Millennial Benchmark Research April 17, 2015

Transcription

1 Millennial Benchmark Research April 17, 2015

2 Methodology Benenson Strategy Group conducted 1213 telephone interviews from April 6 th to 9 th, 2015 with likely 2016 voters, ages 17-34, in Battleground States who voted in 2012 or are newly registered since. All respondents said they were absolutely certain, very likely, or possibly will vote in the 2016 election for President. BG States Defined As: AZ CO FL IA MI MN NC At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 2.7%. MoE s are higher among subgroups and on questions that were split-sampled. NH NM NV OH PA VA WI 2

3 Level Set: The Millennial Voter Of Millennials, roughly White: 60% Black: 13% Hispanic: 17% 17% identify as multiracial (separate Q from race) 33% don t have a degree & aren t currently getting one 30% are in college 24% 13% have a college have or are degree getting a grad degree 10% 5% 21% 51% single parents married / no kids married w/ kids single / no kids % Live w/ parents Overall % Student % Own a home % Rarely/ never Attend Religious Services 30% Monthly/ few times a year 28% Weekly+ 3

4 Millennials: 2 Out Of 3 Ain t Bad They re Just Not All Democrats HRC v. Jeb Bush Generic Dem v. Generic GOP 58% HRC 30% Bush 46% Dem 27% GOP 12% Other/DK 17% DK 10% Other Party ID + ideology 66% of year olds voted for Obama in 2008 Today s year olds: 66% would vote against a candidate who supported laws that let businesses discriminate against gays 67% would vote against a candidate who supported letting business owners decide whether to cover birth control Getting to 66 requires a deep reach into middle: All Ds + All liberal Is + Almost all moderate Is 35% 20% 45% 11% Liberal 25% Moderate/ 20% Don t Know 9% Conservative 11% 4

5 Millennials: Not So Different But/And Top goals: Supporting a family, feeling in control of their financial futures, being able to afford a home. Stability is not enough: Opportunities for advancement are a top priority; not being valued in a job is scarier than losing a job. They worry a lot more about not being able to pay the bills than about not being able to travel or go out with friends. They want a job with good benefits, and strongly prioritize economic security issues like pay equity and paid sick days. Student debt is a weight around their neck and college-aged kids fear that they can t afford the education they need. Mom and Pop are great, but If they can t be their own boss, more would prefer a medium or large company over a small business or start-up. 5

6 And They Can Surprise You 61% Are happy to be middle class now Middle class language 24% Hope to be it in the future Among the top 5 most convincing reasons to vote HRC (out of 22): Making sure being middle class in America means something Special interests/ anti-corporate language Among least motivating issues to vote AGAINST a candidate: Protecting tax breaks for oil Among least motivating issues to vote FOR a candidate: Cracking down on Wall Street Taking on the powerful special interests who stack the deck Whether it s against everyday Americans or for corporations and the wealthy it leaves Millennials very uninspired. Is pro-consumer the new anti-corporate 42% Would definitely vote for 78% Would def/prob vote for A candidate who Supported regulations on marketers and big corporations to better protect people's data privacy especially children's. 6

7 Realities And Strategic Implications The middle class matters to them. It s not the summation of what they want to achieve in life, but it s a good start. Rest assured the core messaging around the middle class means something translates. They have strong values and they don t value politics. Millennials are pretty immune to standard progressive language around taking on either the special interests or the GOP Congress. Focus on their pain points: discrimination, lack of opportunities to get ahead or establish work/life balance, student loans. They are focused on today s problems, and tomorrow s. Be pro-consumer, not anti-corporate: Data privacy issues concern them more than banking regulation. Establish a strong contrast on LGBT discrimination issues and other RFRA consequences. Many, not most, are excited by the idea of a woman president but it s certainly not the only thing they re excited about and it can alienate some males on the margins. For activating the base, focus on the historic context of her being the first woman president. For persuasion targets, use issues like pay equity to give them permission to get excited about a woman candidate. Be aspirational, not confrontational. Restore the basic premise that you leave the next generation a better world than the one you were handed. Ensure we don t shortchange your generation. An economy that helps more Americans get ahead. A crack down on special interests preventing everyday Americans from getting ahead. 7

