America s Voice/Latino Decisions. Colorado Latino Voter Survey. Sept./Oct. 2012

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2 America s Voice/Latino Decisions Robert Preuhs, Ph.D. MSU-Denver Colorado Latino Voter Survey Sept./Oct. 2012

3 Poll Details Poll Sponsored by America s Voice and conducted by Latino Decisions Random Sample of 400 Latino Registered Voters in Colorado Fielded September 29 October 4, 2012 Conducted in English or Spanish Maximum Margin of Error: 4.9%

4 Economy and Immigration Top Priorities 50% 40% What are the most important issues facing the Latino Community that you think Congress and the President should address? 45% 44% 30% 20% 10% 19% 14% 0% Economy Immigration Education Health Care

5 Immigration Impacts Voting Decisions 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% How important is the issue of immigration in your decision to vote and who to vote for in this election? 24% The Most Important Issue 35% One of the Most Imporant Issues 27% Somewhat Important 12% Not Really Important

6 Candidates Immigration Policies Affect Latino Support 70% Obama Policy Effect 60% 50% 54% Romney Policy Effect 64% 40% 30% 35% 20% 24% 10% 0% 9% 9% More Enthusiastic No Effect Less Enthusiastic

7 76 Percent Support ASSET Bill Do you support or oppose the ASSET bill to allow undocumented immigrant youth to attend college here in Colorado and not have to pay the higher non-resident rates? 70% 60% 50% 58% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Strongly Support 18% Somewhat Support 10% 11% Somewhat Oppose Strongly Oppose

8 Support for ASSET Crosses Party Lines 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Democrats Republicans Independents 80% 76% 59% 40% 17% 20% 0% Support Oppose Combined Strong and Somewhat

9 Obama Support Remains High If the election were held today, would you vote for Romney Undecided Obama Sept/Oct % 6% 74% June % 8% 70% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

10 Congressional Advantage to Dems 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Now thinking about the upcoming elections for U.S. Congress in November, do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district? 64% Will Vote Democrat 4% 12% 4% 15% Lean Democrat Undecided Lean Republican Will Vote Republican

11 Increasing Enthusiasm for the Election June 2012 Sept/Oct % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 60% 69% Very Enthusiastic About Voting 44% 54% More Enthusiastic 2012 than 2008

12 Enthusiasm High Across PID and Presidential Preference Categories Very Somwhat Not Too Much Not At All Obama (Certain) Romney (Certain) Democrats Republicans 73% 69% 73% 78% 20% 29% 21% 21% Independents 49% 36% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

13 Enthusiasm Relative to 2008 Across PID and Candidate Preference More Enthusiastic in 2012 Same Less Enthusiastic in 2012 Obama (Certain) 52% 28% 19% Romney (Certain) 83% 0% 17% Democrats 58% 24% 16% Republicans 74% 5% 22% Independents 44% 28% 24% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

14 Key Findings from Colorado Immigration a Top Issue Strong Support for ASSET Bill Support for Obama Remains High Enthusiasm Is High and Increasing

15 LATINO VOTE IN THE 2012 NATIONAL ELECTION A NATIONAL/BATTLEGROUND STATE PERSPECTIVE GABE SANCHEZ, UNM POLL SPONSORED BY AMERICA S VOICE AND CONDUCTED BY LATINO DECISIONS Latino Decisions

16 Percent Latino Vote Projection in the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Tracker Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, NB: LD polls include only registered voters Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan

17 Percent Two-Party Generic House Vote, 2012 Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN

18 Battlegrounds look different than the overall electorate Voters in battlegro unds far more engaged Arizona Florida Nevada Colorado Virginia New Mexico National Obama /15 10/17 72 Romney DEM REP Very Enthused Know Undoc

19 Immigration Has Become Personal Many question how/why immigration policy is so salient to Latino voters?

20 THANK YOU FOR MORE INFORMATION: ON TWITTER GABE GARY MATT Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

21 James Mejia, President & CEO, Mejia and Associates; former President, Denver Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (Moderator), MSU-Denver Affiliate Faculty. Robert Preuhs, Assistant Professor of Political Science, MSU-Denver Gabriel Sanchez, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Director of Research, Latino Decisions Olivia Mendoza, Executive Director, Colorado Latino Forum Grace Lopez Ramirez, Colorado State Director, Mi Familia Vota Sergio De La Rosa, DREAMer and leader with Together Colorado Action Fund

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23 Supplemental Slides

24 High Levels of Obama Support and Enthusiasm Among those Concerned about Immigration 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Among respondents indicating immigration is the most important issue, percentage supporting Obama, being very enthusiastic and more enthusiastic in % Obama (Certain) 73% 62% Very Enthusiastic More Enthusiastic in 2012

25 Party ID and Presidential Preference 100% 96% 80% 67% 83% 60% 40% Obama Romney 20% 21% 15% 0% 1.00% Democrat (52% of Respondents) Independent (21% of Respondents) Republican (15% of Respondents)

26 Percent Persistent Enthusiasm Problem Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, November Univision January Univision Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 ABC More Enthusiastic about 2012 More Enthusiastic about 2008 Very Enthusiastic