The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities"

Transcription

1 The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016

2 Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, Likely voters were determined based on whether they voted in 2012 or registered since and stated intention of voting in Data shown in this deck is among those who identify as Republicans or independents who lean Republican and vote in Republican primaries or caucuses. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.47 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. Republican Party Project typology. The 5 categories of Republicans are mutually exclusive categories determined by respondents responses on ideology, religion, frequency of service attendance, strength of Tea Party support and favorability towards the Tea Party. To ensure that the web-survey accurately reflects the national Republican Party, the typologies were weighted to the average for each type from Democracy Corps last three national surveys. Factor analysis. A factor analysis was conducted using principal-components analysis on the thermometer and agree/disagree responses, while also trying the principal factors and maximum likelihood methods to check the results. The most prominent factors from each analysis were used to compute factors scores. The PCA results retained 9 factors with eigenvalues greater than 1. Cumulatively, the 9 retained factors explain 64.1% of the variance in the feeling thermometers and attitudinal questions. Regression analysis. A series of fractional logistic regressions were conducted to obtain the marginal effects of explanatory variables (candidate doubts/democratic & Republican messages) on outcome variables (presidential revote, stated likelihood of voting for candidate, and electability), representing the change in outcome probabilities estimated for a hypothetical shift in explanatory variables, all else held equal. No causation is implied by these results. Instead, the hypothetical shifts described here and included in the results section provide information about how closely each explanatory variable is linked to the specified outcome. 1

3 Key findings The explosive civil war inside the GOP can move significant votes out of the Republican camp and this poll is a start. Trump is poised to win the nomination because of his strong Tea Party and working class base and because he competes among the Evangelicals AND Moderates. Cruz has faltered because he is not liked by Observant Catholics. Rubio is faltering because his hard pro-life stance blocks gains with Moderates. What unites today s Republican Party is: 1. Fundamental opposition to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Obamacare, and the Democrats who are socialists that threaten the Constitution; 2. Opposition to immigration & growing foreign presence in a more racially diverse America; 3. Skepticism about government regulations; 4. Belief in a strong military. 2

4 Key findings, cont. The GOP is threatened first by a revolt among the Moderates who form 30 percent of the Republican Party base. They are heavily college-educated and accept the sexual revolution. They believe most abortions should be legal & dislike the pro-life groups. They say stop trying to fight gay marriage. They are conservative, but not as ideological as the others. The GOP is threatened by a huge crack that runs right down the middle of the GOP that separates the Tea Party & Evangelicals (47 percent) from Moderates & Observant Catholics (45 percent). These are the issues that fracture the party: 1. Moderate/Catholic bloc believes government should help with healthcare & the free market needs regulation; not the Tea Party/Evangelical bloc; 2. The Moderate led bloc believes facts & science on climate change; not the Tea Party led bloc; 3. The Moderate led bloc is anti-n.r.a; not the Tea Party led bloc. 3

5 Key findings, cont. The Trump race in particular already pushes 20 percent of Republicans to say they are uncertain what they will do, including one-quarter of Catholics and one-third of Moderates. The Party is poised to shed voters. After attacks & messages, the Trump vote drops 14 points among Catholics & among the Moderates, the Trump margin against Hillary drops 9 points. The strongest attacks on Trump are that he is an ego-maniac that is for himself, not the country; disrespectful of women; can t be trusted with nuclear weapons; and denies America a clean energy future. The strongest Democratic messages that shift Catholics & Moderates are long-term investment in modernizing America; getting CEOs and corporations to focus on investment, not stock prices; stop fighting social issues and trying to turn back the clock so we can address the country s problems. This civil war has consequences and this poll gives people the tools they need to plan their strategy and campaigns. 4

6 THE GOP BASE 5

7 The Republican base Establishment 8% Tea Party 17% Moderate 31% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% 6

8 About the RPP Segments Tea Party 17% Evangelical 30% Observant Catholic 14% Moderate 31% Tea Party: Evangelicals: Observant Catholic: Moderate: 63% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 73% Strong Republican 33% Strong Republican 66% working class 63% working class 63% working class 66% college educated 75% married 74% married 58% unmarried 64% married 62% male 51% male 55% male 52% female 36% live in Conservative Heartland 46% live in Expanded East Coast 7

9 GOP PRIMARY 8

10 Trump dominates primary vote choice Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 32 Primary Vote Choice Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 3 9

11 No evidence any candidate considered more electable than Trump Regardless of who you are supporting for president, which of the Republican candidates for president has the best chance of defeating the Democratic candidate in November? Best Chance in November Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 10

12 Trump's base is in the Tea Party bloc Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? 50 Primary Vote Choice Tea Party Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 11

13 Trump and Cruz are splitting the Evangelical vote Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Evangelicals Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 12

14 Catholic vote split between Kasich, Trump and Rubio Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Observant Catholic Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 13

15 Moderates vote fragmented, with Trump more than competitive Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Moderates Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not sure 14

16 Trump s support starts with working class base Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Working Class v. College Educated Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Non College College Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 15

17 Men s preference for Trump drives up his margins Thinking about the Republican presidential primary election or caucus in your state, if the primary or caucus for the Republican nominee for President were held today, for whom would you vote? Primary Vote Choice Men v. Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Bush Other Not Sure 16

