Well-being in Interim findings. September Eurobarometer Qualitative Studies. Qualitative study TNS Qual+

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1 Eurbarmeter Qualitative Studies Well-being in 2030 Interim findings Eurpean Cmmissin Well-being in 2030 Interim findings September 2011 Qualitative study TNS Qual+ This dcument des nt represent the pint f view f the Eurpean Cmmissin. The interpretatins and pinins cntained in it are slely thse f the authrs. 1

2 Eurbarmeter Qualitative studies Well-being in 2030 Cnducted by TNS Qual+ at the request f the Eurpean Cmmissin, Directrate-General fr Emplyment and c-rdinated by Directrate- General fr Cmmunicatin, Research and Speechwriting Unit 2

3 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ways that sciety will be better Ways that sciety will be wrse Main areas f cncern Key drivers f change Actins Summary OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY Backgrund and bjectives Methdlgy and sampling Hpes and fears fr sciety Main differences between nw and Ways in which sciety will be better Ways in which sciety will be wrse Summary f scietal changes Specific develpments Main areas f cncern Key drivers f change Key drivers acrss member states Factrs affecting the three main areas f cncern Other Actins wanted Immigratin: Crime: Scial Security System/Pensins: Scial Netwrking: Summary - Other Actins

4 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This reprt is based n qualitative research cnducted in January 2011 in eight member states Estnia, Germany, Greece, France, Pland, Rmania, Sweden and the UK. Three discussin grups were cnducted in each cuntry, stratified by different sci-ecnmic and age grups, and by urban and rural areas. The verall aim f the research was t understand hw peple think sciety will change ver the next 20 years; what are their hpes and fears fr the future; what factrs will play a rle in shaping sciety and what actins they think need t ccur in rder t create the sciety they wuld like. The majr differences seen between nw and 2030 are that cmmunicatin and health are seen as likely t imprve but peple are pessimistic abut living standards and publicly funded services. Climate change and the ecnmy are the areas abut which peple feel least certainty. Generally it s a pessimistic view f the future. Sme member states tend t be mre ptimistic than thers; Sweden, Germany, Estnia are the mst ptimistic; France and (t a lesser extent) Pland are mre neutral; UK, Greece and Rmania are the least ptimistic. 1.1 Ways that sciety will be better There is a widespread belief that imprvements in medicine and technlgy will bth be the key cntributrs t imprvements in sciety in Eurpe in the future; specifically they will imprve everyday lives in terms f health, cmmunicatin and energy alternatives. The Western member states in particular see an increase in peple s sense f persnal respnsibility while thse in the East anticipate imprvements in pprtunities fr educatin, wrk and mbility. The impact f these imprvements are expected t be lnger life, imprved health, easier access t educatin, better wrk pprtunities, an increase in living standards, the emergence f energy alternatives t fssil fuels and perhaps a mre respnsible and caring sciety. 1.2 Ways that sciety will be wrse The area that peple feel is mst likely t deterirate mst in the future is the envirnment. Climate change is a unifying issue - peple in Eurpe, acrss all member states, fear fr the future n this key issue and expect things t deterirate. Fr mst ther areas, such as standard f living and future jb pprtunities, pinins are less unifrm - there are as many wh feel that there will be imprvements as thse wh think things will get wrse. Expectatins appear t largely be driven by the current state f each Member State s ecnmy. 4

5 There are cnsiderable differences in what aspects f sciety are anticipated t get wrse accrding t where peple live in particular in relatin t Western Member States cmpared with Eastern Member States. Three areas f cncern which are the mst cmmnly talked f, apart frm the envirnment and the ecnmy, are: The likely widening wealth gap Increased islatin due t advancement in cmmunicatin technlgy and use f cmputers: Technlgy taking away jbs The impact f these issues n sciety is described in many ways - a mre divided sciety with scial unrest, mre difficulties fr the vulnerable, mre superficial human cntact, weakening natinal identity, issues with emplyment and husing due t cntinued ppulatin grwth, the pressure f an ageing ppulatin n pensins, scial and health systems. The main effects f climate change are generally perceived in terms f extreme weather and natural disasters. 1.3 Main areas f cncern There is cnsiderable disparity between the member states in the emphasis given t the different areas f cncern. Climate change and envirnmental issues have the mst widespread cncern. Fur ut f the eight Member States select this as the area that mst cncerns them. Health is tp f the agenda fr tw member states, as is the standard f living fr tw thers with educatin and emplyment being the ther main issues With less widespread imprtance but still f majr cncern - are scial security and welfare, technlgical develpment, gvernment and plitics but nne f these were chsen as the mst imprtant area t any individual Member State. Climate change is mentined spntaneusly in all cuntries and citizens in Germany and France in particular were cncerned abut it. Only in Greece and Sweden is there any ptimism abut it. Peple envisage prblems but are nt yet able t talk knwledgably abut likely impacts. Health services are an area where peple tend t be mre ptimistic. Such services are seen as having a huge impact n well being. Peple are psitive abut the impact f medical advances but are cncerned abut the state s ability t pay fr imprvements in medical treatment. The cst f healthcare fr the elderly is a particular cncern. Educatin is high n peple s agenda but specific cncerns vary a great deal accrding by member state, frm the cst f materials in sme Eastern Member States t the cntent f the curriculum in Sweden and Germany. Maintaining universal access t gd educatin and health services is a majr cncern fr the future. Plitics and gvernment are less relevant issues. Hwever there is sme cncern abut crruptin in sme Eastern member states and a strng desire fr change. 5

