2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018
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1 2018 MIDTERMS PRE- ELECTION OVER VIEW OCTOBER 2018
2 4 Weeks Out Greg Speed President, America Votes
3 State of Power: From 2008 to Now President Dem Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep US Senate Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep? US House Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? Governor Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? Lt. Governor Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? Attorney Gen Dem Split Split Rep Rep? Sec. of State Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? Treasurer Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? Auditor Dem Rep Split Rep Rep? State Senate Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep? State House Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep?
4 State of Power: From 2008 to Now President Dem Dem Dem Dem Rep US Senate Dem Dem Dem Rep Rep What s at Stake in 2018 US House Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep 36 Gubernatorial & Statewide Ofc. Elections Governor Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep GOP currently holds 33 of 50 governors Lt. Governor Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep 35 U.S. Senate Elections Attorney Gen Dem Split Split Rep Rep +2 seats needed for Dem majority Sec. of State Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep 75+ Flippable U.S. House Elections Treasurer Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep +23 seats needed for Dem majority Auditor Dem Rep Split Rep Rep State Senate Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep State House Dem Rep Rep Rep Rep
5 Midterms, : Party Out-of-Power Gains Avg. U.S. House U.S. Senate Governors Leg. Chambers
6 2018 Midterm: Current Outlook Midterm Generic Ballot Test Consistent Democratic advantage of approx. ~8-10 points Dems likely need sizeable (5-8pt) generic ballot lead to win majority Special Elections +11% swing to Dems in 124 special elections in Blue/Purple/Red states 46 Red to Blue pick-ups since January 20, 2017 FiveThirtyEight, 10/08/2018; Daily Kos Special Elections vs. Presidential Results 10/08/2018
7 Five Thirty-Eight 10/08/ Midterm: Current Outlook
8 2018 Midterm: Current Outlook New York Times 11/08/16
9 Midterm Metric: Presidential Approval Key Indicator: Presidents with a sub-50% approval rating lost avg. of 40 House seats in midterms since 66 66% 63% 63% 57% 58% 52% 49% 47% 43% 46% % 45% 42% Job Approval Over 60% 50%-60% Under 50% Average Change +3 Seats -12 Seats -40 Seats Trump Job Approval 42.3% 538 Average: October 8, 2018 Cook Political Report, 09/10/2018
10 Midterm Metric: Presidential Disapproval Past President Day 30 Disapproval Day 627 Disapproval Donald Trump 50% 52% Barack Obama 28% 48% George W. Bush 21% 29% Bill Clinton 30% 50% George H.W. Bush 12% 25% Ronald Reagan 17% 48% Jimmy Carter 8% 34% Gerald Ford 3% 41% Richard Nixon 5% 31% Lyndon Johnson 3% 20% Unknown Factor: Intensity of Disapproval Trump has a historic disapproval rating of 52% at the 627- day mark of his presidency +18% more unfavorable than past presidents at this point, on average. FiveThirtyEight, 10/08/2018
11 Midterm Challenge: Turnout 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000-37% -32% FL 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000-32% -45% Total Ballots (OH) Total Ballots (FL) OH 2,000,000 1,000,
12 Registration & Turnout Gaps in 2014 Registration Gaps (vs. White Registration) Black Asian Hispanic FL 2% -1% -3% MI -1% -24% -11% OH 2% -7% -8% PA -13% -10% -18% WI -17% -41% -28% Turnout Gaps (vs. White Turnout) Black Asian Hispanic -7% -6% -6% -4% -9% -22% -1% -3% -21% -7% -50% -11% 5% -22% -17%
13 Midterm Metric: Voter Intensity % of registered voters who say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting % High Interest in Election Support Dem Candidate Support Rep Candidate Dem Supporters +31 pts More Enthusiastic Re: Voting Democrats Republicans Dems+17 pts High Intensity in Midterm SEPT 2006 OCT 2010 SEPT 2014 SEPT 2018 Mid October Jan- Aug September 2018 Pew Research Center 09/26/18 NBC/WSJ 09/26/18
14 Midterm Metric: House Primary Turnout Analysis Change in Primary Turnout From 2014 to 2018 In 2018 primaries on both sides of the aisle, 56 percent of primary ballots cast this year were for Democrats. The last time Democrats took control of the House, in the 2006 election, they made up 54 percent of primary ballots. 46% 10.7 Million Votes 56% 20.4 Million Votes 54% 12.8 Million Votes 44% 16.3 Million Votes Pew Research Center 10/03/ Republicans Democrats
15 Midterm Metric: Primary Turnout in Key States 70% Republican Primary Turnout 60% 50% -13% -11% -8% -7% -1% 40% 30% -14% -4% 20% 10% 0% Minnesota Georgia Nevada Michigan Arizona New Mexico Florida Source: John Couvillon, States Department of Elections Credit: Renee Klahr/NPR GOP Vote Share in 2014 GOP Vote Share in 2018
16 What I m Watching X-Factors 567 Days Dem Candidate Fundraising Campaign Discipline (101-Level) Bellwether Races CA-21 (Latino), MN-8 (Rural-Extracting), IL-6 (Suburbs), IA-3 (Rural-Agriculture) AZ-Sen, FL-Sen, OH Governor U.S. House Sleepers Trump = Underwater in 2 of 3 Likely GOP Seats; DEEP Underwater in ~25% GOP Gerrymanders in Jeopardy 8 GOP Redistricting Trifectas = +15 House Seats Dem Toss-Up or Better for Gov. in FL, GA, IA, KS, MI, OH, OK, WI Democracy Initiatives & Courts Ballot Measures: FL, MI, MO, NV, NC Key State Supreme Courts: MI, NC
17 Fake or Real? What s Fake Specials Performance Dem Enthusiasm Generic Ballot What s Real Independents Money/Resources 78 Seats/Candidates
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19 Overlooked & Discounted Incumbency 120 Cong Races Since 12 Republican Record: 115 wins 5 losses
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24 1/2 1& /7 2 1&2 1/2 1 1/ /2 1/4 ½ 1 1
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