Political Implications of Immigration in 2010: Latino Voters in Arizona. Commissioned by

Transcription

1 Political Implications of Immigration in 1: Latino Voters in Arizona Commissioned by May 11, 1 p1

2 Contact Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D Gary M. Segura, Ph.D Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 p2

3 Survey Overview Statewide survey of Latino registered voters in state of Arizona Primary aim was to understand Latino views towards Arizona immigration law, 17 Also included questions national immigration reform and political parties n=2, margin of error +/- 4.9 Field dates, April 3 May 5, 1 Partnered with Latino politics faculty at Arizona State University, and Northern Arizona University Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 p3

4 Survey Overview We examine 4 topic areas: 1. Reaction to Arizona law 2. National immigration policy 3. Partisan implications 4. Impact on 1 turnout p4

5 1. Reaction to the Arizona Law p5

6 Latino views on 17 Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 17? Strongly oppose Somew hat oppose Somew hat support Strongly support Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p6

7 Latinos in comparison Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 17? Oppose Support Latinos Rasmussen - AZ Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p7

8 Views by generation status Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 17? Oppose Support st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p8

9 Views by party identification Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 17? Oppose 78 Support Dem Rep Indep Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p9

10 Support for Arizona Boycott People should boycott Arizona-based companies or stop doing business with the state to send a message Agree Disagree Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p1

11 Fears about racial profiling How likely that Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens will get stopped or questioned by police? Likely Not likely Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p11

12 Profiling views by generation Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens will get stopped or questioned by police? Likely Not likely st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p12

13 Fears about racial profiling When deciding who to stop and question, the police will primarily choose people because they are Latino Agree Disagree Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p13

14 Fears about racial profiling If most of the immigrants in Arizona where White Europeans, this law would not have been passed Agree Disagree Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p14

15 Hurting relations with police In the future, I would be less likely to report a crime or volunteer information to the police Agree Disagree Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p15

16 Driving Latinos away? If you are repeatedly required to prove your U.S. citizenship to law enforcement, would you consider moving to another state Yes No Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p16

17 Summary of Reaction to SB17 Latino opposition to the new law is overwhelming: 98% were knowledgeable of the law, SB 17 Transcends generation and transcends party Latino voters see the law as personally threatening: US citizens and legal immigrants will be targeted; Racial profiling will be the mechanism of enforcement; If immigrants were white, there would be no law. Majority support for the boycott, though modest. p17

18 2. National Immigration Policy p18

19 Most Important Issue What do you think are the most important issues that President Obama and the Congress should address over the next year? Immigration 59% Fix the economy 22% Health Care 17% Create more jobs 13% Education 5% War on terror 4% Banking reform 2% Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 Respondents could select 2 issues p19

20 Support for Policy Reform What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants? Deport illegal immigrants Guest worker program Pathway to citizenship Immediate legalization Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p

21 Support for Policy Reform What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants? st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen 3 1 Deport illegal immigrants Guest worker program Opportunity for Citizenship* Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 * Combines path to citizenship and immediate legalization categories p21

22 Support for Policy Reform How important that Congress passes immigration reform before the November 1 election? Very important Somewhat important Not too important Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p22

23 Support for Policy Reform 1 9 How important that Congress passes immigration reform before the November 1 election? % who said very important Arizona May 1 National Mar 1 National Nov 9 National Apr 9 National Nov 8 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p23

24 Summary on National Policy The Arizona law has radically increased the salience of immigration as an issue; Immigration is now the #1 issue to Latino voters Latino voters overwhelmingly prefer a policy option that includes a path to legalization; There is growing impatience with the administration: Almost four in five voters think there needs to be a bill passed by the November election. Support for a national bill is highest we have ever recorded p24

25 3. Partisan Implications and Consequences p25

26 Political Implications Which political party do you think is responsible for the new immigration law in Arizona? Democrats Republicans Both Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p26

27 Political Implications Party identification: Arizona Latinos May Republican Indep / Other Democrat Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p27

28 Political Implications Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 1 Which party do you do you feel closer to? With leaners recoded as partisans Republican Indep / Other Democrat Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p28

29 Political Implications Which party do you plan to vote for in upcoming elections for U.S. Congress and Senate in November 1? Republican Undecided Democrat p29 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9

30 Political Implications Who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming election for Governor of Arizona in November 1? Brewer Undecided Goddard Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p3