6 There is als ambivalence in sme cuntries abut plicy decided at the EU rather than natinal level, and the resulting lack f natinal svereignty. Thse in Eastern Eurpe are mre ptimistic abut imprvements in public services than thers; in sme Western member states there is an expectatin f increased pressure n public services due t reduced spending. There is widespread cncern abut scial services and welfare amngst all cuntries, with thse in the Eastern member states pessimistic despite being cnfident in public services verall. Relatinships between different grups in sciety are mainly seen in ethnic and religius terms and there are mixed views as t what the future hlds; as many states see a mve t increasing integratin as see a plarisatin and prspect f scial unrest. Views f equality and discriminatin were nt generally majr areas f cncern. 1.4 Key drivers f change The state f the ecnmy and ability f each member state s gvernment t manage it, are seen as the majr factrs which will affect the future. Other factrs which are seen as likely t effect change included pensins and the ageing ppulatin, immigratin, c-rdinated actin n climate change between natins, the need t supprt the pr and ensure wider pprtunities (in life, in educatin and jbs, in access t healthcare) t prevent a widening wealth gap. Respnsibility fr dealing with these issues is seen as belnging t the state - t fund research, supprt new industry and jbs, cntrl the media and in sme cases, imprve legislatin. Hwever there is als an acknwledgement and perceived need fr this respnsibility t be shared - fr peple t take mre persnal respnsibility fr their actins acrss a wide spectrum f activity (health, climate change, plitical invlvement). 1.5 Actins Actins fr tackling cncerns fr the future centre arund the three main areas f cncern the envirnment and climate change, health and health care, educatin and jbs. There is widespread supprt fr the idea f a crdinated apprach t tackling climate change, invlving negtiatin between natins at bth Eurpean and glbal level. While peple feel that gvernments must take a lead n this (e.g. subsidising research int alternative energy surces, encuraging gd practice and cnservatin f energy in business, prviding technlgy advice t thers utside their wn cuntry, re-frestatin, public infrmatin campaign), they are als very aware f their wn respnsibilities citing such persnal actins as recycling and using public transprt. Cntinued state funding f health and educatin services is seen as essential t safeguard the future. This includes the cntinued spnsrship f health research and als t maintain the prvisin f health care and educatin t all. While citizens in Western member states tend t talk in mre abstract and mre ethical terms, thse in Eastern cuntries are mre fcused n lgistics and infrastructure (e.g. the prvisin f educatinal materials). 6

7 1.6 Summary Citizens acrss the member states are able t think abut the future in wider scietal terms, nt just abut themselves and their wn lives althugh their cncerns fr the future ften reflect their wn life stage and persnal pririties. Few are sure abut what the future hlds and while mst are pessimistic abut sme areas, they remain ptimistic in thers. Natinality had much mre impact n perceptins f the future than ther demgraphic factrs such as age and attitudes ften seemed t be largely related t the health f the natinal ecnmy. There are sme differences between high and lw incme and rural and urban, but these related mre t specific actins rather than the underlying cncerns which were generally shared. There is a sense that peple wish fr things t be better, and that this is largely the respnsibility f gvernments which need t act with sciety s benefit at their heart, fr funding t be maintained and ideally increased. There is als an acknwledgement f individual accuntability fr the shape f the future, and fr a wider change in attitudes and behaviurs. Generally, they lk t their wn natinal gvernment fr leadership, but there is a feeling that industry, the media and thers als play a rle and that the EU needs t be invlved in setting the agenda fr the future, mst imprtantly n the climate change issue. Peple feel relatively pwerless in determining hw sciety will change ver the next twenty years. They d nt take sciety s well-being fr granted. Indeed there is a realisatin that sciety has t change if it is t be the sciety they want in the future and that they as citizens must change with it. 7

8 2 OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY 2.1 Backgrund and bjectives There is increasing interest amngst plicy makers in the quality f life and wellbeing f citizens and hw plicies can enhance these in the lng term. This is reflected in initiatives such as the Eurpean Cmmissin cmmunicatin f 20 August 2009, 'GDP and Beynd' r the reprt by the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitussy Cmmissin n the Measurement f Ecnmic Perfrmance and Scial Prgress, presented in September The Cmmissin als supprts the initiative Well-being 2030 which seeks t investigate the majr trends and develpments that culd influence Eurpe s plicy ptins fr imprving citizen well-being by the year In this cntext, research was required t understand citizens hpes and fears fr the lnger-term future, what challenges they perceive will face sciety, what chices they wuld make amng different, realistic ptins t address sme f these issues and what pssibilities there are fr maximizing well-being in the lng run. This research shuld help Eurpean plicy makers design lnger-term visins, taking int accunt the views and cncerns f citizens. The bjectives fr the research are bradly summarized as fllws, t: Explre citizens fears and hpes fr the future (2030 and the future in general) Understand what kind f sciety Eurpean citizens want Investigate citizen s perceptins f the challenges facing sciety Explre the chices they wuld make with regard t specific trade-ffs / scenaris. This reprt cncentrates n the first three f these pints. A secnd stage f research will reprt n answers t the final area, explring specific chices. 2.2 Methdlgy and sampling Qualitative research (discussin grups with citizens acrss 8 member states in Eurpe) was the mst apprpriate methdlgical design fr this study. Asking citizens t think abut the future is difficult especially when the time frame is as lng as 20 years. Peple tend nt t think this far ahead, and if they d it tends t be purely in terms f changes in their wn life stage e.g. children, career, retirement. It was necessary t guide respndents t think f the bigger picture as the research was nt fcused n the cncept f well-being at a persnal and emtinal level, but rather n the macr-level determinants f well-being. Understanding hw, r if, citizens perceive the impact f wider scial and ther plicies n their wn sense f well-being, was a key bjective f the research d citizens struggle t relate their subjective state t the wider cntext, r is the interdependence between key aspects f well-being (health, standard f living, emplyment) and brader sciety clearly understd? 8