18 WHAT DO REPUBLICANS BELIEVE? 17

19 The factors that underlie GOP attitudes: anti-democratic twice as powerful as pro-republican factor % of responses explained by each variable Dem. Leaders, Party, Policies GOP Leaders & Party Trump, antiimmgration, populism, environmentalism Conservative attitude on social issues Attitudes towards women, minorities, and politicians associated with them Role of government Attitudes towards minorities, immigrants, women, Kasich & Bush Free market economic attitudes Populism & community 18

20 Dominant underlying dimension is anti-obama, Clinton, Democrats, and their threat to constitution FACTOR 1: Democratic leaders & Democrats generally Explains 23.81% of Responses Barack Obama Democratic Party Constitution under daily attack by Obama Admin. Hillary Clinton Affordable Care Act/Obamacare Democratic policies so misguided they threaten the country Nancy Pelosi Bernie Sanders 19

21 Hillary Clinton now viewed more negatively than Obama Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 7.1 Mean: 8.2 Mean: 15.3 Mean: 13.5 Mean: 16.6 Mean: 19.6 Net: -94 Net: -89 Net: -89 Net: -84 Net: -79 Net: Hillary Clinton Nancy Pelosi Dem Party Barack Obama Bill Clinton Bernie Sanders 20

22 Important underlying dimension defined by Trump and immigration FACTOR 3: Trump, opposition to non-english speaking immigrants, support for taxing the rich and environmentalism Explains 5.78% of Responses Donald Trump It bothers me when immigrants don't speak English Rich should pay more taxes Measures to address global warming Measures to protect environment 21

23 Reject evidence & facts on immigration more than any other subject Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Net migration from Mexico has been zero or less since 2005, the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants in the U.S. has declined to 1.3 million since Definitely true -23 Definitely the liberal media NET Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change States that have passed laws closing loopholes at gun shows some people use to get around background checks have seen 40 percent fewer cases of fatal domestic violence incidence and 40 percent fewer police killed on duty Women on average make 77 cents for every dollar a man makes

24 WHAT ISSUES & VALUES UNITE ALL GOP FACTIONS? 23

25 What unites the GOP? Democrats a threat to the nation Disdain for its leaders, starting with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. Democrats are socialists Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. Disdain for Obamacare. Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants & foreign born It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English. Want a nominee who will fight against the fact that: 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Strong military key The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Constitution threatened The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration. Regulation harmful Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. 24

26 Socialist Democrats threaten nation's well-being: all factions believe Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Today, there is no real difference between the Democratic Party and socialism. The Democratic Party's policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation's well-being. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

27 Bothered by non-english speaking immigrants, want a nominee to fight illegal immigration For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. It bothers me when I come in contact with immigrants who speak little or no English Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET 12 million undocumented immigrants live in the U.S. and the foreign-born make up a growing proportion of our major cities. Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

28 All GOP factions agree on peace through strength Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. The best way to ensure peace is through military strength. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

29 Consensus that Constitution is under attack Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. The Constitution is under daily attack by the Obama Administration. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

30 GOP consensus that regulation does more harm than good Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

31 GOP CIVIL WAR: BEGINS WITH MODERATES 30

32 31 Two-thirds of Moderates believe that abortion should be legal in most cases Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? Legal in all cases Illegal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Legal Illegal Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

33 GOP attitudes strongly gravitate around attitudes towards homosexuality and abortion FACTOR 4: Conservative attitudes on social issues Explains 4.68% of Responses Homosexuality should be discouraged Gay marriage Abotion should be illegal in all cases Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood 32

34 Moderates hostile to pro-life groups and for Planned Parenthood Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable % Unfavorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Pro-life groups Planned Parenthood 33

35 Only Moderates accept sexual revolution and pre-marital sex Many Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track. Below are some changes taking place in America. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Women and men feel free to have sex without any interest in getting married, forming a family or a long-term relationship. Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

36 Moderates isolated in GOP by their lack of negativity towards gay marriage Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Unfavorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate Gay Marriage 35

37 Moderates want to accept homosexuality and gay marriage, not discourage and fight it For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. For each, please indicate if you want a Republican nominee who will fight to stop it or one who will accept it and move on to other issues. Homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Gay marriage is now legal in the U.S. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Fight strongly Accept strongly NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

38 Moderates don t seek communities with shared political values Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. It's important to me to live in a place where most people share my political views. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

39 Moderate stand apart on climate change and environmental protection Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. Because the earth is getting warmer because of what humans are doing, we need to begin taking serious measures to address global warming. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET There needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

40 Moderates don't rally to Scalia Supreme Court replacement Below is a statement by a Republican candidate about the country. Please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Republican candidate who says it. SCALIA: Everything we believe in is at stake in this election. Justice Scalia's death means that voters in November will decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control the White House, the Supreme Court and the U.S. Senate. Liberals really could be fully in control and unions could get more power, business could face suffocating regulation, we could lose the right to bear arms, abortions could be available without restrictions and the president s illegal executive action on amnesty could go forward. We must unify as a Party to win in November. Much more likely All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

41 GOP CIVIL WAR: TEA PARTY & EVANGELICALS vs. MODERATES & CATHOLICS 40

42 Free market and low taxes win support from Tea Party and Evangelicals, but not so much Moderates & Catholics Below are some statements. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree with it. A free market economy needs government regulation in order to best serve the public interest. People making over $250,000 a year should pay a lot more in taxes. Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET Disagree Strongly Agree Strongly NET All Republicans All Republicans Tea Party Tea Party Evangelical Evangelical Observant Catholic Observant Catholic Moderate Moderate