31 Political Implications 1 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? % who approve Arizona May 1 National Mar 1 National Nov 9 National Apr 9 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p31

32 Political Implications 7 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President? % who strongly approve Arizona May 1 National Mar 1 National Nov 9 National Apr 9 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p32

33 Partisan Fallout Do you know Obama/McCain position on AZ immigration law? Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 Favors it Opposes it Favors it Opposes it Obama McCain p33

34 Partisan Fallout Combined awareness of Obama/McCain on immigration law Know where both stand 37 Only know McCain favors 19 Only know Obama opposes 19 Don't know either position Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p34

35 Partisan implications Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform? Ignoring Working Blocking Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p35

36 Partisan implications Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform? Ignoring Working Blocking Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p36

37 Partisan implications Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform? 5 46 May April Ignoring Working Blocking Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p37

38 Partisan implications Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform? 5 +4 ignoring -1 working 46 May point swing in 3 weeks time April Ignoring Working Blocking Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p38

39 Partisan implications Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform? 5 +4 ignoring +3 blocking May Apr working Ignoring Working Blocking Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p39

40 Partisan implications Approve or Disapprove of Obama handling of immigration? point swing in 3 weeks time - 8 approval +2 approval Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove May April Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p

41 Partisan implications If immigration reform is not passed before Nov 1, would you say that is understandable, or going back on a promise? 5-14 understandable understandable Understandable Going back Understandable Going back May 1 - AZ Nov 9 - National p41 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9

42 Partisan implications Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Republican Party excited excited More excited Less excited More excited Less excited May 1 - AZ Mar 1 - National Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p42

43 Partisan implications Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Democratic Party 5-14 excited excited More excited Less excited More excited Less excited May 1 - AZ Mar 1 - National p43 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9

44 Partisan implications Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Democratic Party 5 Among Democrats only More excited Less excited More excited Less excited May 1 - AZ Mar 1 - National p44 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9

45 Summary of Partisan Effects A majority of Latino voters blame Republicans for the passage of the new law: But a third of Latino voters blame both parties; A growing number of respondents believe Democrats are ignoring the issue; Both parties are paying costs for the issue: GOP costs more severe, but enthusiasm for Democrats is severely constrained by perceived inaction. There is not a knee-jerk swell of support for Democrats, Latinos are proceeding very cautiously with respect to Democratic support p45

46 Summary of Partisan Effects Generic two-party vote is Democratic, but soft: The undecided signals a weak vote share in November; Support for Governor Brewer among Latino voters is a scant 12%; Obama approval overall appears stable (73%) However - the strength of support is weakening; And, a significant decline in approval for his handling of immigration Majority now believe that inaction on immigration before Nov is going back on a campaign promise Only 42% of self-identified Democrats are excited about what the Democratic party is doing today p46

47 4. Impact on Voting in 1 p47

48 Impact on voting in 1 How effect your decision to vote in November: Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p48

49 Impact on voting in 1 How effect your decision to vote in November: Congress NOT passing comprehensive immigration reform More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p49

50 Impact on Voting in 1 Among those who follow political news very closely How enthusiastic are you about voting in November Very much Not at all Understandable Going back on promise Obama not passing immigration reform before Nov-1 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p5

51 Impact on Voting in 1 Among those who follow political news very closely How enthusiastic are you about voting in November Very much Not at all Ignoring immigration Working on reform Dems in Congress are ignoring or working on immigration reform Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9 p51

52 Impact on Voting in 1 Among those who follow political news very closely How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 1 8 Very much Not at all Republicans to blame Both parties to blame Which party is responsible for AZ immig law being passed p52 Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 1 n=2 +/- 4.9

53 Summary of Effects on 1 Immigration can significantly affect the 1 Elections; Perceptions of Democratic inaction, or the view that the President has broken his promise on this issue, substantially reduce enthusiasm for voting in Nov Affirmative movement on the issue is key to mobilizing the Latino electorate. Throughout, Latinos who do not see Dems protecting their interests, are very unlikely to vote in Nov p53

54 CONCLUDING THOUGHTS The Arizona statute has moved immigration front and center in the minds of Latino registered voters; The issue carries high salience across all conceivable demographics of Latino voters The Latino electorate s response is more sophisticated than some might have expected: They are suspicious of Democratic and administration commitment on the issue; In the absence of action, GOP misbehavior will not be sufficient to mobilize a Latino voting block, which is currently very energized p54