Campaigns & Elections November 6, 2017 Dr. Michael Sullivan. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOVT 2305 MoWe 5:30 6:50 MoWe 7 8:30

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1 Campaigns & Elections November 6, 2017 Dr. Michael Sullivan FEDERAL GOVERNMENT GOVT 2305 MoWe 5:30 6:50 MoWe 7 8:30

2 Current Events, Recent Polls, & Review Background influences on campaigns Presidential nominating races Presidential general election Upcoming Assignments

3 The EGLS3 survey will be open for two weeks November for/current students/egls3 evaluate your professors/ SPRING REGISTRATION Texas Government Origin and development of the Texas constitution, structure and powers of state and local government, federalism and intergovernmental relations, political participation, the election process, public policy, and the political culture of Texas. Option for next Current Event Paper. Attend & write 2 page paper in stead of current event.

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8 Party Organizations focus on winning elections American parties are more decentralized than in most nations. The national level does not have direct power to manage the state, county, and precinct levels. Party organizations have lost influence, but they remain indispensable McGraw Hill Education.

9 National Party Organizations National party organizations Power is limited Run presidential nomination conventions Major campaign role is raising money leaders McGraw Hill Education.

10 State Party Organizations State party organizations Central committee; chairperson Concentrate on statewide organizational efforts and races party/leaders/officers/ directory/party officers/ McGraw Hill Education.

11 Local Party Organizations Local party organizations 95% of party activists work at this level McGraw Hill Education.

12 Current Events, Recent Events, & Review Background influences on campaigns 1. Most voters make up mind whom to vote for Presidential nominating races prior to election 2. Less votes are up for grabs in presidential Presidential general election campaigns 3. Issues that voters care about Upcoming Assignments

13 Background Influences (out of candidates control) Most voters already have made pick when campaign starts

14 Background Influences (out of candidates control) Less votes are up for grabs in presidential campaigns More stable Less switching from one party to another

15 A. Rising level of party polarization Q. What factor has most influenced less vote switching during recent campaigns? Number of swing voters has declined from 15 20% in early 2000 s to 5 10%

16 Views of the opposing party & candidates have grown colder over time press.org/2016/06/22/partisanship and political animosity in 2016/

17 Background Influences (out of candidates control) Low voter turnout in US elections 86.8% US Adult Citizens Registered to Vote 55.7% Registered Voters Actually Voted

18 Background Influences (out of candidates control) Issues that voters care most about Foreign policy issues don't figure all that heavily into the outcome of presidential campaigns, except when a war has turned out badly. span.org/video/? /contenders hubert humphrey 1968&start=63

19 Background Influences (out of candidates control) Issues that voters care most about Economic Growth and Presidential Election Outcomes When the economy is growing, the party holding the presidency typically gets a larger share of the two party presidential vote than it does when the economy is weakening.

20 Current Events, Recent Polls, & Review Background influences on campaigns Presidential nominating races Presidential general election Upcoming Assignments

21 Presidential Nominating Races The United States has primary elections, which place a heavy demand on presidential candidates. Instead of a single primary, they have to compete in 50 state contests. States have a choice. They can hold a primary, or they can hold a caucus. Primary An election in which voters cast a secret ballot for their preferred candidate Caucus A meeting in which voters discuss and openly vote for their preferred party nominee

22 Primary Elections Four types of primaries today: Open primaries any registered voter may vote. Closed primaries limited to voters registered as members of the party. Partially open primaries allow independents but not voters of the other primary to participate. Top two primaries candidates of both parties are on the ballot and the top two finishers compete in the general election. Source: National Council of State Legislatures, 2014.

23 calendar and results.html

24 Phases of the nominating campaign Year before first state contest fundraising, debates, campaigning State primaries and caucuses quest for delegates National party conventions formal selection of nominees

25 Primaries First state contest is held with the Iowa caucus Followed by the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina primary, and the Nevada caucus. Super Tuesday

26 National Convention 1. National conventions happen every four years. 2. Delegates are responsible for nominating candidates for their party. Voters do not directly nominate candidates for the presidency. 3. Candidate must obtain a simple majority of delegate votes. In order to secure the nomination, 4.Delegates are usually party leaders or elected official who are politically bound to vote in accordance with the outcome of a state s primary or caucus, but they are not legally bound. 5.The national conventions are also responsible for developing party platforms.