43 Tea Party & Evangelicals reject climate change consensus, not so with Catholics & Moderates Below are some things reported in the paper and on the news. For each, please tell me if you think that it might be true OR it might be the liberal media trying to justify their agenda. Scientists say that 2015 was the hottest year in historical record by a wide margin, and 98 percent of climate scientists agree that human activity is a significant factor in climate change. Definitely just the liberal media Definitely true NET All Republicans Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate

44 Moderates & Catholics not fans of N.R.A Please rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and concepts, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. % Favorable Tea Party Evangelical Observant Catholic Moderate N.R.A 43

45 GOP CIVIL WAR PRESENTS IMMEDIATE OPPORTUNITIES 44

46 Trump pushes 20 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? TOTAL Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 45

47 Observant Catholics: Trump pushes uncertain to 24 percent, Cruz pushes 21percent to Clinton Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Observant Catholic Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 4 21 Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 46

48 Moderates: Trump pushes 30 percent to uncertain vote Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Marco Rubio? Moderates Other Not Sure Won t Vote Trump Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Cruz Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote Rubio Clinton Other/ DK/Won't Vote 47

49 Strongest attacks on Trump are ego, views of women, and security Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Donald Trump in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Donald Trump? ATTACKS ON DONALD TRUMP Very serious doubts EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women NATIONAL SECURITY: He is not qualified to deal with national security issues and shouldn't be trusted with our nuclear weapons BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change when clean energy is America's future ANTI-TRADE: His America First economic policies and opposition to all global trade agreements means American business will lose out and America will be less competitive in the world

50 Abortion position most worrisome about Rubio Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for Marco Rubio in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about Marco Rubio? ATTACKS ON MARCO RUBIO Very serious doubts ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality WEAK: He is too weak to stand up to our adversaries, like Vladimir Putin INEXPERIENCED: He is a junior U.S. Senator with no executive experience and could be another Obama BIG OIL-CLEAN ENERGY: He backs a big oil and coal agenda and denies climate change, even though Florida is already paying the price of extreme weather and even though it denies Florida the benefit of clean energy

51 Attacks lead 25% to pull away from Trump but 30 percent pull off from Cruz and Rubio After reading these doubts about [Republican Candidate], how much less likely are you to vote for [Republican Candidate] in a race against Hillary Clinton? Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Trump Cruz Rubio

52 For moderates, top attacks are abortion, gay marriage and women Moderates Below is a list of reasons why some Republicans say they couldn't vote for [Republican candidate] in an election against Hillary Clinton. For each one, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about [Republican candidate]? MODERATES TRUMP DOUBTS EGOMANIAC: He is an ego-maniac and entertainer that cares more about gaining power and fame than helping the country. WOMEN: He is very disrespectful of women. IMMIGRANTS: He would expel millions of undocumented immigrants and is intolerant of immigrants, Hispanics, Muslims, and people who look different. CRUZ DOUBTS PRO-LIFE: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest, and is fighting to defund Planned Parenthood. ANTI-GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. GRIDLOCK WORSE: He is so ideological and uncompromising that he led to the shutdown of the federal government and will make gridlock worse. RUBIO DOUBTS Very serious doubts ABORTION: He thinks abortion should be illegal in all cases, even in cases of rape and incest. GAY MARRIAGE: He thinks gay marriage is a sin and would appoint Supreme Court justices that would end marriage equality. DEPENDENCY: He is the only GOP presidential candidate who wants to spend $1 trillion on new tax credits for the poor that will create just more dependency

53 America first economic policies and big oil produced opposition to clean energy future shift vote away IMPACT OF TRUMP DOUBTS ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 82: Big oil-clean energy 52

54 Catholics most receptive to criticisms about Rubio After reading these doubts about Marco Rubio, how much less likely are you to vote for Marco Rubio in a race against Hillary Clinton? IMPACT OF DOUBTS ON VOTE FOR MARCO RUBIO Much less likely Somewhat less likely A little less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Less likely No less likely Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic

55 WINNING DISCONTENTED GOP VOTERS 54

56 Infrastructure, CEO governance, billionaire donors top themes Below are some statements by a Democratic candidate about the country. For each statement, please indicate how much more likely you would be to support the Democratic candidate who says it. INVESTMENT: We have been too focused on short-term fixes when our country should be making long-term investments so America can lead in the 21st century. We should make sure we get our money's worth for all government spending, and we know national public investments pay off. Lincoln built the transcontinental railroad; Eisenhower built the interstate highway system. Today, America must modernize our infrastructure, expand our energy and Internet grid and ensure we lead in all scientific research. CORPORATIONS: CEOs and senior corporate management have let down their own companies, employees, and America. They jacked up their compensation while outsourcing jobs and avoided paying taxes by moving their corporate headquarters overseas. And they stopped investing in research, innovation and their own work force. We should change the rules around CEO pay so they profit from long-term investment in innovation and skill training, not from inflating stock prices Much more likely 48 CAMPAIGN MONEY: Billionaires and corporate donors are spending millions of dollars on secret campaign contributions to buy politicians and make sure government works for them, not you. It is time to reduce the toxic influence of money in politics and fight for a new way of funding campaigns that amplifies the voices of everyday Americans so democracy works for all of us BEYOND SOCIAL ISSUES: So many leaders are determined to turn back the clock on social issues that are settled for the rest of the country. Leave Planned Parenthood alone, allow women to get contraceptive coverage, and accept that same sex marriages are now legal. Let's start addressing our country's problems WORKING WOMEN: Women today are working as much as men, and our policies need to catch up to the modern family where many women are on their own. Its time women get equal pay with men, help with childcare, and paid sick days and family leave CLIMATE: So many leaders are stuck in the past, denying climate change and supporting the agenda of the big oil and coal companies. That's hurting the country. American technology and innovation has driven down the price of solar power by 80 percent and now creates 8 times more new jobs a year than old energy. America's economic future lies with building a new, clean energy economy

