Decisión Latino voters, immigration policy and the 2012 election
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1 Decisión 2012 Latino voters, immigration policy and the 2012 election
2 America s Voice/Latino Decisions New Mexico Latino Voter Survey Gabriel R Sanchez, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Political Science Assistant Director, RWJF Center for Health Policy University of New Mexico Director of Research Latino Decisions
3 Poll Details Poll Sponsored by America s Voice and conducted by Latino Decisions Random Sample of 400 Latino Registered Voters in New Mexico Fielded October 3-10, 2012 Conducted in English or Spanish (Fully Bilingual Interviewers) Maximum Margin of Error: 4.9%, and surveys were approximately 12 minutes long
4 Hispanic Voters Drive New Mexico Elections 50.00% 45.00% 40.00% Growth in Latino Population in NM Over Time 46.30% 42.10% 38.20% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% % 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% New Mexico
5 Economy and Immigration Top Priorities
6 Immigration Impacts Voting Decisions
7 Candidates Immigration Policies Affect Latino Support
8 70% Support Access to Driver s License for Undocumented Immigrants
9 Support for License With Added Restrictions There is a driver s license reform proposal being considered here in New Mexico that would subject undocumented immigrant drivers to stricter identity and residency requirements, more frequent renewals, and tougher penalties for fraud. Would you support this proposal being implemented by state government?
10 Changing NM Demography Helps Explain Policy Attitudes
11 Immigration Personal to Hispanic Voters in NM
12 Immigration Personal to Hispanic Voters in NM
13 Obama Support Remains High in NM If the election were held today, would you vote for
14 57% of Latinos Support Heinrich If the election were held today, would you vote for
15 Congressional Advantage to Dems in NM
16 Increasing Enthusiasm for the Election
17 Key Findings from New Mexico Immigration Salient to voters in New Mexico Strong Support for Driver s License With Stricter Requirements for Undocumented Immigrants Support for Obama Remains High, and rise in Hispanic population in NM moving state in Dems favor Enthusiasm Is High But Somewhat Fragile among Latino voters
18 LATINO VOTE IN THE 2012 NATIONAL ELECTION A NATIONAL/BATTLEGROUND STATE PERSPECTIVE HOW DOES NM COMPARE WITH OTHER STATES? POLL SPONSORED BY AMERICA S VOICE AND CONDUCTED BY LATINO DECISIONS Latino Decisions
19 Latino Vote Projection in the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Tracker Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, NB: LD polls include only registered voters Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan
20 Two-Party Generic House Vote, 2012 Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Democrat Republican
21 Battlegrounds differ from overall Latino electorate *Note enthusiasm difference Arizona Florida Nevada Colorado Virginia New Mexico National Obama Romney DEM REP Very Enthused Know Undoc
22 THANK YOU FOR MORE INFORMATION: ON TWITTER GABE GARY MATT Follow us on Facebook and Twitter
23 Lets Meet Our Amazing Panel Patty Kupfer, Managing Director, America s Voice Gabriel Sanchez, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Director of Research, Latino Decisions, Assistant Director, RWJF Center for Health Policy Christine Sierra, Professor of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Director of Southwest Hispanic Research Institute Lucia Fraire, Field Director of Voter Program, Ole New Mexico Rafael Martinez, DREAMer and MA student in American Studies
24
25 High Levels of Obama Support and Enthusiasm Among those Concerned about Immigration Among respondents indicating immigration is the most important issue, percentage supporting Obama, being very enthusiastic and more enthusiastic in 2012.
26 Persistent Enthusiasm Problem Source: Impremedia/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracker, Percent November Univision January Univision Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 ABC More Enthusiastic about 2012 More Enthusiastic about 2008 Very Enthusiastic
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Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track? 67% 56% 51% 51% 49% 49%
THE POLITICO-GW BATTLEGROUND POLL A national survey of 1,000 Registered Likely Voters Do you feel things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong
Statewide General Benchmark August
Performed by Commonwealth Leaders Fund The PA Statewide Benchmark Survey was conducted by IVR Interviews from August 13 - August 15 among a random sample of 2012 likely voters. The poll has a margin error
FOR RELEASE: WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 14 AT 4 PM
NEVADA POLL Interviews with 2,084 adults in Nevada conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on November 9-13,, including 304 voters who say they are likely to vote in the Nevada Republican