9 This reprt cvers the first stage f the research cnducted at the end f January The secnd stage with the same participants, recnvening the fcus grups, will fllw in March/ April T recnvene the grups means that the same respndents wh take part in the first grup als take part in the secnd grup. This is a valuable apprach in several ways: Findings and ideas discussed at the first sessin can be develped and presented back t the grup fr discussin Respndents can be given exercises t cmplete between stages and als encuraged t discuss the tpic with family and friends (acting as peer researchers). Knwing that they will be cming back t discuss the tpic again helps t ensure that such cnversatins take place Having mre time t debate and cnsider the issues can lead t mre infrmed and thught thrugh respnses in the secnd sessin, smething which will be essential fr the success f this prject Fr this research, eight Member States were selected as a reasnably wideranging crss-sectin f Eurpe. These are Estnia (EE), France (FR), Germany (DE), Greece (EL), Pland (PL), Rmania (RO), Sweden (SE), and the UK. The discussin grups cvered a range f respndents stratified by: 1) Age: - Yung adults (aged 18-29) - Adults (aged 30-44) - Older peple (aged 45+) 2) Ecnmic situatin: - Lw - Medium/ High (referred t as lw r medium/high in the illustrative verbatim qutes) 3) Lcality - Urban - Rural Each grup lasted 90 minutes and between 10 and 12 participants were recruited fr each; a minimum f fur men and fur wmen. Prir t cming t the grup, all participants were asked t cmplete a shrt exercise abut hw their lives wuld be better and wrse in 20 years time. 9

10 3 Hpes and fears fr sciety 3.1 Main differences between nw and 2030 Summary Their cuntry s ecnmic situatin ften cnditins hw peple feel abut the next 20 years, psitively r negatively There are apprximately equal number f aspects that are seen as likely t imprve as decline Sme aspects (such as increased cmmunicatin) are seen t have bth benefits and drawbacks Mre cmmunicatin and better health care n the psitive side, and greater threat f natural disaster and pressure n the envirnment and living standards (mre wrrying), were cmmnly seen as likely fr the future This sectin summarises the key cncerns fr the future and the main differences acrss cuntries and grups f peple. The table belw details the majr themes emerging within the different member states. Main differences expected ver next 20 years Better health-care systems, medicines and cures Negative impacts n the envirnment Climate changes/prblems Better and increased use f alternative energy resurces; Energy crises Higher rate f glbalisatin n the internatinal scale Greater level f discrepancy between the rich and the pr Greater levels f pllutin in the future Mre jbs and pprtunities fr yung peple in the future Imprving living standards Risk f ver ppulatin Technlgy reducing human cntact & regard Mre demcracy Less jb pprtunity fr the yung Less general knwledge amng yung peple due t less reading Member State RO, PL, FR, UK RO, PL, FR RO, PL, SE RO, UK RO, FR RO, PL RO, PL RO, PL RO, PL PL, SE FR, SE FR, SE RO, SE UK RO Mre spirituality and rientatin RO 10

11 twards religin Rise in criminality Different plitical and legal systems/legislatin Ageing sciety Greater cnsumptin f GM fds Increase in religius fundamentalism Lss f Western influence in favur f emerging natins Cntinuing need t adapt and change Increased access t infrmatin via internet/technlgy Resurce shrtage (e.g. water) Increased cmmdity prices/pssible cnflict Peple lking fr mre purpse in their wrk Investment in faster and greener transprt Mre natural/lcal fd cultivatin Mre segregatin Mre envirnmental awareness Healthier natin RO, RO PL PL FR FR FR FR FR FR SE SE SE SE SE UK In sme areas there was agreement acrss the different age grups fr instance in Rmania, all mentined the likely increase in the gap between the well ff and the pr in the future and bth yung and ld talked f a likely rise in criminal behaviur. In many areas hwever, there were clear generatinal differences. In Rmania the yung were mre ptimistic abut future energy slutins and medical breakthrughs whereas the lder feared energy crises and mre racial cnflict in the future. Life will be better because we ll have a far mre advanced technlgy, mre discveries will be made. (Rmania, urban, years, male, lw incme) In bth Pland and Rmania, attitudes between rural and urban participants shwed a difference, with thse frm the cuntryside being less ptimistic than thse in urban areas. The issue f glbalisatin was als f particular cncern fr thse in Eastern EU Member States (PL, RO) many see the future as affected by this as much as by what is happening in their wn cuntry. Technlgical prgress is seen as bth psitive and negative; the psitive being new medical treatments, the negative being increased pllutin and the risk f an ageing ppulatin as the result f medical advances. In general, the expectatins were that living standards and peples lives wuld imprve (PL, RO, DE, SE), but als there was a sense that nt everyne wuld 11