8 Segmenting Millennials Core: 39% Voting HRC and slim-to-no chance voting for Jeb Core Cusp OTT I D D R I R I 63% women 54% women 63% men 53% White 18% African American 19% Hispanic 54% White 15% African American 18% Hispanic 79% White 1% African American 13% Hispanic Off The Table: 24% Never vote HRC and say they never will Cusp: 37% Everyone else 32% student 26% lives with parents and are % attend church at least monthly 38% students 44% attend church at least monthly 27% student 28% married with kids 55% attend church at least monthly Tea Party 2.0: The worst things a candidate could do from OTT s perspective is restrict guns or offer free college 8

9 The Issue Spectrum For Core And Cusp Pay equity Paid sick Transgender protections 100% clean by 2050 Tax cuts Medical marijuana Positive motivators Highest: % definitely vote for that candidate College affordability Racial injustice in judicial system Marriage equality Data privacy Climate change Infrastructure Wall St. crack down Defund Planned Parenthood LGBT Discrimination, religion-based Opposed marriage equality Climate change denier Background checks Tax breaks for oil Repeal ACA Negative motivators Highest: % definitely NOT vote for that candidate Core Supported Hobby-Lobby Anti-abortion laws Against school funding Anti-immigrant Opposed med marijuana 9

10 Lay of the Land

11 HRC Rallies Young People, Especially Women, More Than A Generic Dem But Still Has Room To Grow Generic party and candidate-specific horseraces Generic Dem v. Generic Rep HRC v. Bush HRC v. Paul Much of this over-performance likely attributable to her being a woman: Women: +15 points Men: +9 points Bush margin White men: HRC -7 Non-white men: HRC +43 Paul margin HRC -14 HRC +28 GHR1: In November 2016 there will be an election for President of the United States. I know it's a long way off, but if the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote? GHR2: If the election for President was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote? Q4: If the election for President was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote? 11

12 Encouragingly, No Ebb To Jeb As Age Increases Horserace HRC v. Jeb Bush Overall Dem Ind Rep White Men Lib 81 6 White Women Ind Mod Nonwhite Men Cons Nonwhite Women Men <$50k Women $50k GHR2: If the election for President was held today and the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush, for whom would you vote? 12

13 This Group Largely Knows HRC But Their Connection Lacks Intensity Favorability Total Favorable Very Favorable Jeb Bush 28% Favorable 48% Unfavorable 24% Unfamiliar Only 6% unfamiliar Outperforms HRC with Republicans and men Outperforms HRC with African Americans 40% unfamiliar Rand Paul 31% Favorable 31% Unfavorable 38% Unfamiliar C1-4,Q2-3: Do you have a very favorable view of them, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of them? 13

14 On the Economy

15 The Millennial Spectrum Age Future compared to parents The future is bright(er) Reality bites Reality sets in 43% better 19% worse 29% better 28% worse 34% better 33% worse Most salient concerns Goals for career Get by and get going Weight of the world Moving on up Losing/finding a job Affording the basics 33% Work-family balance 34% Something you love 25% Make a difference Finding a job when need Affording basics Affording a home Feeling valued 47% Work-family balance 30% Something you love 15% Make a difference Opportunities for advancement Feeling valued Finding a job when need Clear eyes, full hearts Love, actually Balance, actually 56% Work-family balance 26% Something you love 14% Make a difference Q10: In the future, compared to your parents, do you think you will be much better off, a little better off, a little worse off, much worse off, or about the same? Q71-81: Do you worry about it a great deal, some, not very much, or not at all? Q83: Which of the following best describes what you want most out of your career? 15

16 Millennials Seek Emotional More Than Material Validation Coming of age in recession has made them gun-shy they choose stability over luxury Importance to future hopes and goals Being able to support a family Feeling in control of your financial future Having a strong family life Being able to afford your own home Feeling stable in your day-to-day finances 7 - Absolutely essential Feeling like you have enough money to shop at the supermarket or Feeling like you have enough money to shop at the supermarket or clothing store of your choice Being able to afford to travel or take a vacation every once in a while Being able to go out to a nice dinner once in a while with your family Being able to afford a nice dinner out with friends 26 Q53-70: How important is this to the hopes and goals you have for the future? Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means it is not at all important to you personally for your hopes and goals and 7 means it is absolutely essential to your future hopes and goals. Q83: Which of the following best describes what you want most out of your career? 16

