NABPAC 2016 Biennial Post Election Conference

Transcription

1 The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2016 NABPAC Post Election Conference NABPAC 2016 Biennial Post Election Conference PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser, Moore Information November 17, 2016

2 Election Recap THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 2

3 Voter Turnout Key Subgroups Gender Men 47% 48% Women 53% 52% Age % 19% % 25% % 40% % 15% Ethnicity White 72% 70% Black 13% 12% Hispanic/Latino 10% 11% Asian 3% 4% Income Less than $50K 41% 36% $50K $100K 31% 31% More than $100K 28% 33% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 3

4 Voter Turnout Key Subgroups (Continued) Party Democrat 38% 37% Republican 32% 33% Independent 29% 31% Political philosophy Liberal 25% 26% Moderate 41% 39% Conservative 35% 35% Religious affiliation Protestant 53% 52% Catholic 25% 23% Jewish NA 3% Other 7% 8% None 12% 15% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 4

5 Vote by Gender (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Gender Men (48%) Women (52%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 5

6 Vote by Ethnicity (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Ethnicity White (70%) Black (12%) Hispanic/Latino (11%) Asian (4%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 6

7 Vote by Gender/Ethnicity (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Gender/ethnicity White men (34%) White women (37%) Black men (5%) Black women (7%) Hispanic/Latino men (5%) Hispanic/Latino women (6%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 7

8 Vote by Party/Gender (NET GOP) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Party/gender Democratic men (14%) 77 Democratic women (23%) 82 Republican men (17%) +84 Republican women (16%) +81 Independent men (17%) +14 Independent women (14%) 4 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 8

9 Vote by Education (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Education *High school or less (18%) 3 +6 Some college (32%) 1 +9 College grad (4 years) (32%) +4 4 Post grad (18%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 9 * High school grad in 2012

10 Vote by Political Philosophy (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Political philosophy Liberal (26%) Moderate (39%) Conservative (35%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 10

11 Vote by Religious Affiliation (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Religious affiliation Protestant (52%) Catholic (23%) 2 +7 Jewish (3%) NA 47 Other (8%) None (15%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 11

12 Vote by Union Household (NET GOP) 2012 (Romney/Obama) 2016 (Trump/Clinton) Union household Yes (18%) 18 8 No (82%) 1 +3 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 12

13 Issues THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 13

14 Decision on Vote Timing 80% When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Clinton Trump 60% 49% 51% 46% 40% 39% 20% 0% In the last month (26%) Before that (73%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 14

15 Candidate Qualities 100% 80% 60% Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? 83% 90% 66% 58% Clinton Trump 40% 26% 35% 20% 14% 8% 0% Can bring change (39%) Right experience (21%) Good judgement (20%) Cares about me (15%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 15

16 Importance of Supreme Court Appointments 80% In deciding your vote for president, were appointments to the Supreme Court Clinton 60% 40% 41% 56% 48% 47% 50% 55% 41% 39% Trump 20% 0% Most important factor (21%) Important factor (48%) Minor factor (14%) Not a factor at all (14%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 16

17 Feelings about the Federal Government 80% Which best describes your feelings about the way the federal government is working? 76% Clinton 60% 58% Trump 40% 36% 20% 20% 0% Enthusiastic or satisfied (29%) Dissatisfied or angry (69%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 17

18 Actions of Next President Should the next president 100% 80% 91% 83% 70% Clinton Trump 60% 40% 20% 5% 13% 23% 0% Continue Obama's policies (28%) Be more conservative (48%) Be more liberal (17%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 18

19 Opinion of Clinton and Trump Do you have a favorable opinion of 100% 98% 98% Clinton 80% Trump 60% 49% 40% 29% 20% 0% 1% 1% Only Clinton favorable (41%) Only Trump favorable (36%) Both unfavorable (18%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 19

20 Is Clinton/Trump Qualified? 100% Do you think the presidential candidates are qualified to serve as president? 99% 93% Clinton 80% 70% Trump 69% 60% 40% 22% 20% 15% 0% 2% 1% Both are (5%) Only Clinton is (46%) Only Trump is (33%) Neither is (14%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 20

21 Which Candidate Has Right Temperament? 100% 80% 60% Do you think the presidential candidates have the temperament to serve effectively as president? 77% 90% 98% Clinton Trump 71% 40% 20% 0% 19% Both do (6%) 5% Only Clinton does (49%) 2% Only Trump does (29%) 12% Neither do (14%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 21

22 Clinton s Use of Private 100% 80% Does Hillary Clinton's use of private while Secretary of State bother you? 92% Clinton 87% 88% Trump 68% 60% 40% 26% 20% 7% 7% 5% 0% A lot (45%) Some (17%) Not much (17%) Not at all (19%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 22

23 Handling the Economy Who would better handle the economy? 100% 96% 94% Clinton 80% Trump 60% 40% 20% 0% 1% Hillary Clinton (46%) Donald Trump (49%) 3% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 23