57 Moving beyond social issues and infrastructure investment have greatest impact on voting for Clinton over Trump IMPACT OF MESSAGES ON PRESIDENTIAL REVOTE 113: (DEM) Beyond Social Issues 56

58 Attacks, Democratic messages dislodge Catholics & Moderates Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- (ROTATE CANDIDATES) Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Trump Trump v. Clinton Clinton Other Not sure Won t Vote Observant Tea Party Evangelical Moderate Catholic 57

59 WORLD HEADQUARTERS NEW YORK HEADQUARTERS EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS CANADIAN HEADQUARTERS Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC Phone: Fax: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 25 Broadway 9th Floor New York, NY T: (212) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 22 Bloomsbury Sq. London, UK WC1A 2NS T: +44 (0) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner First Canadian Place Toronto Board of Trade Tower Toronto, ON M5K 1C1 Phone:

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report on new survey of Republicans February 2016 Methodology National Web-Survey of 800 Likely 2016 Republican Voters. This survey took place February 11-16, 2016.

More information

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report from Republican Party Project Survey

The GOP Civil War & Its Opportunities Report from Republican Party Project Survey Date: February 29, 2016 To: Friends of From: Stanley Greenberg and James Carville, Report from Republican Party Project Survey When you see the results of this survey, you will believe that either Donald

More information

Battleground 2016: new game. June 30, 2016

Battleground 2016: new game. June 30, 2016 Battleground 2016: new game June 30, 2016 Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11-20. Respondents who

More information

Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016

Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016 Creating a Mandate to Rewrite the Rules of the Economy July 2016 Methodology National phone survey of 900 likely 2016 voters from July 13-18, 2016. This survey took place July 13-18, 2016. Respondents

More information

Inside Trump s GOP: Not what you think July National Phone Survey & Factor Analysis from April Battleground Phone Survey.

Inside Trump s GOP: Not what you think July National Phone Survey & Factor Analysis from April Battleground Phone Survey. Inside Trump s GOP: Not what you think July National Phone Survey & Factor Analysis from April Battleground Phone Survey July 2018 Methodology: July national phone survey. Democracy Corps and Greenberg

More information

A Winning Middle Class Reform Government & Politics Message. December 16, 2015

A Winning Middle Class Reform Government & Politics Message. December 16, 2015 A Winning Middle Class Reform Government & Politics Message December 16, 2015 Methodology National Survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place December 5-9, 2015. Respondents who voted in

More information

Public anger about corporate power dominant factor in views on trade & TPP. July 2016

Public anger about corporate power dominant factor in views on trade & TPP. July 2016 Public anger about corporate power dominant factor in views on trade & TPP July 2016 Methodology National survey of 900 likely 2016 voters. This survey took place June 23-28. Respondents who voted in the

More information

Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains. October 2016

Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains. October 2016 Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains October 2016 Methodology National phone survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place October 21-24 among national likely voters. Likely voters

More information

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey Date: April 1, 2016 To: Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey new poll on

More information

How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election. November 8, 2012

How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election. November 8, 2012 How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election November 8, 2012 2 Methodology and Specifications This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

More information

Campaign Shifts the Trade Debate. October 2016

Campaign Shifts the Trade Debate. October 2016 Campaign Shifts the Trade Debate October 2016 Methodology National phone survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place October 21-24 among national likely voters. Likely voters were determined

More information

Growing the Youth Vote

Growing the Youth Vote Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! Growing the Youth Vote www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 388 Market Street Suite

More information

It s the Democrats Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters. January 16, 2015

It s the Democrats Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters. January 16, 2015 It s the Democrats Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters January 16, 2015 Methodology This research was a joint project of Democracy Corps, the Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, and the

More information

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey

Winning with a middle class reform politics and government message Report on a new national survey Date: December 17, 2015 To: Friends of & WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund David Walker, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Winning with a middle class reform politics

More information

Emerson Poll: With No Joe, Clinton Leads Sanders By Wide Margin. Trump Solidifies Support in GOP Field. Carson and Rubio Pull Away From Pack.

Emerson Poll: With No Joe, Clinton Leads Sanders By Wide Margin. Trump Solidifies Support in GOP Field. Carson and Rubio Pull Away From Pack. Emerson Poll: With No Joe, Clinton Leads Sanders By Wide Margin. Trump Solidifies Support in GOP Field. Carson and Rubio Pull Away From Pack. Boston (Oct. 19, 2015): A new poll shows former Secretary of

More information

Democracy Corps/Women's Voices Women Vote Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps/Women's Voices Women Vote Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps/Women's Voices Women Vote Frequency Questionnaire June 10-15, 2014 950 2012 Voters 827 Likely 2014 Voter 463 Rising American Electorate 261 Unmarried Women Q.3 First of all, are you registered

More information

Inside Trump s GOP: not what you think Findings from focus groups, national phone survey, and factor analysis

Inside Trump s GOP: not what you think Findings from focus groups, national phone survey, and factor analysis Date: August 3, 2018 To: From: Friends of Stanley Greenberg and James Carville Nancy Zdunkewiz Inside Trump s GOP: not what you think Findings from focus groups, national phone survey, and factor analysis