17 Security, Opportunity And Rewards All Matter Job concerns % worried a great deal/ great deal + some Overall Not being able to find a job when you need one 38/65 Not having enough money to afford the basics 37/61 That paying off your student debt will hold you back for years 34/57 Not having a job where you feel valued 33/69 Losing a job 33/58 Not having opportunities for advancement in your career 31/67 Getting punished or held back in your career for having a family 31/49 That you won't be able to afford to buy a home for many years 30/60 Having to live with parents or other relatives specifically because you don't make enough money 30/48 Not being able to afford the education you need for the career you want 29/58 That you'll never have the money to travel and have the experiences you want to have in life 23/58 Over half of people over 30 worry Women under 25 especially worried Salient for noncollege nonstudents Which concerns you more? 51 There are plenty of jobs, but they don't offer good salaries or opportunities for advancement 36 There aren't enough jobs out there for people like you Q71-81: Do you worry about it a great deal, some, not very much, or not at all? Q82: Which of the following concerns you more? 17

18 Being Their Own Boss Sounds Great Benefits And Security Sounds Better Job hopes and goals In the future, would you most want to work at...? All Your own business Students Aspirations %7 (absolutely essential) on 1-7 scale Medium-sized company Small business Fortune 500 corporation Start-up Starting your own business Knowing you have security in your job and you won't be outsourced or laid off Having a job with benefits, like health insurance, retirement, and sick leave Q84: In the future, would you most want to work? Q53-70: How important is this to the hopes and goals you have for the future? Use a scale of 1 to 7, where 1 means it is not at all important to you personally for your hopes and goals and 7 means it is absolutely essential to your future hopes and goals. 18

19 The Middle Class Is A Safe Space For Us And Them Deconstructing the Millennial middle class Most think they are and are happy to be middle class How would you describe yourself? % much more favorable to HRC after hearing: And it enhances the message Working Class Middle Class sounds like Lower Middle Class Middle Class Upper Middle Class What you hope to be in the future 24% What you are happy to be now 61% Something out of reach for you 4% Not something you would want to be 8% 42% Hillary Clinton says she is running for President to make being middle class mean something again and to build an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. Hillary Clinton says she is running for President to build an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. 38% Q13: For you personally, does the phrase middle class mostly sound like Q : Does this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, much less favorable or no more or less favorable to Hillary Clinton? 19

20 On the Issues

21 Get Candidates On The Record On RFRA Disqualifying issues, % would not vote for candidate who Definitely not vote for Wanted to Wanted defund to defund Planned Planned Parenthood and shut millions of of women off women from off access from access to basic to basic health care services. Supported laws that would let businesses refuse to serve gays if they feel it violates their religious beliefs. Supported laws that would let businesses refuse to serve gays if they feel it violates their religious beliefs. Supported the law that lets employers deny their employees birth control if the employer feels it violates their religious beliefs. Supported the law that lets employers deny employees birth control if the they feels it violates their religious beliefs. Pushed for laws that would put politicians between a woman and her doctor on decisions about abortion. Pushed for laws that would put politicians between a woman and her doctor on decisions about abortion. Probably not vote for Total not vote for Opposed legalizing same-sex marriage. Opposed legalizing same-sex marriage Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 21

22 All Education Policies Strong, With Student Loan Help On Par With Free College Energizing issues, % would vote for candidate who Definitely vote for Probably vote for Total vote for < Would make student loans more affordable, with lower interest rates and the ability to refinance over time if rates drop % Def vote for Had a plan that would let people attend college for free Had a plan that would let people attend college without paying any tuition upfront and instead repay based on their income afterwards Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 22

23 Gun Issues Can Alienate A Portion Of The Cusp If a candidate opposed background checks Core Cusp Off The Table If a candidate supports new restrictions on gun ownership def/prob vote for candidate 27 def/prob vote for candidate prob/def not vote for candidate 45 prob/def not vote for candidate 61 Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 23

24 In The Future, All Politics Will Be Global; One Of The Sharpest Ideological Divides Seen In Poll Which of the following do you agree with more? The U.S. has overextended its military and needs to stop getting involved in other countries' affairs The U.S. needs to take the lead in combating terrorism and other global threats Total Core Cusp Off The Table Q48: Which of the following do you agree with more? The U.S. needs to take the lead in combating terrorism and other global threats. We need to act aggressively to address threats to U.S. economic and national security - wherever they emerge. / The U.S. has overextended its military and needs to stop getting involved in other countries' affairs. The unnecessary and ineffective wars of the past 13 years have left us more vulnerable and less secure. 24

