Key Takeaways TRUMP SENATE
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2 TRUMP Trump s Approval Improved Moderately in Key States Nationally and at the state level, Trump s approval stayed relatively steady since our April report, with 43% approving of his job performance and 52% disapproving. Trump s approval rating is in negative territory in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Key Takeaways SENATE Key Reelection Contests Remain Consistent Most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents, and those numbers have held steady since our May report. McCaskill, Heller, and Manchin are in the toughest reelection battles Coming out of state primaries, many incumbents have seen their approval ratings improve HOUSE Democrats Edge Out s in Key Toss-up In toss-up districts, the generic candidate slightly edges out the candidate, 40% to 3. In safe districts, 5 of voters approve of Trump while 42% disapprove In safe districts, 6 of voters disapprove of Trump while only 20% approve 2
3 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls
4 Trump Approval by Party All Voters Change since 43% 52% Approve Disapprove previous month 0 - Trump Approval Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Democrats 8% 3% 72% 2% Approve 8 Disapprove Independents 2 9% 7% 37% 38% Approve 5 Disapprove 4 s 48% 36% 8% 6% 8 Approve Disapprove
5 Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. (-0) (-6) Trump Approval 2 (+2) (+2) (0) (+) (-) (-) (+2) (-) (-) Clinton won state in 206 presidential election Trump won state in 206 presidential election Change since previous month
6 Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Trump Approval 36% 4% 46% 52% 3% 3% 3% 2 22% 20% 6% 6% 20% 23% 30% % 27% 28% Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Approve Strongly Approve 6 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI
7 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls
8 Generic Congressional Ballot Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans All Voters Change since 40% Candidate 3 Candidate previous month 0 0 Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion Candidate Democrats 89% 9% Independents % 8 s % 87%
9 Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate 33% (-) 40% (0) 32% (+4) 40% (-) Generic Congressional Ballot 37% (0) 38% (0) 3 (+) 40% (+) 39% (+) 3 (0) 40% (+) 37% (0) 3 (+) 38% (0) 3% (+) 4% (-) 36% (-) 39% (-) 42% (+) 33% (-) 38% (+) 38% (+) 9 Democrat holds Senate seat opening in 208 holds Senate seat opening in 208 Change since previous month
10 Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Generic Congressional Ballot 23% 23% 29% % 39% Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion 5 46% 40% 36% 30% Candidate 0 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI
11 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls
12 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Bill Nelson (D-FL) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Jon Tester (D-MT) 4 (-) 3 (+2) 28% (-2) 50% (+2) 4% (0) 3 (0) 3% (+) 43% (-) 40% (+2) 4 (-) 3% (+) 5% (-) 50% (-2) 36% (+) 40% (-2) 4 (-) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) 4 (0) 4 (-) 3 (-) 50% (0) 2 Change since previous month
13 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Dean Heller (R-NV) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Bob Casey (D-PA) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) 37% (-) 40% (0) 2 (0) 53% (+) 4 (0) 29% (0) 33% (0) 4% (-) 42% (+) 32% (-) 3% (+) 4 (-) 4 (+2) 39% (-) 39% (+2) 42% (-2) Joe Manchin (D-WV) 4 (+) 43% (-) 36% (+) 49% (-2) 3 Change since previous month
14 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Representative] is doing? 43% 43% 30% 3% 39% 38% % 32% Approve Disapprove Do you think [Representative] deserves reelection? 40% 4% 32% 3% % 26% 29% Deserves reelection Time for a new person 4 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI
15 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls
16 Top Policy Among All Voters All Americans Democrats Independents s 26% 23% 28% 3 Top Policy 2% 6% 's 2% 20% 8% 6% 's 28% 's 6% 2% 's 2% 7% 8% 9% 's 6% 7% 3% 's 's 's 2% 2% 6
17 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States Arizona Florida Indiana % 23% 2 23% 6% 8% 7% 6% 0% 6% 7% Top Policy 3% 3% 3% 3% Missouri Montana Nevada 28% 27% 26% 9% 8% 22% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 7
18 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania 2 26% 28% 2 20% 20% 6% 9% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% Top Policy 3% 3% 3% West Virginia Wisconsin 26% 26% 2% 9% 9% 8% 6% 7% 6% 8 3%
19 Top Policy by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Top Policy 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 8% 9% 2% 22% 23% s 7% 6% 7% 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 3% 3% s 9 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI
20 Business Development For More Information Press Inquiries Methodology 20 The results are compiled from surveys with more than 33,93 registered voters across the U.S. from April, 208 to June 30, 208. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.
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