Race, Immigration and America s s Changing Electorate. William H. Frey The Brookings Institution
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1 Race, Immigration and America s s Changing Electorate William H. Frey The Brookings Institution
2 Race, Immigration and America's Changing Electorate Race-Ethnicity and Eligible Voter Growth Demographic and Voter Profiles Immigration as an Issue Race and Political Geography Source: William H. Frey
3 Growth in US Minority Populations, Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census estimates * Non Hispanics
4 Race-Ethnic Structure of US Population % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
5 Eligible Voters as Share of Total Population: Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* 77% 22% 2% 30% 66% 4% 39% 27% 34% 50% 23% 27% Under Age 18 Age 18+, Non Citizen Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis of 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
6 EVs: Percent Registered and Voting 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Percent Registering Percent Voting Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
7 US Population Total, Eligible Voters, Likely Voters Population Eligible Voters Voters 2% 2% 2% 6% 9% 3% 2% 15% 5% 11% 12% 12% 66% 74% 78% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
8 Hispanic Shares --- State Population, Voters States With Largest Hispanic Share Populations New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Florida Colorado New York New Jersey Illinois Voters Population Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS
9 Education of Eligible Voters: Race-Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* LT HS HS grad Some Coll Coll Grad Source: William H. Frey 2007 CPS
10 Hispanic Education: Eligible Voters vs. Adult Non Citizens 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Eligible Voters Adult Non Citizens LT HS HS grad Some Coll Coll Grad Source: William H. Frey 2007 CPS
11 Party Affiliation: Race-Ethnicity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Democrat Lean Democrat Independent Lean Republican Republican Source: William H. Frey 2006 GSS
12 Political Ideology: Race-Ethnicity 100% % 23 80% % 15 60% 44 50% % 38 30% 11 20% % % Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Liberal Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly Conservative Extremely Conservative Source: William H. Frey analysis of 2006 GSS * Non Hispanics
13 Important Election Issues Likely Voters Economy & Jobs 27.1 Health Care 16.5 War in Iraq Illegal Immigration Terrorism- Security Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
14 Important Election Issues - Whites Economy & Jobs 25.5 Health Care 15.3 War in Iraq Illegal Immigration Terrorism- Security Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
15 Important Election Issues - Blacks Economy & Jobs 35 Health Care 22.6 War in Iraq 19.5 Illegal Immigration Terrorism- Security Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
16 Important Election Issues - Hispanics Economy & Jobs 25.7 Health Care 22.9 War in Iraq 25.1 Illegal Immigration 12.1 Terrorism- Security Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
17 Feel Strongly- Immigration Good for America Likely Voters Whites* 43 Blacks* 21 Hispanic 58 White Coll grad 51 White Some Coll 41 White HS or Less Source: William H. Frey analysis of Democracy Core Survey, 2007
18 Illegal Immigration- A Very Big Problem Likely Voters Whites* 50 Blacks* Hispanic White Coll grad 38 White Some Coll 52 White HS or Less Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
19 Immigrant Magnet and Growth States Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Magnet NonMagnet, High Immigrant Growth NonMagnet, Moderate Immigrant Growth
20 Immigration- A Very Big Problem White Likely Voters for State Groupings All Whites HS or less Some College+ Immigrant Magnet NonMagnet High Growth Non Magnet Moderate Growth Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Surrey, 2008
21 Immigration- A Very Big Problem White Likely Voters for Urban-Suburban Areas HS or less Some College+ City Suburb Small Town Source: William H. Frey analysis of Peter D. Hart Immigration Survey, 2008
22 Hispanic Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
23 Asian Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
24 Black Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 20 % Share % Share 3-10 % Share LT 3 % Share
25 White Share of Eligible Voters Source: William H. Frey analysis GT 85 % Share % Share % Share LT 60 % Share
26 Red, Blue and Purple States Source: William H. Frey analysis Blue Red Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple
27 Eligible Voter Profiles of Red-Blue-Purple State Groupings Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 2.5 Solid Blue Solid Red Whites* Blacks* Hispanics Asians* Others* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
28 EV Growth by Race-Ethnicity Fast Growing and Slow Growing Purple States Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple Asians and Others* Hispanics Blacks* Whites* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
29 EV Growth, by Race-Ethnicity Five Fast Growing Purple States Nevada Arizona Colorado Florida New Mexico Asians and Others* Hispanics Blacks* Whites* Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources * Non Hispanics
30 Eligible Voters in Demographic Groups: FG and SG Purple States Fast Growing Purple Slow Growing Purple 16% 40% 25% 49% 15% 20% 15% 20% Minorities Whites Age 65+ White Wkg Age: Coll grad White Wkg Age: Not Col grad Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources
31 Eligible Voters in Demographic Groups Arizona and Pennsylvania Arizona Pennsylvania 13% 39% 29% 50% 17% 19% 13% 20% Minorities Whites Age 65+ White Wkg Age: Coll grad White Wkg Age: Not Col grad Source: William H. Frey analysis of US Census Sources
32 Minority Shares: Voters of All Ages vs. Age EVs New Mexico All Voters Evs New York Arizona California All Voters Evs All Voters Evs All Voters Evs Florida All Voters Evs Hispanics Asians* Blacks* OtherNonwhites* Source: William H. Frey analysis and 2007 CPS * Non Hispanics
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