25 Messaging Findings

26 Key Architecture Components Succeed Especially Those Focused On Opportunities To Get Ahead Top-tier messages How convincing a reason to vote for HRC, if she focused on Making sure that as America's economy economy improves, improves, working working and middle-class and middle-class families also see see rewards and opportunities and opportunities increase. increase. Building a strong economy that helps more Americans get ahead and Building strong economy that helps more Americans get ahead and stay ahead. stay ahead. Creating Creating opportunities so so that that working and middle-class Americans Americans get can get ahead. Restoring the basic premise in America that you leave the next generation a Restoring the basic premise in America that you leave the next better world than the one you were handed. generation a better world than the one you were handed. Making sure Making that sure being that being middle middle class class in in America means something again. again. Creating the jobs of tomorrow. Creating the jobs of tomorrow. Building an economy Building an that economy rewards that anyone rewards who anyone does who their does part. their part. Restoring the basic guarantee that in America, if you do the right Restoring the basic guarantee that in America, if you do the right things, work things, work hard, and make responsible decisions, then you'll not only hard, and make responsible decisions, then you'll not only be secure, you'll be secure, you'll prosper. Creating 21 st century jobs. Creating 21st century jobs. Very convincing Total Somewhat convincing convincing The right way to make a generational statement 18 points better with Core 21 st century may sound old-fashioned to our people (who entered adulthood in 1999) Q85-106: If Hillary Clinton was focused on doing this as President, how convincing a reason would it be to vote for her? Would it be very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not at all convincing? 26

27 Keep HRC Firmly Planted In America, Not DC Bottom-tier messages How convincing a reason to vote for HRC, if she focused on Very convincing Building a 21 st century Building economy. a 21st century economy. 30 Ensuring we Ensuring don't shortchange we don't shortchange your generation. your generation. 30 Somewhat convincing Total convincing The wrong way to court this generation Working to find common ground with Republicans in Congress so we Working to find common ground with Rep. in Congress so we can can continue to make progress. continue to make progress Standing Standing up to Republicans up to Rep. in in Congress who would take our country backwards. backwards Fighting for Fighting her beliefs for her and beliefs standing standing her ground her with ground Republicans with Rep. in in Congress. Congress Taking on the powerful special interests who stack the deck against Taking on the powerful special interests who stack the deck against your generation. your generation. Taking on on the the powerful special interests who who stack stack the the deck deck against everyday Americans. Taking on the powerful special interests who stack the deck in Taking on the powerful special interests who stack the deck in favor of favor of corporations and the wealthy. corporations and the wealthy Q85-106: If Hillary Clinton was focused on doing this as President, how convincing a reason would it be to vote for her? Would it be very convincing, somewhat convincing, not very convincing, or not at all convincing? 27

28 Gender Can Be A Value-Add % would be excited to vote for this type of presidential candidate Overall Core Cusp 31 For activation: Real currency in being the first" 60 For persuasion: It can t be woman for the sake of a woman A woman The first woman President A strong, qualified woman Q49-Q52: If a candidate for president was would that make you much more excited to vote for that candidate, somewhat more excited, somewhat less excited, much less excited to vote for that candidate, or would it not affect your view at all? 28

29 But Use It Subtly, So It Doesn t Distract Or Detract From Main Message HRC messages % much more favorable Total Hillary Clinton says she is running for President to make being middle class mean something again and to build an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. Hillary Clinton says that some people might vote for her because she's a woman, and some people might vote against her because of it. But, she's running for President to make being middle class mean something again and to build an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. Hillary Clinton says it would be an honor to be the first woman President. And it would be an even greater honor to be the President who makes being middle class mean something again and who builds an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. Core + Cusp Men Women Q : Does this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, much less favorable or no more or less favorable to Hillary Clinton? 29

