2018 Midterm Elections: Battle for House, Senate
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1 2018 Midterm Elections: Battle for House, Senate October 23, 2018
2 Federal Policy Team Mike Ferguson Leader, Baker Hostetler s Federal Policy Team Former Congressman from New Jersey 2
3 Federal Policy Team Mike Ferguson Jim Ellis CEO of Ellis Insight 3
4 2018: Big Questions Will Democrats meet expectations and win House majority, or will GOP defy odds and political history? Will Republicans leverage favorable electoral map to maintain or even add to current Senate majority? 4
5 2018: Big Questions For Democrats and Republicans, 2018 elections all about Trump: Will Democrats anti-trump sentiment fuel historic turnout? Can GOP rally Trump voters to turn out when Trump isn t on ballot? Is Kavanaugh bounce for GOP real and can it be sustained? Wildcard: What will Trump do or say in next 14 days to affect elections? 5
6 2018: Senate elections Republicans control Because Pence can break ties, Democrats must win two net seats for majority GOP defending nine seats; Democrats defending 26 seats Trump won 10 states in 2016 where Senate Democrats are seeking re-election in
7 2018: Senate elections Wash. Calif. Ore. Nev. Idaho Utah Mont. Wyo. Colo. N.D. S.D. Neb. Kan. Minn. (2)* Iowa Mo. Wis. Ill. Mich. Ohio Ind. W.Va. Ky. Pa. Va. N.Y. Vt. Maine N.J. Md. Del. N.H. Mass. R.I. Conn. Tenn. N.C. Ariz. N.M. Okla. Ark. S.C. Miss. (2)* Ala. Ga. Texas La. = Democrat held seats Fla. = Republican held seats = No Senate campaigns 7
8 2018: Senate elections Wash. Calif. Ore. Nev. Idaho Utah Mont. Wyo. Colo. N.D. S.D. Neb. Kan. Minn. (2)* Iowa Mo. Wis. Ill. Mich. Ohio Ind. W.Va. Ky. Pa. Va. N.Y. Vt. Maine N.J. Md. Del. N.H. Mass. R.I. Conn. Tenn. N.C. Ariz. N.M. Okla. Ark. S.C. Miss. (2)* Ala. Ga. Texas La. = Democrat held seats Fla. = Republican held seats = No Senate campaigns = States Trump won in
9 2018: Senate elections North Dakota Heitkamp is Democrats most vulnerable Senator why? Trump defeated Clinton in North Dakota 63-27% in 2016 Sen. Heidi Heitkamp Heitkamp voted against tax cuts, repealing Affordable Care Act and Kavanaugh but did vote to confirm Gorsuch Cramer held statewide House seat since 2013 Cramer: 56% Heitkamp: 40% Oct Rep. Kevin Cramer Cramer: 53% Heitkamp: 41% Sept. 29- Oct. 2 9
10 2018: Senate elections Missouri Trump won 57% in 2016 in increasingly Republican Missouri McCaskill aggressive campaigner, touts pocketbook issues Sen. Claire McCaskill Still, McCaskill voted against tax cuts, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh Remington Research Hawley: 47% McCaskill: 46% Oct Josh Hawley Hawley: 50% McCaskill: 47% Oct Hawley: 45% McCaskill: 44% Sept. 27-Oct. 7 10
11 2018: Senate elections West Virginia Trump s best state won 69% in 2016 Manchin s successful political brand faces toughest test Sen. Joe Manchin Manchin voted against tax cuts and repealing Affordable Care Act but voted for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh Manchin: 53% Morrisey: 47% Oct Patrick Morrisey Manchin: 49% Morrisey: 45% Oct Manchin: 41% Morrisey: 40% Oct
12 2018: Senate elections Indiana Trump won 57% in 2016 Pence served as governor, House member Sen. Joe Donnelly Donnelly voted against tax cuts, repealing Affordable Care Act and Kavanaugh but voted for Gorsuch Braun: 44% Donnelly: 40% Oct Mike Braun Donnelly: 41% Braun: 40% Oct Donnelly: 43% Braun: 41% Sept. 29-Oct. 2 12
13 2018: Senate elections Florida Trump defeated Clinton narrowly 49-48% Nelson elected to House in 1978, Senate in 2000 Sen. Bill Nelson Gov. Rick Scott Scott two-term governor How will Hurricane Michael impact turnout in GOP panhandle? Scott: 51% Nelson: 46% Oct Nelson: 52% Scott: 46% Oct Nelson: 50% Scott: 45% Oct
14 2018: Senate elections Montana Trump won 56% in Montana in 2016, but Tester hasn t been as vulnerable as other Senate Democrats in red states Tester voted against tax cuts, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh Sen. Jon Tester Tester campaigns as third-generation dirt farmer while criticizing opponent as Maryland Matt Matt Rosendale Tester: 49% Rosendale: 45% Sept. 28-ct Tester: 47% Rosendale: 45% Sept
