President Donald Trump: how and what next?
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1 President Donald Trump: how and what next? Dr Tom Packer Rothermere American Institute Tuesday 28 March 2017
2 Summary Polling error how/where/why? Who voted for Trump? Why did they? How Popular is Trump? What to worry about/hope for
3 Trump 45.9% Clinton 48% 3
4 How wrong were the polls Year Error in last 7 days of election cycle Year % Average 2.39 % Error in last 7 days 4
5 Where the errors were 5
6 Where the polls were wrong- white working class surge for Trump - key to polling error 6
7 The weighted average includes states where the tipping-point chance was below Iowa s 1.3 percent. Non-college educated whites overrepresented in the swing states Swing states had an above average share of white noncollege voters STATE TIPPING -POINT CHANC E Florida 17.6% 40.1% Pennsylvania Michigan North Carolina Virginia Colorado Ohio Wisconsin Minnesota Nevada Arizona New Mexico New Hampshire Georgia Iowa Weighted avg. of tipping-point states United States 45.3 WHITE NON- COLLEGE SHARE
8 Trump s luck 8
9 What made the popular vote (almost) a tie? 9
10 Ethnic Revolution that wasn t 10
11 Pattern stayed the same? 11
12 I love the uneducated noncollege educated whites gave Trump the White House 12
13 Non-college educated whites key in the swing states 13
14 Trump s youth vote? 14
15 Why did they? 15
16 Hillary Clinton advert Mirrors 16
17 Hillary Clinton advertising more personal less policy orientated 17
18 Pol science models fundamentals prevailed? 18
19 Was it personality / s? 19
20 Trump won on policy not personality: which candidate has the right temperament? Clinton Trump Other/ no answer Both do 5% Only Clinton does 49% Only Trump does 29% Neither does 14% 20% 77% 3% 90% 5% 5% 2% 97% 1% 12% 67% 21% 20
21 Trump won on policy not personality II TRUMP S MARGIN AMONG VOTERS WHO RATED STATE ONLY CLINTON FAVORABLE ONLY TRUMP FAVORABLE BOTH UNFAVORABLE Kentucky Georgia Florida Texas Wisconsin N. Carolina Missouri Indiana Ohio S. Carolina Pennsylvania Nevada Iowa Michigan Minnesota Utah Arizona Colorado Virginia New Mexico N. Hampshire Washington New Jersey Maine Oregon Average
22 Most important Issue Facing the Country (CNN) Clinton Trump Other/ no answer Foreign policy 13% Immigration 13% 60% 33% 7% 33% 64% 3% Economy 52% 52% 41% 7% Terrorism 18% 40% 57% 3% 22
23 Immigration advert Two Americas 23
24 General Election II 24
25 The nearly Presidents? Rick Santorum Pat Buchanan 25
26 A western backlash not made in the US 26
27 Values voters remain (mostly) loyal 27
28 Values voters II-why Judge Antonin Scalia 28
29 Is Trump Popular? 29
30 Trump approval All adults 43% 51% Voters (registered or likely) 47% 49% SURVEY METHOD Live caller 42% 52% Online or automated 47% 48% 30
31 Most unpopular president at this stage since records started. Will he do/achieve nothing? 31
32 Big shift in people thinking the country on the right track 32
33 Disapproval of his unique style 33
34 What to fear/hope for? 34
35 People s fears/hopes of Trump Standard GOP Agenda Judge Neil Gorusch Vice-President Mike Pence 35
36 Protectionism/immigration/ Anti-interventionism? Attorney General Jeff Sessions 36
37 Fascism/right-wing authoritarian? Stephen Bannon, Assistant to the President 37
38 Corrupt? 38
39 Authoritarian/breakdown of liberal norms? 39
40 Incompetent/over his head? 40
41 Good news for Britain? 41
42 Conclusions Polling errors were small but disproportionately in the right states for Trump. Trump was saved from disaster and outperformed polls due to gaining enormous support from anti immigration/anti-free trade white working class voters. Early signs are unpopular/badly organised administration, but early days. Trump s policies continue to be more popular than he is. Important to identify what aspect of Trump is most worrying different concerns would imply a different style of opposition. 42
43 QUESTIONS?
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