Healthcare and the 2012 Election. October 17 th, 2012

Transcription

1 Healthcare and the 2012 Election October 17 th, 2012

2 5 keys to Winning the White House

3 Perceptions of the Economy

4 Consumer Confidence has already taken longer to recover than at any time in post-wwii history. October 2012: 83.1 Dropped Below 65 Months Before Rose Above months months months months and counting The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

5 President Obama s fortunes will be closely tied to perceptions of the economy and consumer confidence... and he has a ways to go to be secure. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Average Among Incumbent Winners^ Today* Average Among Incumbent Losers^ ^Includes elections from 1956 to *October 12, 2012 The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

6 #2 The Comfort Gap

7 Voters are currently more comfortable with a known entity in the White House. Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if X were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable? 50% 50% 57% 43% 22% Very Comfortable 37% Very Comfortable Mitt Romney Barack Obama Comfortable Not Comfortable The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

8 Image Ratings of Candidates in Election Years Pos. Neg. Diff. October 2000 George W. Bush 53% 30% +23% October 1992 Ross Perot 47% 25% +22% October 1996 Bill Clinton 54% 33% +21% October 1992 Bill Clinton 51% 34% +17% October 2008 Barack Obama 52% 35% +17% October 2000 Al Gore 49% 37% +12% September 2012 Barack Obama 52% 42% +10% October 2004 George W. Bush 50% 44% +6% October 2008 John McCain 43% 39% +4% October 1996 Bob Dole 40% 38% +2% October 2004 John Kerry 44% 43% +1% September 2012 Mitt Romney 41% 44% -3% October 1992 George H. W. Bush 34% 52% -18% The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

9 Voters hesitations about Romney often have roots in this comfort gap: His wealth/status His experience/foreign policy bona fides Women s and social issues Misstatements The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

10 #3 The Get er Done Guy

11 There is very little confidence in elected officials ability to solve the nation s problems, especially among the voters who will decide this election. How much confidence do you have in elected officials to solve the problems facing our country? 64% 70% 49% 50% 36% 29% All Voters Great Deal/Some Independents (18%) Not Much/Not At All Undecided for President (14%) The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

12 For the first time in decades, we now have voters saying they prefer same party government. Divided Government Trend 39% 47% 43% 44% 47% 48% 41% 41% 52% 39% October 1992 June 1996 October 2000 October 2008 September 2012 Same Party Better Different Parties Better The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

13 Americans are looking for that can-do sense in the debates. In the upcoming presidential debates, which one of the following would be more appealing to you If a candidate agreed with some part of his opponents' agenda and pledged to work across party lines to make it happen If a candidate pointed out a problem in his opponent's agenda, and said what he would do differently The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

14 Voters hesitations about Obama boil down to whether he can change the direction of the country in a 2nd term. They ask what will be different this time on Creating jobs Changing the political tone/gridlock in Washington Reining in spending/deficit The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

15 #4 Where You Win

16 THE ROAD TO 270 FOR ROMNEY: THE PLAN In addition to winning the states John McCain won in 2008, Romney will win in November if he 3 Wins back the three historically GOP states. 2 Wins the two largest swing states Bush won in 00 and Wins any one of the wild-card states. IN 11 OH 18 NH 4 NM 5 MN 10 IA 6 NV 6 NC 15 VA 13 FL 29 CO 9 MI 16 WI 10 PA EVs 266 EVs 270 EVs The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

17 THE ROAD TO 270 FOR OBAMA In addition to winning the states John Kerry won in 2004, Obama will win in November if he wins Western Route Florida Route Southern Route Midwest Route NM 5 OH 18 IA 6 CO 9 NV 6 FL 29 NC 15 VA 13 IA EVs 275 EVs 274 EVs 270 EVs The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

18 Nearly $760 million has been spent on TV ads so far in target states. States with the highest TV ad spending Amount Spent on National Ads: $11 Million+ $36M NH $52M NV $72M CO $1.2M NM $4.4M MN $61.8M IA $28M WI $10M MI $19M PA $159M OH $133M VA $69.6M NC $166M FL *Data from a National Journal, Updated October 5, 2012 The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

19 Most recently released statewide polling data: Arizona Colorado Florida Michigan Ohio Virginia Wisconsin % 44% 48% 47% 49% 48% 52% 51% 45% 46% 48% 47% 49% 51% MR BO MR BO MR BO MR BO MR BO MR BO MR BO PPP 10/1-10/3 JM Won Denver Post/ SurveyUSA 10/9-10/10 BO Won Gravis Marketing 10/13-10/14 BO Won Rasmussen 10/11 BO Won PPP 10/12-10/13 BO Won ARG 10/12-10/14 BO Won Rasmussen 10/9 BO Won The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

20 #5 Who Votes

21 Obama appears to be maintaining his potential winning coalition: Ages African Americans Hispanics/Latinos White College Graduate Women The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

22 In general, election interest is lower than in 2008 among some core pro-obama groups. Interest In Election %9-10 Late September 2008 Late September 2012 Net Difference All 79% 73% -6% Men 78% 72% -6% Women 79% 75% -4% % 52% -20% % 74% -4% % 87% +2% % 87% +6% Democrats 83% 73% -10% Independents 70% 60% -10% Republicans 79% 79% + 0% White 78% 73% -5% African American 89% 81% -8% Hispanic/Latino 77% 59% -18% Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a "ten" means that you are very interested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all interested. You may choose any number from one to ten. The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