30 Accomplishments Can Illuminate Values HRC messages Popular issues strengthen the message % much more favorable / total more favorable Total C+C As First Lady, Hillary Clinton used her position to advocate for women and families, including convening White House conferences on children's issues and working with Congress to create the Children's Health Insurance Program, which now covers 8 million children and has cut the uninsured rate for children in half. As Secretary of State, Hillary was a forceful champion for human rights, Internet freedom, religious freedom, and rights and opportunities for women and girls, LGBT people, and young people around the globe. Hillary Clinton says she is running for President to build an economy where we measure our strength by how many families get ahead, not by how much CEOs and those at the top are earning. Hillary Clinton says she is running for President to ensure today's middle class - and the next generation of American workers, innovators, leaders, and families - have the opportunities and tools they need to succeed in tomorrow's economy. 46/84 59/95 44/80 56/92 38/76 48/88 32/83 42/92 Q : Does this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, much less favorable or no more or less favorable to Hillary Clinton? 30

31 Appendix

32 Targeting Tweaks: FYIs On Key Demos Meaningfully Different From Overall Energizing Issues Disqualifying Issues Non-whites Male Female Free college/loans rank relatively higher Religion-based LGBTdiscrimination particularly powerful n/a Not funding public schools ranks higher for Free College ranks quite high; investigating racial injustice higher than average but still not top-tier Not funding public schools ranks higher Clean energy ranks relatively higher n/a Defunding PP head and shoulders above other negatives; climate denier on par with antigay Antidiscriminati on edges out women s issues (both very strong) Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 32

33 Positive Issues % def vote/ def+prob vote for a candidate that Total Pay equity Would strengthen laws that ensure women get paid the same as men when they do the same work 53/83 Paid sick Supported laws that would ensure all workers could take sick days or leave to deal with an illness or a new child 52/84 Had a plan that would let people attend college without paying any tuition upfront and instead repay based on their income afterwards 41/65 College affordability Had a plan that would let people attend college for free 41/68 Would make student loans more affordable, with lower interest rates and the ability to refinance over time if rates drop 39/75 Data privacy Supported regulations on marketers and big corporations to better protect people s data privacy especially children s 42/78 Marriage equality Supported legalizing marriage for same-sex couples 40/61 Supported passing a federal law to legalize marriage for same-sex couples 34/63 Racial injustice in judicial system Would investigate and address racial injustice in our criminal system 38/70 100% clean by 2050 Would set a goal for the U.S. to use only clean, domestic energy sources by /73 Infrastructure Would create new jobs for unemployed young people with a national infrastructure investment program 35/71 Transgender protections Wanted to ensure that transgender people had the same protections that gays and lesbians get 34/63 Tax cuts Supported tax cuts for middle-class people 30/69 Climate change Committed to addressing the problem of climate change with a plan to meaningfully reduce carbon pollution 28/63 Medical marijuana Would legalize the use of medical marijuana for sick people who ve been prescribed it by a doctor 29/70 Wall St. crack down Supported new regulations to crack down on Wall Street and big banks 26/62 Gun control Supports new restrictions on gun ownership 22/47 Corporate reg. Wanted to roll back regulations on businesses to let innovation thrive 18/48 Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 33

34 Negative Issues Defund Planned Parenthood Religion-based LGBT Discrimination Supported Hobby- Lobby % def not vote/ def+prob not vote for a candidate that Total Wanted to defund Planned Parenthood and shut millions of women off from access to basic health care services Supported laws that would let businesses refuse to serve gays if they feel it violates their religious beliefs Supported the law that lets employers deny their employees birth control if the employer feels it violates their religious beliefs Anti-abortion laws Pushed for laws that would put politicians between a woman and her doctor on decisions about abortion 39/60 Opposed marriage equality 52/70 49/66 42/67 Opposed legalizing same-sex marriage 37/53 Against school funding Failed to support additional funding for our public schools 36/58 Climate change denier Did not believe that climate change was a real problem 36/55 Background checks Opposed background checks on gun sales 32/57 Opposed student loan Voted against reducing the cost of student loans and against efforts to lower the cost of higher education 29/48 reform Anti-immigrant Supported strict anti-immigration laws that would deport millions 24/47 Tax breaks for oil Protected tax breaks for oil companies 22/51 Repeal ACA Would repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare 22/34 Opposed med marijuana Opposed the use of medical marijuana 21/44 Q14-46: Now I am going to read you some things you might hear about a candidate for President. For each one, please tell me whether knowing that about a candidate would make you definitely vote for that candidate, probably vote, might or might not vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote for that candidate. 34