The Cook Political Report 2012 Election Outlook

Transcription

1 The Cook Political Report 2012 Election Outlook Presented by: David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor Southwest Ag Issues Summit September 10, Web:

2 How Did We Get Here? Austin, TX Lebanon, TN In 2008, Obama won 81% of counties with a Whole Foods, just 36% of counties with a Cracker Barrel

3 The Growing Organic/Nostalgic Divide Election Year Election Winner Whole Foods Counties Cracker Barrel Counties Culture Gap 1992 Clinton (D) 60% 40% 20% 1996 Clinton (D) 66% 41% 25% 2000 Bush (R) 41% 74% 33% 2004 Bush (R) 39% 78% 39% 2008 Obama (D) 81% 36% 45%

4 I. The GOP Nomination Race Republicans were actually four brackets

5 Country Club Bracket Tea Party Bracket Social Con. Bracket Bracket

6 Then: Dragged on like a Pub Crawl The Delegate Math: -Romney: 1,522 -Santorum: 255 -Paul: 158 -Gingrich: 138 What We Learned the Morning After: - Organization mattered, and others couldn t catch Mitt - But for a teetotaler, he sure staggered across the finish line

7 II. The Fall Race for 1600

8 Three Factors to Watch

9 1. Jobs & The Economy

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11 Presidential Job Approval

12 2. Campaign Quality Obama Romney Swing State Ad Strategy Advantage: Obama

13 Campaign Quality (Continued) Obama Romney Party Conventions Advantage: Obama

14 Mitt Romney s Image Problem Source: HuffPollster

15 3. Voter Enthusiasm vs Demographic Current Obama% 2008 Likelihood to Vote 2012 Likelihood to Vote Net Change Year Olds 60% 78% 60% -18% Over 65 Years 41% 83% 84% +1% Democrats 90% 85% 82% -3% Republicans 6% 83% 87% +4% Whites 38% 87% 82% -5% African-Americans 89% 87% 79% -8% Hispanics/Latinos 59% 77% 68% -9% Source: Gallup

16 The Disaffected Undecideds Candidate Image All Voters Undecided Voters Barack Obama 48% Positive, 40% Negative 27% Positive, 49% Negative Mitt Romney 40% Positive, 45% Negative 9% Positive, 49% Negative Ron Paul 26% Positive, 32% Negative 34% Positive, 26% Negative

17 Why Could This Guy Tip the Race?

18 Less of a Factor? Paul Ryan After the 2008 Palin debacle, we thought Romney would play it safe. Which potential VP will voters see? Or Congressman with guts or just plain nuts?

19 The Electoral College Math Source: HuffPollster My five states to watch: VA, IA, CO, NH, PA

20 III. The House (Dems need +25)

21 What s the Difference Between These Two?

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23 Three Wave Elections in a Row 2006 &

24 Key: Independents in Battleground Districts 2006 National Exit Poll: House Vote by Party ID 2010 National Exit Poll: House Vote by Party ID

25 2012 Looking More Like a Whirlpool whirl pool/ˈ(h)wərlˌpo ol - A rapidly rotating mass of water in a river or sea into which objects may be drawn, typically caused by the meeting of conflicting currents.

26 Three Currents Helping Democrats

27 1. It s Just Not 2010 Anymore In 60 Republican-held Battleground Districts, GOP advantage with Independents has ebbed or even evaporated Smaller GOP edge or tie suggests more neutral environment Dems bound to win back some GOP wave seats

28 2. New Minority-Majority Districts Virtually certain Women & Minorities will be over 50% of Democratic Caucus for 1 st time ever in 2013

29 3. Decline of the Tea Party Both in electoral share & larger popularity Only 19 of 87 GOP Freshmen joined Tea Party Caucus

30 Three Currents Helping Republicans

31 1. Decline of the Blue Dog Dems Democrats don t just need 25 seats, they need 35-40

32 Bottom Line: Redistricting saved 12 GOP seats from going to Dems 2. Redistricting Edge VA: 8R-3D Map NC: 10R-3D Map

33 3. The Top of the Ticket Obama s concentrated support pattern makes him a drag on Democrats in many Congressional districts

34 A Sea Change in the House But More Generational Than Partisan 61 Districts with no incumbent on the ballot in November (Record since 1992)

35 If 2012 Election Were Held Tomorrow

36 IV. The Senate (GOP needs +4) Only reason Dems have a majority? Only a third of the Senate was up in 2010!

37 GOP Doesn t Even Need to Win Blue States Democratic retirements: Ben Nelson (Nebraska) Kent Conrad (N. Dakota) Vulnerable Democrats: Jon Tester (Montana) Claire McCaskill (MO)

38 GOP: Four Blue State Opportunities Too Vulnerable open seats in NM (Bingaman), VA (Webb), WI (Kohl) Sherrod Brown Vulnerable in Ohio

39 But, Democrats Have Some Outs Open seat in Maine (Snowe) changed everything Vulnerable Republicans Scott Brown (Massachusetts) & Dean Heller (Nevada)

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41 Post-Election Danger: The Fiscal Cliff What Happens to Bush Tax Cuts, Defense Cuts, Domestic Cuts, Medicare Doc Fix & Farm Bill?