More information

Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority

Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority Date: September 23, 2016 To: Progressive community From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund Consolidating Democrats The strategy that gives a governing majority On the

More information

GW POLITICS POLL 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION WAVE 1

GW POLITICS POLL 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION WAVE 1 GW POLITICS POLL 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION WAVE 1 The survey was fielded May 14 30, 2018 with a sample of registered voters. The survey was fielded by YouGov with a sample of registered voters. YouGov recruits

More information

Democracy Corps/Republican Party Project Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps/Republican Party Project Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps/Republican Party Project Frequency Questionnaire July 10-15, 2013 950 Respondents (1200 Unweighted) 389 232 Republicans (567 Unweighted) 94 Independent-Lean Republicans (193 Unweighted)

More information

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll* Trump Leads

More information

Women s Economic Agenda Powerful impact on vote and turnout in Democracy Corps/WVWVAF & VPC National Survey April 8, 2014

Women s Economic Agenda Powerful impact on vote and turnout in Democracy Corps/WVWVAF & VPC National Survey April 8, 2014 Women s Economic Agenda Powerful impact on vote and turnout in 2014 Democracy Corps/WVWVAF & VPC National Survey April 8, 2014 Methodology: cell and demographic change This presentation is based on our

More information

A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason to Participate

A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason to Participate Date: June 29, 2015 To: Friends of and WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Page Gardner, Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund A Powerful Agenda for 2016 Democrats Need to Give Voters a Reason

More information

Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy. July 18, 2011

Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy. July 18, 2011 Breakthrough Economic Message Results of major web survey on the economy July 18, 2011 2 The experiment This presentation is based on a national web survey of 2,000 likely 2012 voters (2,000 weighted)

More information

WVWVAF Battleground Frequency Questionnaire

WVWVAF Battleground Frequency Questionnaire WVWVAF Battleground Frequency Questionnaire June 11-14, 2018 1000 Registered Voters 558 RAE Respondents 261 Working Class Women 465 Diverse States 535 Belt+ States Q.4 First of all, are you registered

More information

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,

More information

Marquette Law School Poll --- February 18-21, 2016

Marquette Law School Poll --- February 18-21, 2016 Marquette Law School Poll --- February 18-21, 2016 S1. May I please speak with the (male/female) adult member of your household, currently at home, age 18 or older, with the most recent birthday? (IF SELECTED

More information

Latino Decisions / America's Voice June State Latino Battleground Survey

Latino Decisions / America's Voice June State Latino Battleground Survey Latino Decisions / America's Voice June 2012 5-State Latino Battleground Survey 1. On the whole, what are the most important issues facing the Hispanic community that you think Congress and the President

More information

******DRAFT***** Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2016 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Survey. Mid April Version

******DRAFT***** Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2016 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Survey. Mid April Version ******DRAFT***** Muhlenberg College/Morning Call 2016 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Survey Key Findings: Mid April Version 1. Donald Trump has built a solid lead over both Senator Ted Cruz

More information

THE VANISHING CENTER OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY APPENDIX

THE VANISHING CENTER OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY APPENDIX APPENDIX Survey Questionnaire with Percentage Distributions of Response All numbers are weighted percentage of response. Figures do not always add up to 100 percent due to rounding. 1. When the government

More information

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire January 10-14, 2013 950 2012 Voters 852 2014 Voters Q.3 First of all, are you registered to vote? Yes... 100 100 No... - - (Refused)... - - (ref:screen1) Q.4 Many

More information

Compared to: Study #2122 June 19-22, Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Compared to: Study #2122 June 19-22, Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district BLOOMBERG POLITICS/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2125 400 Republican likely goers August 23-26, 2015 404 Democratic likely goers 2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin

More information

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY Phone Fax Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll* Cruz and

More information

America s Voice/LD State Battleground Survey, April 2016

America s Voice/LD State Battleground Survey, April 2016 1a. [SPLIT A] On the whole, what are the most important issues facing the [Hispanic/Latino] community that you think Congress and the President should address? Open ended, Pre-code to list, MAY SELECT

More information

Mapping the Republican Brain

Mapping the Republican Brain Date: September 17, 2013 To: Friends of From: Stan Greenberg and James Carville Mapping the Republican Brain Six underlying attitudinal dimensions that run through the consciousness of today's Republican

More information

The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues

The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues The Urgent Policy Agenda for Unmarried Women Unmarried women focused on critical economic issues March 25, 2013 Methodology: cell and demographic change This presentation is based on our latest national

More information

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008

Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 2008 June 8, 07 Rural America Competitive Bush Problems and Economic Stress Put Rural America in play in 08 To: From: Interested Parties Anna Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner William Greener, Greener and

More information

Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight

Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 20101 July 8, 2010 Democracy Corps June Survey: Grim Stability Will Require Race-by-Race Fight July 8, 2010 July Page 8, 2010 2 Methodology This presentation is based primarily

More information

America s Voice/LD 2016 National and Battleground State Poll (Field Dates August 19-30)

America s Voice/LD 2016 National and Battleground State Poll (Field Dates August 19-30) 1. In November, there will be an election for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices. What would you say the chances are that you will vote in November are you absolutely certain you

More information

Center for American Progress Action Fund Survey of the Florida Puerto Rican Electorate