15 2018: Senate elections Arizona Two female House members battling for GOP open seat after Sen. Jeff Flake chose not to seek re-election Trump won Arizona in 2016 with 49% Rep. Martha McSally Arizona is Democrats best chance of flipping GOP seat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema McSally: 48% Sinema: 46% Oct Sinema: 47% McSally: 44% Oct
16 2018: Senate elections Nevada Heller only Republican seeking re-election in state Trump didn t win in 2016 Heller first elected in 2012 when Obama won Nevada Sen. Dean Heller Rosen first-term House member criticized Heller for voting for tax cuts and to repeal Affordable Care Act Rep. Jacky Rosen Rosen: 48% Heller: 46% Oct Heller: 48% Rosen: 41% Oct Heller: 47% Rosen: 45% Oct
17 2018: Senate elections Tennessee Blackburn, House member since 2002, showing signs of pulling away from Bredesen, former two-term governor Trump won Tennessee in 2016 with 61 percent Rep. Marsha Blackburn Blackburn: 54% Bredesen: 40% Oct Blackburn: 50% Bredesen: 42% Oct. 2-5 Former Gov. Phil Bredesen Blackburn: 48% Bredesen: 43% Sept. 29-Oct. 2 17
18 2018: Senate elections Sleeper races for Democrats, Republicans Indicted on federal corruption charges but charges dropped after hung jury Severely admonished by Senate Ethics Committee Sen. Bob Menendez Leading narrowly but can t pull away from former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin Trump called him Lyin Ted in 2016, accused Cruz father of involvement in JFK assassination Now Cruz needs Trump s help to put away upstart challenge from super-funded House Democrat Sen. Ted Cruz 18
19 2018:House elections GOP currently hold 235 seats, Democrats 193 seats, 7 vacancies Democrats need to gain 23 net seats to win House majority of 218 seats 25 Republican-held districts Clinton won in Republican open seats, driven by retirements, term limits Campaign cash flooding to Democrats: o o 110 Democrats outraised GOP incumbents or nominees in Q3 More than 60 Democrats raised more than $1 million in Q3 19
20 2018:House elections GOP weighted down by Trump fatigue, especially in suburban districts These Republicans face massive gender gaps among college-educated and younger women Post-Kavanaugh GOP grip on exurban, rural districts tightens Some GOP candidates gaining as Trump approvals rise slightly But momentum all with Democrats: o o Will Nov. 6 be a tsunami? Or will combination of anti-trump/gop retirements/dems cash be just enough? 20
21 2018: House elections President s Midterm Party Losses Presidential job approval at midterm Midterm election House seats gained or lost by president's party Clinton Bush Reagan Bush Nixon Ford Carter Clinton Obama Reagan Obama Bush % 63% 63% 58% 58% 54% 49% 46% 45% 42% 40% 38%
22 2018: House elections Wash. Calif. Ore. Nev. Idaho Utah Mont. Wyo. Colo. N.D. S.D. Neb. Kan. Minn. Wis. Iowa Ill. Mo. Mich. Ohio Ind. W.Va. Ky. Pa. Va. N.Y. Vt. Maine N.J. Md. Del. N.H. Mass. R.I. Conn. Tenn. N.C. Ariz. N.M. Okla. Ark. S.C. Miss. Ala. Ga. Texas La. Alaska Hawaii Fla. = States with key battleground House campaigns 22
23 2018: House elections Republicans can hold House majority but only if Trump: No (more) self-inflicted political wounds Trump energizes GOP, gets presidential voters to turn out Trump doesn t (further) alienate suburban women GOP builds on Kavanaugh momentum 23
24 2018: House elections But the math for Republicans is hard Republicans poised to win only two seats held by Democrats More than dozen Republican-held seats already likely lost to Democrats More than 50 additional GOP-held seats rated toss-up or in jeopardy Republicans would need to win overwhelming percentage of these at-risk seats to maintain majority 24
25 Questions The Honorable Mike Ferguson
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