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28 How Clinton Won the Nomination Hillary Clinton Highest level of name recognition: First Lady ; US Senator from New York ; US Secretary of State Extremely well organized & funded campaign (the early winner)

29 How Trump Won the Nomination Donald Trump Highest level of name recognition Real estate business & reality TV Publicity advantage knew how to attract media attention

30 Winning Iowa / New Hampshire Critical name recognition / fundraising

31 McGraw Hill Education. Campaign Funds: The Money Chase Campaign costs are high, and they keep rising Spending for Senate and House candidates: In 1980, $250 million In 1990, $400 million In 2016, costs exceeding $2 billion Incumbents have an advantage in fundraising Hard money: money given directly to the candidate that can be used as he or she chooses Raised from parties, individuals, and interest groups More than a billion was spent by super PACs in 2016 Figure 8 5 Presidential Campaign Spending, 2016 Media expenditures, mostly for televised advertising, account for the largest share of presidential campaign spending.

32 Current Events, Recent Polls, & Review Background influences on campaigns Presidential nominating races Presidential general election Upcoming Assignments

33 General Election Campaign Strategy

34 General Election Campaign Strategy

35 General Election Campaign Strategy The campaign in the battleground states is intense. During the 2016 general election, roughly 95% of Trump and Clinton's campaign appearances were concentrated in just 12 states, the states where each candidate had a shot at victory.

36 Deciding Factors Media Coverage & Ads Increasingly used to stir up Party loyalists to get out and vote.

37 Summary 1. Factors outside the candidates control play a large role in determining the election s outcome Voters party loyalties 2. Importance of the invisible primary Build name recognition Raise money in advance of voting 3. Influence of the Electoral College on candidates strategies battleground states 4. Influence of money televised political advertising and get outthe vote efforts

38 Current Events, Recent Events, & Review Reasons why US has a two party system Party Realignment causes & impact Republican & Democratic Party coalitions Upcoming Assignment

39 Unit 3 Upcoming In Class Topic & Reading Assignments Assignments Due Dates

40 Long image descriptions APPENDIX A McGraw Hill Education

41 Primary Elections and the Weakening of Party Organizations Initially party organizations enjoyed nearly complete control of elections especially, in selecting nominees, who would then share the spoils of office Nomination: the selection of the individual who will run as the party s candidate Party bosses lost their power to primary elections, which give control of nominations to the voters Loss of party control to candidates In Europe, where there are no primary elections, the parties are stronger McGraw Hill Education.

42 The Candidate Centered Campaign Campaigns today are largely controlled by the candidate Candidates build a personal organization that is used for the campaign and is disbanded after the election The election game requires a great deal of money McGraw Hill Education.

43 Organization and Strategy: Political Consultants Professional political consultants are the key operators today Campaign strategists Pollsters Media producers Fundraising experts Packaging: highlighting aspects of candidate s positions and background thought to be attractive to voters McGraw Hill Education.

44 Voter Contacts: Pitched Battles Campaigning now often begins two years in advance of Election Day Air wars the mass media is the main battleground Ground wars Web wars Most important factor has proven to be voters satisfaction with the party in power Prospective voting based on a candidate s promises Retrospective voting based on past performance McGraw Hill Education.

45 Figure 8 4 The Vote of Selected Demographic Groups in Presidential Elections Appendix By race and ethnicity: 42% of white voters; 56% of Asian voters; 62% of Hispanic voters; and 90% of black voters voted for the Democratic Party s candidates By religion: 34% of white Protestants; 45% of white Catholics; and 76% of Jews By age: 47% of those aged 60 and older; 49% of those between 30 and 59 years old; and 56% of those between 18 and 29 By income: 40% of those in the top third; 47% of those in the middle third; and 63% of those in bottom third McGraw Hill Education. Jump back to slide containing original image

46 Primary Elections Appendix States that use open primaries include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. The District of Columbia uses closed primaries, along with the states of Delaware, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming. States that use partially open primaries include Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia. The four states that use top two primaries are California, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington. McGraw Hill Education. Jump back to slide containing original image