Center for American Progress Action Fund Survey of the Florida Puerto Rican Electorate 1. Which of the following statements about voting in November presidential election describes you best? I will definitely vote... 84% I will probably vote, but not certain right now... 14% I definitely

More information

The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016

The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016 CBS NEWS POLL For release: Thursday, February 18, 2016 7:00 AM EST The Republican Race: Trump Remains on Top He ll Get Things Done February 12-16, 2016 Donald Trump (35%) continues to hold a commanding

More information

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014 Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014 Methodology Three surveys of U.S. voters conducted in late 2013 Two online surveys of voters, respondents reached using recruit-only online panel of adults

More information

2016 GOP Nominating Contest

2016 GOP Nominating Contest 2015 Texas Lyceum Poll Executive Summary 2016 Presidential Race, Job Approval & Economy A September 8-21, 2015 survey of adult Texans shows Donald Trump leading U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz 21-16, former U.S. Secretary

More information

Election Night Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire

Election Night Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire Election Night Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire November 4-7, 2018 1250 Registered Voters (1650 unweighted) 1124 2018 Voter (1508 unweighted) 565 313 Dem Voter (799 unweighted) 277 313 Ind Voter (371

More information

Greenberg Research July National Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire

Greenberg Research July National Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire Greenberg Research July National Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire July 19-26, 2018 1003 Registered Voters 486 Democrats and Democratic-Leaning Independents 395 Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #16027 -- page 1 Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 280 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: January 9-13, 2016 22 respondents

More information

Center for American Progress National Online Post-Election Survey

Center for American Progress National Online Post-Election Survey Center for American Progress National Online Post-Election Survey November 9-14, 2016 2000 Total November 2016 Voters (940 Trump Voters, 960 Clinton Voters) Q.4 Are you currently registered to vote in

More information

2016 NCSU N=879

2016 NCSU N=879 Spring, 2016 NCSU Pack Poll: Big Poll Toplines Report March 13-15 N=879 Completed Response Rate= 20% Margin of sampling error for completed response rate and questions asked of the full sample +/- 3.3%

More information

FINAL RESULTS: National Voter Survey Total Sample Size: 2428, Margin of Error: ±2.0% Interview Dates: November 1-4, 2018

FINAL RESULTS: National Voter Survey Total Sample Size: 2428, Margin of Error: ±2.0% Interview Dates: November 1-4, 2018 FINAL RESULTS: National Voter Survey Total Sample Size: 2428, Margin of Error: ±2.0% Interview Dates: November 1-4, 2018 Language: English and Spanish Respondents: Likely November 2018 voters in 72 competitive

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15462 -- page 1 Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: October 15-18, 2015 28 respondents reached

More information

1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER

1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER 1 WAVE 15 QUESTIONS S AMERICAN TRENDS PANEL WAVE 15 March & WAVE 16 April COMBINED FINAL TOPLINE WAVE 15: March 2 nd March 28 th, WAVE 16: April 5 th May 2 nd, TOTAL N=4,385 1 WEB RESPONDENTS N=3,962 MAIL

More information

Democracy Corps Post Election Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps Post Election Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps Post Election Frequency Questionnaire November 4-7, 2018 454 2018 BG-15 Voter (831 unweighted) 359 2018 BG-12 Voter (666 unweighted) 245 RAE 2018 BG-15 Voter (479 unweighted) 191 RAE 2018

More information

2018 Targets in Trump s GOP

2018 Targets in Trump s GOP 2018 Targets in Trump s GOP August national message web-test to establish targets, strongest messages and attacks September 2018 Methodology: August national web-survey of Republicans. Democracy Corps

More information

WEEKLY LATINO TRACKING POLL 2018: WAVE 1 9/05/18

WEEKLY LATINO TRACKING POLL 2018: WAVE 1 9/05/18 WEEKLY LATINO TRACKING POLL 2018: WAVE 1 9/05/18 1. Many people are busy and don t get a chance to vote in every election. Thinking ahead to the November 2018 election, what would you say the chances are

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15313 -- page 1 Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: July 26-30, 2015 33 respondents reached on

More information

AFT Frequency Questionnaire

AFT Frequency Questionnaire AFT Frequency Questionnaire March 25 - April 2, 2018 1000 Registered Voters 119 Battleground Voters 495 Democratic Voters 414 Republican Voters Q.4 First of all, are you registered to vote at this address?

More information

Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate

Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate Date: March 20, 2009 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann Obama, Democrats Well Positioned For Budget Debate National

More information

Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton and Trump Poised to win Florida; Cruz and Rubio in Battle for Second.

Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton and Trump Poised to win Florida; Cruz and Rubio in Battle for Second. March 12, 2016 Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number: 561-297-3020 Florida Atlantic University Poll: Clinton and Trump Poised to win Florida; Cruz and Rubio in Battle for Second. A new Florida Atlantic

More information

November 18, Media Contact: Jim Hellegaard Phone number:

November 18, Media Contact: Jim Hellegaard Phone number: November 18, 2015 Media Contact: Jim Hellegaard Phone number: 561-319-2233 Email: jhellegaard@fau.edu Florida Atlantic University Poll: Trump Laps Field in Florida GOP Primary, Clinton Dominates in Dem

More information

In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down

In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down February 12, 2015 In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down Summary of Key Findings 1. Virginia voters like

More information

January 19, Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number:

January 19, Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number: January 19, 2018 Media Contact: James Hellegaard Phone number: 561-297-3020 Florida Atlantic University Poll: Trump Surges in Sunshine State, Bernie Cuts into Clintons lead in Dem Primary. Grayson (D)