12 benefit frm this imprvement, with the pr (PL, RO) nt expected t benefit as much frm future imprvements in the ecnmy and health. In sme member states (e.g. France) there was a mre pessimistic expectatin that current prblems wuld cntinue with a likely increase in cmpetitin fr resurces frm emerging cuntries: In rder t face China, India and Brazil, we will have t draw urselves tgether (France, rural, 45 +, medium/lw) Participants in France were the mst alarmed by the future in terms f verppulatin and the envirnment. Within the same cuntry there can be differences hwever, in France a minrity see increasingly high standards f water treatment and increasing awareness f eclgy as likely t stabilise envirnmental damage. Generally, peple had mixed views f hw they saw the next 20 years; many see things imprving verall, but many did nt expect imprvement. Views seemed t stem principally frm the current and recent state f thse member states ecnmies the Greeks fr instance tended t be rather negative abut the future. Even in Greece hwever, there were differences in hw grups respnded, thse wh are frm higher sci-ecnmic grups and the urban, being mre ptimistic than the rural (a pattern als seen elsewhere). The Swedes tended t be mre cheerful, envisaging higher living standards, living lnger and peple taking mre respnsibility fr fitness and health. Peple accept that hw the future is will depend n hw things prgress ver ensuing years the Swedes envisage generally a better, mre pen sciety but als wrry that ver-ppulatin and natural disasters may divide sciety and make segregatin mre likely. There were sme themes that came thrugh the current ecnmy (and recent difficulties) makes it difficult fr peple t envisage a lng-term future that is ging t be free f such prblems. In cuntries such as UK, Greece, Rmania recent ecnmic prblems make envisaging a gd future mre difficult; but there are als themes such as the likely pwer f individual citizens and a mre values-driven sciety (especially UK, SE, DE) that encurage peple t think mre psitively fr their future and that f their children. 3.2 Ways in which sciety will be better This sectin lks at the main imprvements peple see in sciety in what ways it will be better and what impact this will have n them persnally, and the difference it will make fr them. Generally, thse participating in the discussin grups were able t separate the persnal frm the scietal issues; they were able t speak f the bigger picture in terms f what was likely t happen in their lives and in sciety at large rather than slely in terms f their wn individual life (marriage, children, retirement etc). 12

13 Summary Acrss Eurpe peple envisage imprvements in medicine that will imprve health, and in technlgy that will imprve every day lives and prvide energy alternatives The ways sciety wuld change fr the better in 20 years differed between east and west The Western Member States see an increase in peple taking respnsibility fr themselves and thse in the East see imprvements in pprtunity fr wrk, mbility and educatin Main imprvements envisaged Ways sciety will be better Develpment f medicine & healthcare systems Develpment f science & technlgy Envirnmental imprvements, increased awareness Alternative energy surces Peple will help each ther mre/ mre tlerance Mre fcus n the individual Imprvements fr wrking wmen Educatin will be better/mre accessible Imprved plitics (less crruptin) Imprved ecnmy Better living standards Falling unemplyment Mre chance t g/wrk/ be educated abrad fr the yung Agriculture mre prfitable Imprved transprt infrastructure Grwth in middle class (reducing class divide) Internet access leading t mre participatin in public life Mre sexual/religius freedm Mve t mre natural fdstuffs Integratin f Eurpe Member State EE, PL, RO, DE, UK, SE EE, FR, PL, RO, UK, EL EE, PL, DE, UK, SE EE, RO EE, PL, UK DE, UK, SE, FR PL EE, FR, PL EE, RO, EL PL, RO DE, SE PL, RO EE, PL PL PL, UK PL RO RO DE DE The table abve summarises the main ways in which peple feel their lives and sciety will be better ver the next 20 years. Changes fr the gd in medicine and technlgy were mst ften the main subjects peple started talking abut. In sme f the Eastern EU Member States, hwever, the cnversatin ften started with cnsideratins f the ecnmy, and its likely imprvements. Develpments in technlgy were seen by almst all as likely t be psitive, with a mve away frm traditinal surces f pwer t renewable surces such as slar energy. 13

14 Technlgical prgress Access f the ppulatin t develped alterative resurces f energy and latest technlgical innvatin. (Rmania, urban, female, years, lw incme) New technlgies will mean imprvements in envirnmental prtectin. And that will be urgently necessary if we want t vercme the prblems f climate change and envirnmental deteriratin. (Germany, urban, 30-44, male, lw) I suspect there s a pssibility we may d away with mney there s evidence t suggest that everything can be dne n cards (UK, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) Technlgy will guarantee that the State will knw me and have all the necessary infrmatin abut me and wn t ask fr applicatins and frms every time I need smething. (Greece, urban, 30-44, female, lw) Full autmatin. I think that ur lives will be easier due t develpment f technlgy. (Pland, urban, male, 45+, high/ medium) Peple were ptimistic abut imprvements in medicine in almst all cuntries this was the area where there was mst cnsensus: I can certainly imagine that, thanks t the results f new research, we will be able t treat diseases mre successfully (Germany, urban, 45+, female, high/medium) The means t discver diseases will be much mre effective than they are nw. In the future it will prbably be simpler t identify varius diseases (Estnia, urban, male, 18-29, lw) Greater medical prgress and the yung generatins will live lnger. Peple will be able t check their genes. Such diseases as cancer will be eradicated r under cntrl; strkes and heart attacks will be eliminated. (Pland, urban, male, 45+, high/ medium) They ll have a cure fr cancer and fr AIDS by then (UK, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) Hpes fr imprvements in the ecnmy were mst strngly evident in the Eastern Member States, with a cnsequent reductin in unemplyment and increase in living standards: I think that unemplyment will fall. But in 20 years, yunger peple will have learned t be mre independent and manage their wn affairs better. S unemplyment shuld fall. (Pland, urban, male, 45+, high/ medium) There will be mre jbs, we ll be led by mre crrect and cmpetent leaders and we ll verpass the ecnmic crisis. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) Imprvements in transprt were als envisaged in a few cuntries: Hpefully we ll have better transprt by then its ging t cst mre but we are s stretched nw hpefully it will be better by then (UK, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) 14

