THE POLITICO-GWU BATTLEGROUND POLL

Transcription

1 THE POLITICO-GWU BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,0 Registered Likely Voters

2 Do you think things in the country are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track? 67% 56% 51% 46% 51% 49% 49% 47% 46% 46% 53% 57% 55% 54% 52% 54% 62% 60% 51% 56% 55% 62% 34% 36% 36% 39% 39% 38% 39% 28% 32% 31% 38% 34% 36% 28% 93 Dec- 97 Aug Mar- May- Nov- 01 Sep- 03 Right Direction 34% 36% 36% 49% 39% 46% 39% 38% 39% 28% 32% 31% 38% 34% 36% 28% Wrong Track 56% 51% 46% 51% 49% 47% 46% 53% 57% 55% 54% 52% 54% 67% 60% 62% 51% 56% 55% 62% Mar Aug- 04 Oct- 04 Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Feb- 06 Sep- 06 Jul- 09 Dec Sep- 10

3 If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate in your Congressional district? GOP DEM Republicans 87% 6% Independents 29% 24% Democrats 4% 87% 15% Republican Undecided Democrat

4 If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate in your Congressional district? 49% 46% 46% 44% 44% 39% 39% 38% 39% 39% 39% 39% 37% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 39% 35% Aug Dec- 97 Aug Mar- May- Aug- Republican 39% 39% 39% 38% 35% 37% Democrat 39% 38% 39% 39% 37% 37% 39% 39% 39% 44% 44% 46% 46% 49% Nov Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Feb- 06 Sep- 06 Jul- 09 Dec Sep- 10

5 Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will be the majority party in the U.S. House after the November 2010 elections? Do you think it will be the Republican Party or the Democratic Party? 45% GOP DEM 36% Republicans 73% 13% Independents 23% Democrats 20% 64% 19% Republican Undecided Democrat

6 Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will be the majority party in the U.S. Senate after the November 2010 elections? Do you think it will be the Republican Party or the Democratic Party? 46% GOP DEM 37% Republicans 71% 15% Independents 37% 36% Democrats 26% 59% 17% Republican Undecided Democrat

7 Now, I would like to read you a list of issues that some people from this part of the country have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me which one issue you think is most important for Congress to work on? The economy and jobs 46% 18% Government spending 13% 13% Health care reform 8% 16% The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 7% 12% Retirement and Social Security 5% 8% Illegal immigration 4% 9% Taxes 4% 8% Terrorism and homeland security 3% 7% Reforming Wall Street 2% 5% 1st Issue 2nd Issue

8 How would you rate the job Congress is doing this year? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing? Approve Disapprove 25% Republicans 9% 86% Independents 18% 65% 64% Democrats 44% 11% Approve Unsure Disapprove

9 How would you rate the job Congress is doing this year? Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing? MIDTERM TRENDS % 62% 57% 68% 68% 64% 37% 32% 34% 24% 24% 25% 7% 9% 8% 11% 6% 8% Feb-06 Sep-06 Jul-09 Dec /9/2010 Approve 37% 32% 34% 24% 24% 25% Disapprove 56% 62% 57% 68% 68% 64% Unsure 7% 6% 9% 8% 8% 11%

10 Thinking specifically about Democrats in Congress, do you approve or disapprove of the job the Democrats in Congress are doing? Approve Republicans 8% Disapprove 87% 57% 34% Independents 24% 61% Democrats 65% 24% 9% Approve Unsure Disapprove

11 Thinking specifically about Republicans in Congress, do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing? Approve Republicans Disapprove 26% Independents 15% 59% Democrats 15% 73% 58% 16% Approve Unsure Disapprove

12 How would you rate the job Barack Obama is doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing? Approve Strongly Disapprove Strongly 27% 38% 48% 45% 7% Approve Unsure Disapprove

13 Whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, what is your impression of Barack Obama as a person? Do you approve or disapprove of him? 65% 25% 11% Approve Unsure Disapprove

14 NAME ID Barack Obama 56% 54% 53% 44% 3% 5% 3% Dec /9/2010 Favorable 56% 54% 53% Unfavorable 44% No Opinion 3% 5% 3%

15 NAME ID Joe Biden 49% 45% 46% 8% 9% 11% 3% 3% 3% Dec /9/2010 Favorable 49% 45% 46% Unfavorable No Opinion 8% 9% 11% Never Heard Of 3% 3% 3%

16 NAME ID Nancy Pelosi 54% 52% 52% 30% 32% 31% 9% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% Dec /9/2010 Favorable 30% 32% 31% Unfavorable 54% 52% 52% No Opinion 8% 9% 10% Never Heard Of 9% 8% 7%

17 NAME ID John Boehner 52% 45% 17% 17% 14% 21% 19% 16% 10 9/9/2010 Favorable 14% 16% Unfavorable 17% 21% No Opinion 17% 19% Never Heard Of 52% 45%

18 NAME ID Cont d. Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell Harry Reid 19% 37% 16% 28% Mitch McConnell 16% 20% 26% 38% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard of