More information

President Obama s Political Project

President Obama s Political Project Date: February 13, 0 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Stanley B. Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann President Obama s Political Project National survey points

More information

GOP leads on economy, Democrats on health care, immigration

GOP leads on economy, Democrats on health care, immigration FOR RELEASE JUNE 20, 2018 Voters More Focused on Control of Congress and the President Than in Past Midterms GOP leads on economy, Democrats on health care, immigration FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll

More information

The Role of the Rising American Electorate in the 2012 Election

The Role of the Rising American Electorate in the 2012 Election Date: November 9, 2012 To: From: Interested Parties Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund; Stanley B. Greenberg, Democracy Corps/GQRR; Erica Seifert, Democracy Corps; David Walker, GQRR

More information

Likely Iowa Caucus Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security

Likely Iowa Caucus Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security Likely Iowa Caucus Voters Attitudes Toward Social Security Copyright 2016 AARP AARP Research 601 E Street NW Washington, DC 20049 Reprinting with Permission AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization,

More information

Subject: Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson

Subject: Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling To: Interested Parties Subject: Sanders leads in Wisconsin; GOP Race Close; VA Privatization Issue Hurts Johnson Date: 3-31-16 A new Public Policy Polling

More information

Interested Parties From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. To: November 9, 2011

Interested Parties From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. To: November 9, 2011 November 9, 2011 Choice Can Help President Obama Win Back Women Defectors Key Findings From a Survey of Women in Battleground States Who Voted for President Obama in 2008 But Are Not Supporting Him or

More information

Respondents: Likely 2020 Democratic Primary Voters/Caucusers Nationwide with 250 oversample for African Americans, and 300 oversample for Latinos.

Respondents: Likely 2020 Democratic Primary Voters/Caucusers Nationwide with 250 oversample for African Americans, and 300 oversample for Latinos. FINAL RESULTS: National Primary Voter Survey Sample Size: 1200 base + 550 oversample Margin of Error: ±2.8% on base sample Interview Dates: March 7-10, 2019 Methodology: Online Panel Language: English

More information

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: January 29 - February 2 Sample: 800 Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire 410 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 390 Likely Republican

More information

Trump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015

Trump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Thursday, December 10, 2015 7:00 am EST Trump Back on Top, Cruz Climbs to Second December 4-8, 2015 With his highest level of support yet in CBS News polls, Donald

More information

The Budget Battle and AIG

The Budget Battle and AIG The Budget Battle and AIG Democracy Corps The surveys This presentation is based primarily on a national Democracy Corps survey of 1,000 2008 voters (834 landline, 166 cell phone weighted; 880 landline,

More information

Emerson College Poll: Iowa Leaning For Trump 44% to 41%. Grassley, Coasting to a Blowout, Likely to Retain Senate Seat.

Emerson College Poll: Iowa Leaning For Trump 44% to 41%. Grassley, Coasting to a Blowout, Likely to Retain Senate Seat. November 4, 2016 Media Contact: Pr. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor Spencer_Kimball@emerson.edu 617-824- 8737 Emerson College Poll: Iowa Leaning For Trump 44% to 41%. Grassley, Coasting

More information

Rising American Electorate & Working Class Women Strike Back. November 9, 2018

Rising American Electorate & Working Class Women Strike Back. November 9, 2018 Rising American Electorate & Working Class Strike Back November 9, 2018 Methodology National phone poll with oversample in 15-state presidential & 2018 battleground. An election phone poll of 1,250 registered

More information

Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%)

Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%) P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Continues to Lead Big in Michigan (Trump 41% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 16% - Kasich 11%) EAST LANSING,

More information

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. April New York Questionnaire

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. April New York Questionnaire Residents: n=2,521, MOE +/- 2.0% Registered Voters: n=1,987, MOE +/- 2.2% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll New York Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=477, MOE +/- 4.5% Likely Republican Primary

More information

GenForward March 2019 Toplines

GenForward March 2019 Toplines Toplines The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults GenForward is a survey associated with the University of Chicago Interviews: 02/08-02/25/2019 Total N: 2,134

More information

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study # page 1 HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES Study #15564 -- page 1 Interviews: 1,000 Adults, including 350 respondents with a cell phone only and Date: December 6-9, 2015 32 respondents reached

More information

National Tracking Poll

National Tracking Poll National Tracking Poll Project: 180724 N Size: 1991 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report July 13-14, 2018 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you

More information

Fusion Millennials Poll #4: Emotional Responses to Candidates

Fusion Millennials Poll #4: Emotional Responses to Candidates Jan. 22, 2016 Fusion Millennials Poll #4: Emotional Responses to Candidates Seven in 10 young adults respond negatively to the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency, including 54 percent who say they d

More information

The real mandate and looking forward after this election. November 15, 2012

The real mandate and looking forward after this election. November 15, 2012 The real mandate and looking forward after this election November 15, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on several post-election surveys conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

More information

PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Survey Total = 2,033 (813 Landline, 1,220 Cell phone) March 30 April 3, 2016

PRRI/The Atlantic April 2016 Survey Total = 2,033 (813 Landline, 1,220 Cell phone) March 30 April 3, 2016 7, PRRI/The Atlantic Survey Total = 2,033 (813 Landline, 1,220 Cell phone) March 30 3, Q.1 Now we d like your views on some political leaders. Would you say your overall opinion of [INSERT; RANDOMIZE LIST]