15 Scientific benefits are mainly seen in terms f imprvements in medicine, technlgy and transprt rather than in ther areas. In sme cuntries peple believe that there will be greater awareness f the impact f individual lifestyle chices and that climate change will frce peple t re-think hw they lead their lives. In Germany and Sweden in particular, they envisage that peple will take sme respnsibility by riding bikes, eating lcally surced natural fd and behaving in mre envirnmentally respnsible ways. There was a general sense in the UK t that we wuld be living in a mre envirnmentally cnscius sciety by A reductin in crruptin in plitics and an imprved mre transparent plitical system in the future was hped fr (if nt necessarily expected) in Eastern Member States: I believe, at least hpe, that plitics will be mre ethical, that n ne wants t get invlved in it t create better cnditins fr themselves, their relatives r take a bribe (Estnia, rural, 30-44, female, high/medium) I hpe that Greek peple will be mature enugh by then t vte fr yung and new pliticians wh will be willing t rule the State fr the benefit f the peple and nt t make mney. (Greece, urban, 45+, female, medium) The Germans tend t think mre in terms f imprvement thrugh Eurpean integratin, seeing the benefits f cst savings and minimum wages acrss the whle f Eurpe : Eurpe will cntinue t integrate mre clsely and will have cmmn freign and finance plicies. Everything csts t much mney. Things have t be ratinalised. (Germany, urban, 45+, female, high/ medium) Greater educatinal pprtunity was a cmmn theme, especially in the Eastern Member States: Access t extra-curricular activities, access t the Internet, cmputers, English and German language classes free f charge, tutrials. Maybe extracurricular activities practising sprts. (Pland, rural, female, 30-44, lw) T have easier access t educatin and training. In 20 years, it will be easier t have access t training (France, urban, 18-29, male, high/medium) Many feel that jb pprtunities will imprve, in Germany due t glbalisatin and greater integratin f Eurpe but in mre Eastern Member States, due t greater access t educatin and further pprtunity t travel elsewhere fr wrk. There were a minrity wh see everything imprving (apart frm the envirnment): We will be better in everything with the exceptin f the envirnment (France, urban, 18-29, male, high/medium incme) In 2030 peple will have a higher material standard. (Sweden, urban, 18-29, male, high/medium) 15

16 In a few cuntries, imprvements in scial chesin and in the way peple interact with each ther were envisaged. This was mentined in Estnia and in the UK and was particularly ntable in Pland, where peple talked f mre tlerance t minrities and mre respect fr each ther in general: We will learn t respect ne anther, t respect ther peple. (Pland, urban, female, 18-29, high/ medium) [I d like t see] peple getting n better. (UK, urban, 30-44, female, lw) In sme cuntries, in particular thse in Nrth and Western Eurpean Member States, participants fresee mre fcus n the individual: Changes are ging t accentuate and direct us t individualism (France, urban, 30-44, high/ medium) Psitive aspects f greater individualism include taking respnsibility fr ne s wn wellbeing. Peple predict self reliance and persnal respnsibility fr health and climate change: I prefer t use my bicycle t mve arund the twn and nt my car. It is a great exercise and it is nt plluting the air. (Greece, rural, 18-29, male, lw) Envirnmental cnsciusness will be gd amng mst peple in (Sweden, urban, 45+, male, lw) Althugh the main ways in which sciety is expected t imprve tend t be cmmn acrss the Member States (medicine, technlgy, educatin), there are sme where there is less cnsensus r typified different grups f Member States. Imprvements t the ecnmy and plitical systems were cmmnly mentined in Pland, Estnia, Rmania but less frequently mentined in Western member states. In the Western and Nrthern member states, an imprvement in living standards was freseen tgether with increased envirnmental awareness and individual respnsibility. There were in each cuntry certain expectatins that were unique t that cuntry, fr instance in Rmania internet access leading t mre access t public life, r in Pland agriculture likely t becme mre prfitable. All envisage that change will be part f their lives, whatever their situatin and that it will nt necessarily ccur in the way they imagine: Hw I planned ten years ag I can t even see it materialising nw, things are ging t change quickly in the next 20 years. (UK, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) Likely impact f these imprvements The three greatest areas f impact are: imprved future living standards as a result f better ecnmic cnditins and the pening up f markets (in particular in Eastern Eurpe) imprved educatinal access and pprtunity 16

17 technlgical advances leading t the develpment f new energy surces and greater access t infrmatin. In terms f the impact f these changes n sciety, peple see: Due t the imprved ecnmy: increase in living standards reductins in unemplyment Due t educatin better educatin and pprtunity fr better jbs/chance t wrk abrad Increase in eclgical awareness Due t medicine better medical care and healthcare systems s better treatment f currently fatal diseases lnger life Due t technlgical imprvement easier infrmatin access, mre autmatin Due t scientific advance alternative energy resurces with renewables and alternatives, ptentially less cntinuing risk frm climate change Due t better plitical systems less crruptin and mre fairness in sciety Due t imprved scial chesin a mre caring envirnment Due t a mre envirnmentally aware ppulatin less damaging transprt mre care fr the envirnment and cnservatin mre cnsideratin f the value f lcal and natural fds, mtivatin t live mre healthily. In relatin t what difference changes in sciety wuld make t them persnally, there was much fcus, in particular in the Eastern Eurpean cuntries, n the yung. This related principally t the ability f the yung t manage their affairs better, have jbs and be mre educated. Many f the imprvements were freseen as smething that wuld benefit the yunger in sciety, prviding them with better prspects and salaries in the future. Sme f thse in the Eastern member states saw the pprtunity fr their cuntry t take mre f a rle n the internatinal stage in terms f business and in ther ways: Greater awareness f Plish entrepreneurs, business peple. Plish cmpanies becming prfessinal, respecting their clients. (Pland, urban, male, 18-29, high/ medium) Generally, the fcus was n imprved living cnditins and pprtunity. 17