19 If the 2012 election for President were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote the Republican candidate, or Barack Obama, the Democrat? 46% GOP Obama Republicans 91% 4% Independents 33% 23% Democrats 6% 88% 12% Republican Undecided Obama

20 ISSUE HANDLING

21 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Turning the economy around 96 35% Dec % Aug % 99 39% May % 37% 02 39% 50% 38% 51% 48% 46% 44% 47% 33% 44% 47% 39% Republicans 36% 46% 38% 44% 33% 39% Democrats 35% 37% 39% 37% 39% 50% 51% 46% 48% 47% 44% 47% 37% 02 Feb- 06 Sep Jul- 07 Jul- 09 Dec % Sep- 10

22 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Controlling wasteful spending 49% 52% 49% 48% 45% 45% 44% 44% 30% 29% 29% 38% 35% 36% 33% 33% 32% 32% 28% Mar Mar-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jul-07 Jul-09 Dec Sep-10 Republicans 49% 45% 52% 38% 35% 36% 33% 44% 44% Democrats 30% 29% 29% 45% 49% 48% 33% 32% 32% 28%

23 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Holding down taxes 52% 48% 47% 45% 46% 30% 30% 27% 44% 52% 51% 50% 48% 45% 57% 54% 53%52%53% 49% 49% 52% 38% 36% 36% 36% 34% 34% 32% 33% 31% 30% 29% 29% 28% 26% 49% 47% 44% 55% 56% 53% 53% 29% 46% 44% 28% 28% 26% 93 Dec- 93 Aug Dec- 97 Aug May Republicans 52% 45% 48% 47% 46% 44% 52% 51% 50% 48% 45% 57% 54% 53% 52% 53% 49% 49% 52% 49% 47% 46% 53% 55% 56% 53% Democrats 30% 30% 27% 26% 32% 31% 29% 30% 34% 33% 36% 28% 29% 34% 38% 36% 36% 44% 44% 29% 28% 28% 26% 02 Sep- 03 Mar Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Feb- 06 Sep Jul- 07 Jul- 09 Dec Sep- 10

24 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Sharing your values 45% 38% 34% 33% 45% 39% 35% 38% 35% 39% 48% 37% 44% 49% 48% 46% 46% 45% 45% 44% 45% 45% 39% 39% Aug Dec- 97 Aug May Republicans 38% 33% 39% 48% 45% 45% 46% 45% 44% 39% Democrats 45% 34% 45% 35% 38% 35% 39% 37% 44% 49% 48% 46% 45% 39% 02 Sep- 03 Mar Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Feb- 06 Jul- 09 Dec Sep- 10

25 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Creating jobs 55% 32% 93 32% Dec % 34% Aug % 95 30% Dec % Aug % 37% 31% 02 47% 34% 02 51% 35% 52% 54% 37% 48% 37% 54% 49% 51% 55% 37% 46% 39% 38% 39% 39% Republicans 32% 32% 34% 38% 30% 31% 37% 34% 35% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% Democrats 55% 49% 49% 44% 47% 51% 54% 52% 48% 54% 49% 51% 55% 46% 39% Sep- 03 Mar Mar- 05 Oct- 05 Sep Jul Sep- 10

26 Who will better handle this issue, Republicans in Congress or Democrats in Congress: Controlling the deficit 49% 34% 35% 31% 51% 26% 47% 30% 38% 37% 51% 38% 45% 36% 45% 28% 93 Dec-93 Aug Dec Jul Sep-10 Republicans 34% 35% 51% 47% 38% 37% 38% 45% 45% Democrats 49% 31% 26% 30% 51% 36% 28%

27 The economic stimulus legislation passed by President Obama and Congress is working. 54% YES Republicans 9% NO 86% 38% Independents 32% 52% Democrats 68% 24% 8% Yes Unsure No

28 Who or what do you think is most responsible for the current state of the national economy? George W. Bush 25% Large financial firms 20% The US Congress Barack Obama Global economic forces The normal economic cycle 15% 11% 10% 8% Taxes Terrorism and homeland security Reforming Wall Street 4% 3% 2%

29 Thinking about the economy, how would you rate your personal economic situation? 38% 38% 15% 7% Excellent Good Just Fair Poor

30 Now, thinking one more time about the elections this fall. I am going to read you several sources that people use to get news. For each one, please tell me if yes, you do use this source or no, you do not use this source to get news about the elections this fall. Cable TV news channels like CNN, FOX News, or MSNBC 80% 19% National broadcast TV news channels like ABC, NBC, or CBS 71% 28% Local TV news 74% 25% Newspapers or newspaper websites 76% 23% Yes No

31 Now, thinking one more time about the elections this fall. I am going to read you several sources that people use to get news. For each one, please tell me if yes, you do use this source or no, you do not use this source to get news about the elections this fall. Independent websites or blogs 31% 69% Conversations with friends and family 74% 25% Radio programming 52% 48% Political advertisements 31% 67% Yes No