2016 LATINO ELECTION ANALYSIS. November 30, 2016

Transcription

1 2016 LATINO ELECTION ANALYSIS November 30, 2016

2 Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll 2 18% 12% 16% 16% 31% 10% 15% 16% 10% 17% 16% 15% 10% 79% 84% 80% 81% 67% 86% 82% 81% 88% 80% 80% 81% 87% U.S. AZ CA CO FL IL NC NV NY OH TX VA WI Hillary Clinton Donald Trump N=5,600

3 Edison national exit poll: Questions 3 How did they arrive at 65-29? Which precincts did they select? How many were in Latino neighborhoods? How many Spanish interviews did they conduct? Did they match Latino sample to known census demographics?

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5 National exit polls questions 5 20% of their sample comes from a pre-election telephone poll of early voters 80% of their sample comes from a small handful of precincts in each state which are not representative of Latinos. For example in 2014 exit poll they selected ZERO precinct locations in the Rio Grande Valley, TX and this is where 25% of all Latinos in Texas live.

6 National exit polls questions 6 Who do they count as Hispanic or Latino? They have a basic race/ethnicity question that allows people to self-identify their primary race/ethnicity Then they have a follow-up question later to attempt to find more assimilated and acculturated Hispanics. They report extreme differences in the vote preferences of these different types of Hispanics in their sample

7 National exit polls questions 7 Where do they interview their Latino respondents? According to the Census 48% of Latinos live in majority-latino neighborhoods, 22% in neighborhoods 25-50% Latino and 30% in places less than 25% Latino Did they collect about half of their Latino interviews from respondents in majority-latino neighborhoods? They need to report out the demographics of Latino sample

8 8 Opinions on the Exit Poll

9 9 Opinions on the Exit Poll

10 10 Opinions on the Exit Poll

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12 Latino polling across Poll Percent Trump Univision/Washington Post 19% NBC/Telemundo oversample 17% NALEO/Telemundo 14% FIU/New Latino Voice 13% Gross statistical model 18%

13 13 Perceptions of candidate outreach to Latinos Truly Cares Doesn't care Hostile Trump Romney Clinton Obama Latino Decisions election eve poll, November 8, 2016 n=5600

14 14 Perceptions of candidate outreach to Latinos Truly Cares Doesn't care Hostile Trump Romney Clinton Obama Latino Decisions election eve poll, November 8, 2016 n=5600

15 TURNING TO REAL ELECTION DATA FOR ANSWERS

16 16 Deeper look at precincts in Texas

17 17 Opinions on the Exit Poll

18 Full analysis of Texas 18 Rather than look only at high-density Latino precincts, analysts downloaded every single precinct for 17 counties in Texas which covers 75% of the state population Rely on ecological inference analysis developed by Harvard Political Scientist Gary King Analyzing all precincts can provide accurate vote choice estimates using official vote data

19 19 Across more than 4,300 precincts data very clearly shows Latino vote for Clinton was almost 80% and less than 20% for Trump Exit poll claims 61% - 34%

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21 21 Among 864 precincts which are 75% or higher Latino: Clinton won more total net votes than Obama in 692 (or 80%)

22 22 Across more than 1,200 precincts data very clearly shows Latino vote for Clinton was over 85% and less than 15% for Trump Exit poll claims 61% - 31%

23 23 Deeper look at precincts in Miami

24 24 Two examples of counties in Florida We see this trend across almost all counties in Florida where Clinton exceeded Obama vote and Trump under-performed Romney among Latinos

25 25 Among 230 precincts which are 75% or higher Latino: Clinton won more total net votes than Obama in 203 (or 88%)

26 26 Nevada: Exit poll estimated 60% Clinton to 29% Trump LD estimated 81% to 16%

27 New Mexico Latino Vote Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote D.A % 85% 9% D. A % 84% 9% D. A % 87% 7% Val % 72% 16% S.F % 66% 24% S. M % 69% 11%

28 28 20 most heavily Latino precincts in Virginia

29 Wisconsin Latino Vote Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote D12W232 78% 87% 9% D12W233 77% 88% 9% D12W231 75% 85% 13% D12W236 74% 83% 12% D12W321 72% 90% 8% D12W237 74% 88% 8%

30 30 Deeper look at precincts in Pennsylvania

31 31 Deeper look at precincts in California

32 32 Deeper look at precincts in Illinois Exit poll reports N/A for IL Latinos

33 33 Deeper look at precincts in New York Where did that 23% come from??? Exit poll reports Trump won 23% of NY Latinos

34 Ohio Latino Vote Precinct % Latino HRC Vote DJT Vote Columbus 04D 75% 90% 7% Cleveland 14H 74% 81% 12% Cleveland 14L 73% 80% 14% Loraine 5D 72% 80% 15% Cleveland14M 71% 75% 21% Cleveland 14E 70% 74% 19%

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