18 Fr thse in the Western Eurpean States, they predict a time nt s much f increased pprtunity, but ne where greater envirnmental awareness and fcus n individual health and wellbeing plays a part. There is a clear difference in the expectatins f hw life will be in the future the frmer (envisaged future in the Eastern Eurpean cuntries) is based n what will happen in terms f the State and the ecnmy, the latter (the Western Eurpeans) mre in terms f what will happen in relatin t individual values and cncerns. The Eastern Eurpeans generally fresee: mre jbs fr the yung mre pprtunities (travel, better living cnditins) mre internet access/wider cmmunicatins imprved plitical stability The Western Eurpeans cnsulted generally fresee: mre fcus n the individual, persnal chices abut fitness/health Almst all tend t see: increasing medical advance scientific advance leading t new energy and transprt ptins imprved educatinal system increase in envirnmental awareness. 3.3 Ways in which sciety will be wrse In general, many f the advances and areas where imprvements are expected, are als mirrred as areas f future ptential prblem; in many cases, where there is pprtunity, there is als threat. Summary Climate change is the mst cmmn aspect in which peple in Eurpe fear that the future will be wrse Fr mst ther areas, standard f living, jb pprtunity etc, pinins are mixed with views ften influenced by member state s recent and current ecnmic situatin There is cnsiderable difference in fears fr the future accrding t where peple live in particular between Western and Eastern member states. The table belw details the main ways in which citizens perceive EU sciety will be wrse in the future. Ways sciety will be wrse Envirnment/Climate change Widening wealth gap Wrsening cmmunicatin/cntact between peple due t technlgy Higher unemplyment Immigratin Member State EE,FR,DE, PL RO, SE EE, PL, RO, DE, SE EE, FR, PL, SE, UK PL, EL, DE, UK EE, PL, UK 18

19 Technlgy taking away jbs EE, PL, RO Higher cst f living PL, EL, UK Hmgenisatin decline f natinal EE, PL, UK states/identity Shrtage f natural resurces FR, SE, UK Yung peple leaving EE, RO Ageing ppulatin EE, PL Fd shrtage due t ppulatin grwth RO, SE Pressure n pensins PL, EL Degradatin f the envirnment, FR, RO pllutin Knwledge gap between children & PL, EL their parents/prer educatin Cmpetitin frm emerging natins SE, FR Less persnal privacy EE, UK Grwth f egism, self interest FR, UK Scial disrder, unrest/war/terrrism RO, UK Mdified fd PL Prer health due t stress/fast lifestyle PL Rise in crime/crruptin RO Mre bservatin by gvernment (e.g. UK CCTV) Mre cars due t grwing ppulatin EE Urbanisatin mve away frm rural t EE twn There were particular cmmn themes acrss the cuntries. The main ne cmmn acrss all Member States was the impact f climate change. Climate change was talked abut in different ways. In cuntries such as Estnia, peple talk abut running ut f natural resurces, increase in pllutin, grwing numbers f peple, cars, urbanisatin, desertificatin; in France abut lack f water, glaciers melting, the disappearance f species. It was nt mentined spntaneusly in Greece r the UK. A theme cmmn t the Eastern Eurpean member states was the threat t jbs psed by develpments in technlgy. Nrthern EU States (EE, PL, UK) shared a visin f pssible decline in natinal identity. Thse in the Western area (FR, SE, UK) were particularly cncerned abut resurces. The fur areas which were mst cmmnly mentined as fears fr the future in a number f member states were: Envirnmental change and the impact that this will cause The likely grwing gap in wealth between rich and pr A decline in face t face and ther frm f cmmunicatin due t cmputers and ther frms f technlgy Pssibly higher unemplyment. The qutes belw give illustrative examples f what peple said abut each f these areas and why they see them as a risk: 19

20 3.3.1 Envirnmental and Climate Change This is a subject that is tp f mind fr peple in sme cuntries such as Germany but was a real cncern acrss almst all Member States thugh expressed in very many different ways: I think that climate change will hit us very hard, in a way we cannt even imagine at the mment (Germany, urban 45+, male, high/medium) In Pland, they talked f eclgy in particular and fresaw that the state f the envirnment wuld deterirate A big effect n the natural envirnment a negative ne (Pland, urban 18-29, female, high/medium) Rmanian participants wrry abut natural disasters, increased pllutin and lack f green spaces: Fr Rmania, cutting dwn the trees will lead t severe prblems. The lack f green parks will lead t a mre plluted air and this will lead t natural disasters and land changes. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) Swedish respndents wrry abut resurce shrtage and abut natural disasters resulting in sme areas f the wrld being unable t supprt ppulatins with a pssible risk f xenphbia. Thse in the UK were cncerned abut vercrwding but did nt mentin climate change spntaneusly. Sme see the envirnmental change ccurring mainly as a result f their wn activities (fr example Rmania and cutting dwn trees) whereas thers, such as Germany and Sweden, envisage that mst f the change is resulting frm natural frces utside their cuntries and utside their cntrl Likely widening wealth gap There is a widespread fear that the gap between rich and pr will becme greater ver the next 20 years, a view shared nt just by cuntries such as Rmania but in wealthy member states such as Germany. There is an increasingly bigger gap between thse wh have mney and thse wh have nt. There is n middle class. Bth in Pland and thrughut the wrld the middle class is disappearing. ( ) there are nly the rich and the pr. Sn there will be very pr peple. (Pland, urban, male, 45+, high/ medium) This gap between the rich and the pr will deepen; it is very prbable t happen. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) Increased islatin It was feared that there wuld be increased islatin due t advances in cmmunicatin technlgy and use f cmputers: 20

