Election 2012 in Review

Transcription

1 Election 2012 in Review Photo source: AP, Bradenton Herald John John Coleman Coleman University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Clark University Harrington Lecture, October 24, 2011 Clark University Bascom Harrington Hill Society, Lecture, November October 24, 13,

2 The Presidential Election A challenging environment for President Obama Photo source: AP John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

3 Approval of Handling the Economy: Start of Term Through Disapprove Approve Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

4 The Presidential Election A challenging environment for the incumbent leads opponents to sense opportunity John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

5 Photos: AP John Coleman University of Wisconsin

6 John Coleman University of Wisconsin

7 John Coleman University of Wisconsin

8 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Higher support among somewhat conservative Percent of people who are somewhat conservative who support the candidate minus the percent of people who are very conservative who support the candidate 0% -5% GINGRICH PAUL ROMNEY SANTORUM -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Higher support among very conservative Iowa NH SC Fla Nev Ariz Mich Mass Ohio Tenn VT Ga Ala Miss Ill Lou Md Wis John Coleman University of Wisconsin

9 The Presidential Election As the Republican nomination battle heats up Some improving signs for the President John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

10 Approval of Handling the Economy: January 2011 Through Present Disapprove 2012 Approve Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

11 Approval of Handling the Economy: January 2011 Through Present Up Source: Pollster.com John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

12 If Voters Vote the Trendline Unemployment rate change Jan-Oct Year President Outcome -0.6 points 1984 Reagan Re-elected -0.5 points 1964 Johnson Re-elected -0.4 points 1996 Clinton Re-elected -0.4 points 2012 Obama -0.2 points 2004 GW Bush Re-elected -0.2 points 1972 Nixon Re-elected -0.2 points 1976 Ford Defeated -0.1 points 1956 Eisenhower Re-elected 0.0 points 1992 Bush Defeated +0.3 points 1948 Truman Re-elected +1.2 points 1980 Carter Defeated John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

13 If Voters Vote the Trendline Unemployment rate change Jan-Oct Year President Outcome -0.6 points 1984 Reagan Re-elected -0.5 points 1964 Johnson Re-elected -0.4 points 1996 Clinton Re-elected -0.4 points 2012 Obama Re-elected -0.2 points 2004 GW Bush Re-elected -0.2 points 1972 Nixon Re-elected -0.2 points 1976 Ford Defeated -0.1 points 1956 Eisenhower Re-elected 0.0 points 1992 Bush Defeated +0.3 points 1948 Truman Re-elected +1.2 points 1980 Carter Defeated John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

14 Models Mixed, but Edge Obama Source: PS: Political Science and Politics John Coleman University of Wisconsin

15 John Coleman University of Wisconsin

16 End of RNC John Coleman University of Wisconsin

17 End of DNC John Coleman University of Wisconsin

18 First debate John Coleman University of Wisconsin

19 Source: Pollyvote.com John Coleman University of Wisconsin

20 Results Status quo, but advantage Democrats Obama 51-49% popular, electoral Senate: +2 seats for Democrats House: +5 seats for Democrats, 7 undecided John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

21 Results Turnout down, but votes still being counted Obama down about 7 million Romney down about 1 million Obama first since 1832 to have drop in popular vote share in re-election to 2 nd term John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

22 Results President s support drops among most groups Obama wins all but one battleground state John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

23 Only Two States Change in 2012 Republican pickups Source: CNN.com John Coleman University of Wisconsin

24 Most Counties Move To Right Source: New York Times John Coleman University of Wisconsin

25 Most Groups Moved To Right Including the Young and Women Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

26 Hispanics & Asians Shifted to Left Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

27 Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

28 Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

29 Women and the Young Moved to the Right But Not in Key Battlegrounds Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

30 Less Key Battlegrounds Match the National Patterns Source: Washington Post John Coleman University of Wisconsin

31 Obama Strategic Advantages Started negative ads early to define Romney Romney ads (like Obama s) stayed negative, did not strongly redefine Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

32 Obama Strategic Advantages Obama controlled his ads: cohesive message Obama campaign ran 86% of all pro-obama spots (503k through Oct.) Romney campaign ran 36% of all pro-romney spots (191k thru Oct.) More reliance on ads run by groups, less message control John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

33 Obama Strategic Advantages Obama s ads cheaper, more bang for buck Campaigns purchasing strategies differ Groups pay higher rates than candidates Superior microtargeting John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

34 Ad Strategies Obama themes, October Taxes 49% Econ. Inequity 26% Deficit 21% Health care 16% Jobs 15% Romney themes, October Jobs 82% Deficit 59% Govt spending 47% Taxes 36% Recess./stimulus 25% Of the 59% of voters who identified the economy as the most important issue in their vote, Romney won... But only by

35 Ad Strategies Obama themes, October Taxes 49% Econ. Inequity 26% Deficit 21% Health care 16% Jobs 15% Romney themes, October Jobs 82% Deficit 59% Govt spending 47% Taxes 36% Recess./stimulus 25% Most important candidate trait: Shares my values (27%): Romney +13 pts Is a strong leader (18%): Romney +23 pts Has vision for future (29%): Romney +9 pts Cares about people like me (21%): Obama +63 pts

36 Supporters Obama Women +11 pts Latino +44 Moderate +15 < $50, Low/no relig services +17 Romney Men +7 pts White +20 Independent +5 >$50, Freq. relig services +20

37 The Gender Gap and Race/Ethnicity Black women: +93 points Obama Latino women: +53 points Obama White women: +14 points Romney Black men: Latino men: White men: +76 points Obama +32 points Obama +27 points Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

38 The Age Gap and Race/Ethnicity Black 18-29: Latino 18-29: White 18-29: +83 points Obama +51 points Obama +7 points Romney Black 45-64: Latino 45-64: White 45-64: +86 points Obama +37 points Obama +23 points Romney John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

39 Results in the States Democrats gain 3 state legislatures Now control 18 Republicans steady at 26 Remainder have split control Republicans add 1 governorship, now 30 John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

40 Wisconsin Wisconsin... remains Wisconsin Barack Obama (D) wins presidential Tammy Baldwin (D) wins US Senate, to join Ron Johnson (R) US House delegation split 5R, 3D Republicans regain control of State Senate and unified control of state government Scott Walker approval is in exit polls 18% of those approving of Gov. Walker... voted for President Obama John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

41 Conclusion Status quo election with edge to Democrats nationally Economy somewhat defused as issue allowed Democrats room to mobilize on other issues Republicans control more state legislatures and governorships John Coleman - University of Wisconsin

42 Conclusion Republicans face demographic campaign challenges Democrats face fiscal/political challenges John Coleman - University of Wisconsin