24 Handling the Economy Key States Who would better handle the economy? Clinton Trump 60% 40% 49% 46% 48% 46% 52% 50% 44% 43% 51% 48% 49% 49% 47% 45% 50% 48% 47% 48% 41% 53% 51% 47% 54% 43% 20% 0% National CO FL IA ME MI NC NH NV OH VA WI THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 24

25 Opinion of the GOP Is your opinion of the Republican Party 100% 80% 86% 73% Clinton Trump 60% 40% 20% 11% 20% 0% Favorable (40%) Unfavorable (55%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 25

26 Opinion of the Democratic Party Is your opinion of the Democratic Party 100% 80% 88% 85% Clinton Trump 60% 40% 20% 8% 9% 0% Favorable (47%) Unfavorable (49%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 26

27 Vote for President in a Two Way Race If these were the only two candidates for president on the ballot today, for whom would you have voted? 100% 97% 97% Clinton 80% Trump 60% 40% 20% 16% 21% 0% 1% 1% Hillary Clinton (47%) Donald Trump (47%) Would not vote (5%) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 27

28 Was It White Voters? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 28

29 In Michigan and Wisconsin Yes MICHIGAN % of Electorate Net Romney % of Electorate Net Trump Trump over Romney White 77% % AA 16% 90 15% Hispanic/ Latino 3% 29 5% WISCONSIN White 86% +3 86% AA 7% 88 7% Hispanic/ Latino 4% 35 4% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 29

30 In Florida White Voters and Falloff in African American Support FLORIDA % of Electorate Net Romney % of Electorate Net Trump Trump over Romney White 67% % AA 13% 91 14% Hispanic/ Latino 17% 21 18% 27 6 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 30

31 In Pennsylvania Appears to Be Turnout PENNSYLVANIA % of Electorate Net Romney % of Electorate Net Trump Trump over Romney White 78% % AA 13% 87 10% Hispanic/ Latino 6% 62 6% If African Americans had made up 3% more of the electorate, and those additional African Americans voted similarly to those who did show up at the polls, that would have translated to approximately 152,000 more votes for Clinton. Clinton lost Pennsylvania by approximately 65,600 votes. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 31

32 Was It White Voters? % of Electorate Romney % of Electorate Trump Net Trump over Romney Arizona 74% White 66% 75% White 54% 12 California 55% White 53% 48% White 45% 8 Colorado 78% White 54% 78% White 47% 7 Nevada 64% White 56% 62% White 56% New Mexico 51% White 56% 49% White 47% 9 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 32

33 October Surprises

34 Trump Surprise Post Billy Bush (Friday, October 7) Clinton Advantage NBC News +11 Battleground +8 FOX +7 Boston Globe +10 CBS +9 Monmouth +12 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 34

35 Clinton Surprise Post James Comey (Friday, October 28) Clinton Advantage ABC/Post 1 CBS +3 FOX +2 McClatchy +1 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 35

36 Who Dragged Whom Down? THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 36

37 There were 20 states where Hillary Clinton underperformed Barack Obama by 5 points or more including: Iowa ( 10) Maine ( 8) Michigan ( 7) Minnesota ( 6) Ohio ( 7) Wisconsin ( 6) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 37

38 Who Dragged Whom Down? There were only 2 states where Donald Trump underperformed Mitt Romney by 5 points or more: Idaho ( 6) Utah ( 27) Where third party favorite Evan McMullin took 21% THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 38

39 Predicting Voter Turnout in the 2016 Election THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 39

40 Who Were the New Voters? Net New Voters % of New Net Voters White 152,862, ,084,000 3,222,000 (+2%) 30% African American 25,753,000 27,402,000 1,649,000 (+6%) 15% Hispanic/Latino 23,329,000 27,302,000 3,973,000 (+17%) 37% Total Non White = 70% Asian 8,032,000 9,286,000 1,254,000 (+16%) 12% Other 5,105,000 5,704, ,000 (+12%) 6% Total 215,081, ,778,000 10,697,000 (+5%) 100% Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports 2012 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 40

41 2016 Had as Many Hispanics as African Americans % of 2012 Electorate % of 2016 Electorate Change in % of Electorate White 71.1% 69.1% 2.0 Actual Number of Voters 156,084,000 African American 11.9% 12.1% ,402,000 Hispanic/Latino 10.8% 12.1% ,302,000 Asian 3.8% 4.1% ,286,000 Other 2.4% 2.5% ,704,000 Total 100% 100% 225,778,000 Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports 2012 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 41

42 70% of net new voters were in demographic groups which the Republican presidential candidate lost in 2012 by anywhere from 20 to 87 points. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 42

43 African American Turnout Has Increased Significantly Since 1996 Other Groups Less So (% of Eligible Voters) WHITE AFRICAN AMERICAN HISPANIC/LATINO ASIAN % 53.0% 44.0% 45.0% % 56.8% 45.1% 43.4% % 60.0% 47.2% 44.2% % 64.7% 49.9% 47.6% % 66.2% 48.0% 47.3% 2016???? Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports 2012 THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 43

44 Thank You Hans Kaiser Moore Information th Street, Suite 8 Annapolis, MD hansk@moore info.com NABPAC thanks Jake McGuire of The PAC Store for allowing us to use his photographs in this presentation. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 44