21 When I sit beside yu and we talk face-t-face and I can see all yur bdy language and facial expressins, I cmmunicate much mre whlesmely. Nw cmmunicatin is via Facebk and when a persn runs int me n the street, he/she wuld nt even say hell althugh he/she is my friend in Facebk. (Estnia, urban, 45+, male, lw) One will in future be mre alne in an increasingly individualistic sciety (Sweden, urban, 18-29, male, lw) We are less and less alne when we are alne sitting at the cmputer. The methds f cmmunicatin allw this, but there is less and less depth. (France, urban, 30-44, high/ medium) Scial islatin and scial values deterirating was a cncern acrss a number f Member States; in the UK this cncentratin n cmputers and the decline f religin als means that natinal identity will suffer: T live yur life nw yu have t use a laptp life is s cmmercialised there s less f a spiritual level (UK, urban, 18-29, female, lw) Technlgy taking away jbs: Fear f unemplyment, due t new technlgy and fr ther reasns, is high in sme cuntries: Fewer jbs, technlgy will replace peple. (Pland, urban, 18-29, high/ medium) (Due t technlgy) fr the yung generatins it will be very difficult t find a jb. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) I am really afraid that I will sn be unemplyed. My persnal situatin will be difficult and I believe that this will be the case in 20 years frm nw. (Greece, urban, 30-44, male, lw) Fr thse in the Eastern member states in particular there is a fear f increasing hmgenisatin and a lack f natinal identity. The Estnians, Ples and thers feel that decisins will increasingly be made at the EU level. Plish culture will deterirate and lse its identity and values. (Pland, rural, male, 30-44, lw) There were sme issues that were much mre salient in sme Member States than thers. In Pland fr example, there is a fear f higher unemplyment in particular in relatin t manufacturing. Thse wh are ld, especially wmen, r thse with disability, are seen as particularly vulnerable there. In Pland again, the increase in career wmen and peple having babies later was seen as the cntributing t an ageing sciety. In UK, there was cncern abut vercrwding and bservatin by gvernment: We re ging t be cntrlled mre. We see already CCTV everywhere and there s ging t be mre rules! Mre rules frm Brussels (UK, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) 21

22 This surveillance cncern was als expressed in Estnia as a cncern abut privacy. In Rmania there was cncern abut grwing criminality, as a cnsequence f a rise in pverty; the exdus f skilled peple, with unskilled peple cming in their place, was als an unwelcme likelihd in the future: This exdus f skilled peple will lead t being an uneducated cuntry. We dn t see this nw but we ll feel it in 20 years fr sure. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw] Rmania was nt the nly cuntry t talk f emigratin and immigratin in negative terms. Immigratin will increase and we will nt be getting the brains but the hired hands (Estnia, urban, 45+, male, lw) In Estnia, Pland and the UK, immigratin is an area f cncern fr them fr their future. Immigrants will take jbs away frm Ples and wrk fr less mney. (Pland, urban, male, 18-29, high/ medium) Rmania and the UK were the cuntries where mst cncern was expressed abut pssible scial unrest and, in the case f the UK, pssible terrrism. In general there was a cncern acrss the States abut the mvement f peple. This had several aspects: The mvement away f the yung (thugh giving them jb pprtunities elsewhere) The pssible dilutin f skills (exdus f skilled wrkers) Pssible cnflict ver jbs and ver ther issues Fear f immigratin Pssible vercrwding Nt nly are jbs at risk but there is als a cncern abut the effect n natinal identity f ther natinalities cming int the cuntry. In a few cuntries there is als a cncern abut the threat f emerging natins due t ver-ppulatin and the pressure n resurces: We will in 2030 have depleted resurces because develping cuntries cnsumptin increases. (Sweden, urban, 18-29, male, high/ medium) We speak a lt abut emerging natins but they have the resurces that we dn t have (France, rural, 45+, medium/lw) While psitive change in the future was generally seen in natinal terms, negative change was ften seen as cming frm utside natinal bundaries. There is a sense that the natin state r even Eurpe is likely t be less delimited in the future; there will be increased awareness f glbal cncerns and impact frm what is happening elsewhere in the wrld will affect individual cuntries in terms f resurces (energy, fd, and minerals), jbs and in terms f standard f living. 22

23 Fear f the negative effects f an ageing sciety and prlnged fallut frm ecnmic failure mean sme are very pessimistic abut retirement and pensins; this was mst marked in Greece but was als a recurrent tpic in the UK and Pland in particular: Our pensin system has cmpletely failed. We will never stp wrking and have a pensin and that s it. (Greece, urban, 30-44, male, lw) The ptentially devastating effects f climate change were a real fear fr sme in almst all f the Member States: What will be wrse: water, natural catastrphes. When yu see the melting f the glaciers, it is wrrying. (France, rural 45+, medium/lw) Flds, natural disasters. Pllutin f the envirnment. (Pland, rural, male, 30-44, lw) I am afraid f scial disrder r even a natural ne. Earthquakes fr example. (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) Thugh fr mst cuntries the expected widening wealth gap and ptentially negative influence f cmmunicatin technlgy tended t be mentined spntaneusly first, fear f climate change and fear f changes t the envirnment were the issues which respndents were mst cncerned abut: I think that climate change will really hit us very hard, in a way that we cannt even imagine at the mment. (Germany, urban, 45+, male, high/medium) Fr a cuple f cuntries (UK, Greece), althugh health prvisin is ne aspect f sciety that is seen as likely t imprve, sme fear that there will be a grwing pressure n health resurces and that it will becme increasingly available t thse wh are able t pay privately fr health services: It is quite simple. The nes wh will have the mney and the private insurance plans will get treated in mdern hspitals with mdern medicatin and therapies. The rest f us, Gd may help us! (Greece, urban, 40-44, female, lw) I think there s ging t be a big push n private healthcare we can already see it happening. It s ging t be a real prblem fr us because I ve lked int private healthcare I can t affrd it (UK, urban, 45+, female, high/medium) This future divisin in sciety between thse that can pay and thse that cannt is als seen in relatin t educatin again bth in UK and Greece: I believe that ur children will be in a wrse psitin than urs. The gd Universities and schls will be all private and the Public Educatin will be f lw quality. Since, we d nt have mney fr sending ur children t private schls; they will get a pr educatin. (Greece, rural, 18-29, male, lw) Shrtage f natural resurces was mentined as a future wrry fr sme thugh this was expressed differently in different cuntries, fr example in the UK this was a wrry in terms f likely fuel price rises, in Sweden mre in terms f general natural resurces and fd. 23