23 The percentage of white voters has been dropping over the last five presidential elections. Whites 87% 83% 81% 77% 74% The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

24 Health care and the 2012 Election

25 Health care is second only to the economy as a top issue in this presidential campaign. There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? The Economy Ranked By Combined Choice 46% 72% Health Care Social Issues and Values Social Security and Medicare Foreign Policy and the Middle East The Federal Deficit 10% 15% 12% 6% 7% 28% 25% 25% 19% 17% Terrorism 1% 7% The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

26 Voters currently lean toward Obama in their confidence in handling health care and Medicare. Now I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would be better on that issue. If you think that both would be equally good or that neither would be good on a particular issue, just say so. Who do you think would be better when it comes to Romney Obama D/S The federal budget deficit 43% 34% +9% Dealing with the economy 45% 42% +3% Dealing with taxes 41% 46% -5% Handling foreign policy 40% 46% -6% Dealing with health care 40% 49% -9% Dealing with Medicare 36% 48% -12% Dealing with immigration 31% 45% -14% The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

27 Obamacare received its highest rating ever after the Supreme Court decision, but more people still say it is a bad idea. 50% 45% 40% 44% 40% 35% 30% 25% Apr 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Dec 2009 Jan 10-14, 2010 Jan 23-25, 2010 Mar 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Oct 2010 Jan 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 Good Idea Bad Idea *Data from a national NBC/WSJ poll conducted July 18-22, N=1,000 registered voters. From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

28 What Voters Want to Keep American voters say the one or two BEST parts of Obamacare they would not want to see changed are Covering individuals with pre-existing conditions Coverage for everyone, regardless of ethnicity, income, age, gender, etc. Allowing children to stay on their parents health insurance until they reach twenty-six Other mentions include the affordability of the plan, and its impact on lowering future health care costs. Some believe the quality of care will improve and changing any parts of the plan will adversely affect future quality of care. OCTOBER

29 What Voters Want to Change Americans say the one or two WORST parts of Obamacare they would most want to see changed are The individual mandate/being forced by the government to purchase something Fining individuals and companies for not purchasing insurance (many question how working people will be able to afford insurance or the fine) Cost to small businesses/impact on them and their employees Other concerns: funding birth control and abortions for women and having a committee decide procedures and treatments rather than physicians and patients. OCTOBER

30 The topic of health care is 4 th on the list of advertising hits (after the economy, taxes and the deficit). # of Ads Ads mention Economy 530, 387 Ads mention Health Care 194,600 Anti-Insurance Companies 24,535 Republican Democrat Diff Total Health Care Ads 41% 59% -18% ObamaCare 79% 21% +58% Medicare 23% 77% -54% *Data from a CMAG/Kanta Media analysis The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

31 The health care fight has become largely about Medicare as seniors rate it tops. The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

32 Most voters have not heard enough about the Ryan plan yet to have formed an opinion. There is currently a proposal to change how Medicare would work so seniors being enrolled in the program ten years from now would be given a guaranteed payment some call a voucher from the federal government. Seniors would either purchase one of several government approved coverage plans from a private health insurance company or pay somewhat more to stay in the traditional Medicare program. Do you think this is a good idea, a bad idea, or do you not know enough about this to have an opinion at this time? 30% Bad Idea 15% Good Idea 51% No Opinion 4% Not Sure *Data from a national NBC/WSJ poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted August 16-20,2012. The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

33 A brief message test, though, breaks in Obama s direction. Barack Obama who says this proposal is a bad idea because it would end Medicare as we know it by turning it into a voucher system giving seniors a set amount of money to pay for their health care costs and leaving them to personally cover costs above this amount. Mitt Romney who says this proposal is a good idea because it would strengthen Medicare and reduce government costs for Medicare by giving future seniors more control over their own health care dollars and a choice between traditional Medicare and a variety of private plans. Agree With More *Data from a national NBC/WSJ poll of 1,000 registered voters conducted August 16-20,2012. The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

34 Californians and Health Insurance

35 Californians are generally satisfied with how the health care system affects them personally. Health Care System Meeting Needs Total Yes 70% Total No 29% Not So Strongly No 9% No So Strongly Yes 17% Strongly No 20% Strongly Yes 53% Undecided 1% Generally speaking, is the current health care system meeting the needs of you and your family? The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

36 They are divided on what is to blame for rising health care costs. Health insurance companies having to increase premiums because of higher costs of prescription drugs, lawsuits that drive up medical liability insurance rates, and the over-use of emergency rooms by the uninsured 49% The profits of the health insurance industry 35% If you had to choose, which ONE do you think is a better explanation for higher health care costs? The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

37 Political ideology bears a strong relationship to views on rising costs. 66% View of Rising Health Care Costs by Ideology +46% +5% -13% 43% 38% 35% 48% 20% Conservatives Moderates Liberals Higher Health Costs Insurance Industry Profits If you had to choose, which ONE do you think is a better explanation for higher health care costs? The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

38 The most fruitful dynamic to combat rate regulation is for voters to understand the costly bureaucracy it creates. They want their doctor making decisions about their healthcare- NOT a bureaucrat or politician. The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

39 Questions? The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER

40 PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES 214 N. Fayette Street Alexandria, VA Lori Weigel Partner The Mood of America and a Preview of the 2012 Elections OCTOBER