More information

MCLAUGHLIN & ASSOCIATES NATIONAL OMNIBUS March 23, 2016

MCLAUGHLIN & ASSOCIATES NATIONAL OMNIBUS March 23, 2016 MCLAUGHLIN & ASSOCIATES NATIONAL OMNIBUS March 23, 2016 1. FOR THE 2016 NOVEMBER GENERAL ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT, HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU SAY YOU ARE TO VOTE? VERY LIKELY 87.8 SOMEWHAT LIKELY 12.2 2. DO YOU

More information

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire February 11-14, 2012 1000 Likely Voters Q.5 First of all, are you registered to vote? Yes... 100 No...- (Refused)...- (ref:screen1) Q.6 Many people weren't able

More information

Wide and growing divides in views of racial discrimination

Wide and growing divides in views of racial discrimination FOR RELEASE MARCH 01, 2018 The Generation Gap in American Politics Wide and growing divides in views of racial discrimination FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research

More information

A Pivotal Political Moment on Health Care. July 31, 2012

A Pivotal Political Moment on Health Care. July 31, 2012 A Pivotal Political Moment on Health Care July 31, 2012 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and Women s

More information

Catholic voters presidential preference, issue priorities, and opinion of certain church policies

Catholic voters presidential preference, issue priorities, and opinion of certain church policies Catholic voters presidential preference, issue priorities, and opinion of certain church policies This memo highlights the findings from a national public opinion survey conducted for Catholics for Choice

More information

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll March 2016 Michigan Questionnaire

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll March 2016 Michigan Questionnaire Residents: n=2570, MOE +/-1.9% Registered Voters: n=2229, MOE +/-2.1% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Michigan Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=877, MOE +/-3.3% Likely Republican Primary Voters:

More information

2012 Weekly Political Tracking Poll August 27-November 5, 2012

2012 Weekly Political Tracking Poll August 27-November 5, 2012 S4. Many people are busy and don t get a chance to vote in every election. Thinking ahead to the November 2012 election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the election for U.S. President

More information

American Dental Association

American Dental Association American Dental Association May 2, 2016 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1 Heading into the Election Year SLIDE 2 Direction of country remains strongly negative for over a decade. Right Track Wrong Direction WT 80

More information

455 Democratic likely caucusgoers 1,838 active registered voter contacts. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

455 Democratic likely caucusgoers 1,838 active registered voter contacts. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. DES MOINES REGISTER/CNN/MEDIACOM IOWA POLL SELZER & COMPANY Study #2182 December 10-13, 2018 450 istered Republicans 503 registered Republican contacts Margin of error: ±4.6 percentage points weighted

More information

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire April 22-26, 2009 1000 2008 Voters (1000 Unweighted) 851 Likely 2010 Voters (867 Unweighted) Q.3 First of all, are you registered to vote? Yes... 100 100 No...-

More information

America s Voice/LD 2016 National and Battleground State Poll (Field Dates August 19-30)

America s Voice/LD 2016 National and Battleground State Poll (Field Dates August 19-30) 1. In November, there will be an election for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices. What would you say the chances are that you will vote in November are you absolutely certain you

More information

NATIONAL: TRUMP HOLDS NATIONAL LEAD

NATIONAL: TRUMP HOLDS NATIONAL LEAD Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Wednesday, 20, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters

Toplines. UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Toplines UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of MA Likely Primary Voters Field Dates: February 19 - February 25 Sample: 891 Registered Voters in Massachusetts 400 Likely Democratic Primary Voters 292 Likely Republican

More information

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps Frequency Questionnaire March 15-18, 2010 1,016 2008 Voters 850 Likely Voters (871 unweighted) 1 166 Drop-Off Voters (145 unweighted) 2 Q.3 First of all, are you registered to vote? Likely

More information

Democracy Corps and Roosevelt Frequency Questionnaire

Democracy Corps and Roosevelt Frequency Questionnaire Democracy Corps and Roosevelt Frequency Questionnaire July 13-18, 2016 900 Likely Voters Q.4 First of all, are you registered to vote at this address? Yes... 100 No...- (Don't know/refused)...- (ref:screen1)

More information

Kansas: Sam Brownback s Focus on Restricting Reproductive Health Care Access Can Cost Him in The Race for Governor

Kansas: Sam Brownback s Focus on Restricting Reproductive Health Care Access Can Cost Him in The Race for Governor June 16, 2014 Kansas: Sam Brownback s Focus on Restricting Reproductive Health Care Access Can Cost Him in The Race for Governor New NARAL Pro-Choice America Poll Shows That Broad-Based Communications

More information

CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE

CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE Date: August 29, 2008 To: From: Friends of Democracy Corps Stan Greenberg and James Carville, Democracy Corps Mark Feierstein and Ana Iparraguirre, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner CONSOLIDATING THE HISPANIC VOTE

More information

Ready to Change America

Ready to Change America Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps Youth for the Win! www.greenbergresearch.com Washington, DC California 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 388 Market Street Suite 860 San Francisco,

More information

Unique web panel shows how RAE really delivered December, 2018

Unique web panel shows how RAE really delivered December, 2018 Unique web panel shows how RAE really delivered 2018 December, 2018 Innovative new research program BATTLEGROUND PHONE POLL 4 phone polls in 2018: April 5-12 June 11-14 September 4-10 November 4-7 1,000

More information