24 It will be tugher cmpetitin fr fd and natural resurces. (Sweden, urban, 30-44, male, high/ medium) Likely impact f these areas f deteriratin The anticipated scial impact f the issues which peple expressed cncern abut in the future was felt t be as fllws: Due t the disparity in incmes A grwing wealth gap Mre divided sciety Less scial mbility Scial dissatisfactin Due t technlgy Unemplyment Mre difficulties fr the vulnerable in sciety Due t advancement in cmmunicatin technlgy and use f cmputers Increasing islatin Less time with friends and family Fcus n individual and less regard fr wider sciety Due t natinal plitical systems becming less pwerful/migratins Pressure n natinal identity Due t climate change and glbal warming Natural disasters Pressure n the envirnment Fd shrtages Due t ppulatin grwth Migratins Shrtages Pressure n jbs Pressure n husing Pressure n scial welfare systems Scial unrest Due t change in demgraphics/ageing sciety Pressure n pensins Mre lifestyle r age-related diseases Rise f impverishment amngst the elderly The yung having t live at hme lnger Pressures n scial husing and scial welfare Differences t peple persnally Mst f the impact was described at scietal nt individual level, fr instance, pressure n natinal identity and changes t the envirnment. Hwever many f these changes will affect peple at bth levels - at the level f the individual and f sciety at large. In a few cuntries, many individuals wrry abut pensins, seeing that it will affect them and their children: 24

25 There will be n peple t wrk fr ur pensins. When we retire, we will need ur pensins but there simply will be fewer peple wrking. (Pland, rural, male, 30-44, lw) When peple discuss climate change, they wrry that they cannt yet predict hw this might affect them. There is a widespread sense that smething is ging t happen but peple did nt knw what frm this wuld take. There is a wrry generally that the yunger in sciety may suffer frm higher unemplyment and becme mre scially islated due t technlgical develpment, that the divisins between rich and pr may lead t less stable scieties, that the elderly may be prer. Many participants acrss the member states tend t wrry abut wrk and the ecnmy, abut their health, their children s educatin and jb pprtunity, abut plitical stability and the fairness f systems, abut (lack f) resurces, abut the envirnment and pssible change due t verppulatin. 3.4 Summary f scietal changes The fllwing areas were seen in purely psitive terms: Medical advance and imprved healthcare systems (assuming all can benefit frm them) Mst educatinal imprvement & investment Imprvement in natinal plitics Reductin in crime and crruptin (RO) Other areas were seen in exclusively negative terms: Climate change and glbal warming with ensuing unknwn cnsequences Degradatin f the envirnment and pllutin Declining natural resurces Plitical states becming less identifiable. Mst aspects f the future were seen mre ambivalently, with hpes and fears expressed fr each: Unemplyment Incmes & standards f living Technlgy Advances in cmmunicatin technlgy Envirnmental awareness Individualism Energy Immigratin and ppulatin grwth Fr each f these, many peple can see bth psitive and negative future scenaris. Technlgy in particular is seen in tw ways, widely seen as bringing advantages in grwth, but als likely t increase scial islatin and unemplyment. Immigratin (and emigratin) is seen as advantageus by sme in that yunger peple are able t travel t wrk abrad as against the drawback that is als freseen f wrk migrating t cuntries where it can be dne mre cheaply r immigratin meaning that there is mre pressure n jbs at hme. Ppulatin 25

26 grwth was anther area with mixed views - sme (especially in Eastern member states) see it as a driver f the ecnmy, but thers saw it as causing stress n infrastructure, leading t shrtage f resurces, ptential cnflict and envirnmental degradatin. An increasing number f ppulatins will lead t less fd. We ll have a fd crisis in the future (Rmania, urban, male, years, lw) In general, the grwing ppulatin bth in Eurpe and elsewhere is seen as a destabilising influence and ne that shuld be addressed. Overall, there tended t be a fairly balanced view f the future with bth psitive and negative aspects usually described. There was mre pessimism in member states wrst hit by the recessin (Greece, UK) and prer cuntries (Rmania, Pland, Estnia); in cuntries such as Germany and Sweden where there is a high standard f living, generally peple are mre ptimistic abut the future. 3.5 Specific develpments This sectin cnsiders particular develpments that are envisaged ver the next 20 years, bth gd and bad. Each cuntry was asked t identify sme f the majr develpments which wuld affect them and what the impact each might have n the individual and n sciety as a whle Having enugh mney Fr mst, having a decent standard f living and enugh mney is a very real issue. Only in Sweden was it seen as less relevant. Thse in Estnia and France had mixed views n hw they saw this issue sme felt they wuld be better ff in 20 years time and thers felt that they wuld be wrse ff. The qutes belw frm Estnia illustrate hw different views were held by different peple in the same discussin grup: I think that after 20 years life in Estnia will be much better than nw. I mean ecnmically, industrially and in all ways. The standard f living will be higher. (Estnia, urban, 45+, male, lw) I think it is gd if we can maintain ur standard f living in 20 years, but prbably it will becme wrse, because demgraphically the number f thse in need f financial supprt is big. (Estnia, urban, 45+, male, lw) Sme attributed a better financial future t the fact that in the lng term the recent financial crisis wuld be ver: I think we ll verpass this ecnmic crisis and things will be much better. (Rmania, urban, female, years, lw) In Rmania there was a general sense that things wuld get better. Greek participants n the ther hand were largely pessimistic with cncerns abut health services as well as the individual s ability t have a decent standard f living. The situatin will be wrsened by a lack f industry in Greece, the subsequent imprt/ exprt imbalance and a decline in turism. 26