMAs Ttal Canada Every majr metrplitan area experienced changing bundaries Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 15

18 Summary f Trends: Increasing Canadian Metrplitan Ppulatins Metrplitan areas (ppulatin > 1,000,000) are a large and grwing prprtin f natinal ppulatins 80 Percent f Canadian ppulatin Large Canadian Metr Areas Other Canadian Metr Areas Ttal Canadian Metr Areas Nnmetrplitan Canada Large Canadian Metr Areas Other Canadian Metr Areas Ttal Canadian Metr Areas Nnmetrplitan Canada Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 16

19 Summary f Trends: Increasing U.S. Metrplitan Ppulatins Metrplitan areas (ppulatin > 1,000,000) are a large and grwing prprtin f natinal ppulatins 90 Percent f U.S. ppulatin Large U.S. Metr Areas Other U.S. Metr Areas Ttal U.S. Metr Areas Nnmetrplitan U.S Large U.S. Metr Areas Other U.S. Metr Areas Ttal U.S. Metr Areas Nnmetrplitan U.S Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 17

20 The aggregate metrplitan land area in Canada grew 423% between 1961 and 2011 Spiked 172 percent in just ten years between 1961 and 1971 (Statistics Canada, 1962, 1972, 1982, 1992, 2002, 2012) Generally mre cmpact than in the U.S. Aggregate metrplitan land area increased 194% in the U.S. between 1960 and 2010 Summary f Trends: Expanding Metrplitan Bundaries 216% increase in the Suth 213% increase in the Midwest Physical bundaries barely changed between 1980 and 1990, every ther decade studied saw at least a 20% increase (US Census Bureau, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 18

21 Suburbanizatin in Canada Expanding gegraphical bundaries, decreasing ppulatin density land area (sq. mi) ppulatin density (residents/sq. mi) land area (sq. mi) ppulatin density (residents/sq. mi) Mntréal, QC 520 4,058 1,644 2,326 Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC 329 1,308 2, Vancuver, BC 499 1,582 1,113 2,079 Trnt, ON 799 2,282 2,280 2,448 Edmntn, AB 196 1,726 3, Calgary, AB 156 1,791 1, Canada - large metrs 2,499 2,309 13,077 1,172 Nn-CMAs 3,555, ,425,741 3 All CMAs 5,068 1,611 35, Ttal Canada 3,560, ,461, Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts?. Siddiq and J. Fischer 19

22 Cmparisn f Trends: Canada and the United States Gegraphic differences Canada has mre land but much less temperate land than the U.S. 77% f Canadian land area is Arctic r Sub-Arctic (Janelle, Warf, & Hansen, 2004) Extremely sparse ppulatin in Canada s harsh nrthern territries 75% f Canadian ppulatin lives within 100 miles f U.S. brder (Natinal Gegraphic, n.d.) Sunbelt in the U.S. Attracts migrants with warm weather Linguistic divide in Canada Francphne immigrants settle in Quebec, ther immigrants settle predminantly in Ontari, Alberta and British Clumbia (Statistics Canada, 2006) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 20

23 Cmparisn f Trends: Canada and the United States cnt. Demgraphic similarities Advanced ecnmies reliant n human capital fr grwth Cre-periphery relatinships US cre: casts Canadian cre: west/central metr areas (Mntreal, Trnt, Calgary, Vancuver) Immigrant gateway cities US: NYC, LA, Miami, San Francisc, etc. Canada: Mntreal, Trnt, Calgary, Vancuver Age-dependent migratin patterns Educated yuth migrate t metrplitan areas Retired ppulatins seek higher quality f life Suburbanizatin patterns Seeking higher quality f life, cnvenience Increases metrplitan land area and ppulatin Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 21

24 Highlights Changing makeup f Canadian and U.S. scieties 45% Metrplitan 31% 55% ppulatin 69% Metrplitan ppulatin 37% 63% Metrplitan ppulatin 17% 83% Metrplitan ppulatin Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 22

25 Highlights cnt. Strng metrplitan grwth Accunted fr disprprtinately high percentage f natinal emplyment, incme, prductin, exprts, and technlgy develpment Canadian metr grwth in bth ld and new metrplitan areas Trnt, ON: 206% grwth Edmntn, AB: 244% grwth U.S. metr grwth primarily in new metrplitan areas Phenix, AZ: 532% grwth New Yrk City, NY: 77% grwth Unchecked metrplitan grwth is prblematic San Bernardin cunty: 304% grwth, based n husing bubble San Bernardin city: bankrupt in 2012 Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 23

26 Highlights cnt. Declining nn-metrplitan areas Canadian nn-metrplitan ppulatin: 0% grwth U.S. nn-metrplitan ppulatin: 24% decline Official municipal agglmeratins Ontari, Quebec, Nva Sctia Unfficial cllabratin Pennsylvania, Michigan Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 24

27 Highlights cnt. Prsperity Edmntn, AB 244% grwth Calgary, AB 335% grwth Orland, FL 570% grwth Las Vegas, NV 1436% grwth Death by a Thusand Cuts Guysbrugh, NS 39% cntractin Stikine, BC 45% cntractin Henry Cunty, OH 63% cntractin McDwell Cunty, WV 69% cntractin Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 25

28 Plicy Implicatins Metrplitanizatin is generally psitive Bsts natinal ecnmy (effective allcatin f resurces) Metrplitan areas accunt fr prprtinately mre natinal incme, utput, emplyment, exprts, and innvatin (Weiss, 2006; Weiss, 2001) Over 95% f patents were filed in metrplitan areas, (US Patent and Trademark Office, Patent Technlgy and Mnitring Team, 2013) Municipal amalgamatins Official (Nva Sctia, Ontari, Quebec) Cllabratin (Pennsylvania, Michigan) Gvernment subsidies t ease rural wes Medical prfessinals Lawyers (Suth Dakta) Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 26

29 Summary and Cnclusin: Canada and the United States Share a similar histry, demcratic institutins, and level f develpment High level f scial and ecnmic develpment Lw natural ppulatin grwth, high levels f immigratin Divided in imprtant aspects f gegraphy/climate, ppulatin size, and plitics Canadian harsh nrthern climate leads residents t cluster in the suth, in spite f much larger ttal land area U.S. ppulatin is larger and mre diverse Canadian gvernment is mre federalist, less centralized Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 27

30 Summary and Cnclusin: Trends Increasing metrplitan ppulatin Increasing metrplitan land area Suburbanizatin Decreasing metrplitan ppulatin density, despite increasing metrplitan ppulatin Emergence f rapidly grwing metrplitan areas Las Vegas, Seattle, Calgary Majrity f migrants resettled in newer metrplitan areas, rather than lngestablished nes, between 1965 and 1990 (Ellit & Perry, 1996) Declining nn-metrplitan areas Ppulatin lss (US), stagnatin (Canada) Lss f educated yuth and prfessinals Ppulatin Percent f Ttal Ppulatin Percent f Ttal Canada 8,163, ,123, United States 112,885, ,317, Prsperity r death by a thusand cuts? 28