2016: An Election Year to Remember. Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio

Transcription

1 2016: An Election Year to Remember Ron Elving Senior Washington Editor National Public Radio

2 Anger and Anxiety An Election Year to Remember : Ron Elving / NPR FMI / Meat Conference February 22, 2016 Nashville

3 Did You See This Coming?

4 Fundamental Questions What are voters anxious about? What are voters angry about? Is this real revolution or party revolt? What are the consequences?

5 Overview What Just Happened What Happens Next Why It s All Happening What to Expect in November What to Expect Next Year

6 What Just Happened

7 What Just Happened Antonin Scalia ( ) Supreme Court Justice Leading jurist Movement icon

8 What Just Happened Immediate politicization Obama s choice of successor Senate reaction and rejection SCOTUS as campaign issue

9 What Just Happened GOP South Carolina GOP Primary Trump by 10 Rubio over Cruz by.02% Jeb Bush calls it an era

10 The House of Bush The last time the GOP won the White House without a Bush on the ticket was in 1972

11 What Just Happened Democrats Nevada Caucuses Clinton by 5.5 Sanders again wins young voters 7-1 Clinton wins women, blacks, the over 45

12 What Happens Next GOP Nevada Caucuses Tomorrow Trump far ahead but Democrats S.C. Primary Saturday Clinton far ahead but

13 What Happens Next Super Tuesday on March 1 The SEC Primary or at least the Southern primary Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma

14 What Happens Next Super Tuesday on March 1 Vermont, Mass, Minn, Colo Most GOP states proportional Most delegates of any day

15 What Happens Next Ohio and Florida on March 15 GOP rules allow winner take all Still possible for tide to turn Early look at ticket? Trump-Rubio? / Rubio-Kasich?

16 Florida-Ohio Power Play

17 When Else Could Happen?

18 Why It s All Happening Voters say no to dynasty Jeb down, Hillary struggling No third terms Not for Bush, Obama, or Clinton Historical precedent Young voters more demanding

19 Why It s All Happening Voters are feeling anxious Economic insecurity Cultural unease Immigration Terrorism

20 Why It s All Happening Voters are feeling angry And directing their anger at Washington Government Wall Street

21 What to Expect in July GOP to Cleveland, Dems to Philadelphia Trump and Clinton with lead in delegates Both face challenges at convention Restive delegates disrupt both conventions Disunity invites rogue challenges

22 What to Expect in November Contest of divisive personalities Near constant polling & 24/7 coverage Data-driven focus on turnout Electoral College down to 7 states: Fla / Ohio / Penn / Mich / Virgina / N.C. / Colo

23 What to Expect in November Republicans retain control in the House Fortress effect of district maps Close battle for the Senate Senate outcome follows presidential result

24 2016 Elections: Senate Control GOP now has 54 seats GOP has to defend 24 in 2016 GOP seats include 6 in Blue/Purple States WIS / ILL / FLA / PENN / NH / OHIO Additional issues where party splits

25 2016 Elections: Senate Control Dems now have = 46 seats Only 10 on the ballot Only two evidently vulnerable Reid vacancy in Nevada / Bennet in COLO Problems from weak presid. nominee

26 What to Expect Next Year Republican Scenario Presidency regained Budget & Appointive powers (SCOTUS) Repeal of Executive Orders & Actions Repeal of Obamacare, Dodd-Frank Intraparty struggle over replacements

27 What to Expect Next Year Democratic Scenario Presidency retained for third term Budget & Appointive powers (SCOTUS) Extension of Executive Orders & Actions Gridlock with Congress (whether Republican control or divided)

28 Origins of Gridlock In 2008 and 2012 voters gave Democrats control. In 2010 and 2014 voters gave power to GOP. Both parties took their orders from the voters.

29 The Presidential Electorate is Larger than in Midterms 2004: 122 million votes cast 2006: 81 million 2008: 131 million votes cast 2010: 87 million 2012: 124 million votes cast 2014: 78 million

30 The Components That Grow In Presidential Years Younger More Diverse Fewer Are Married Less Educated /Affluent Less Conservative/ Less Republican

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32 Origins of Gridlock In 2016 the voters may restore one party government (probably for Republicans) or they may give mixed signals. Washington also obeys mixed signals.

33 Why Can t The Parties Work Together? Legitimate differences of philosophy The Will of the People (just not the same ones)

34 The Partisan Attitude Many in both parties would rather see problems fester or even worsen than take solutions from the other side or even compromise with the other side.

35 Disappearing Center When system worked in the past it did so by relying on centrists (in both parties) as deal-makers and swing votes.

36 Loss of Lubrication Without centrists to act as lubricant the governing machinery overheats and damages itself and eventually breaks down.

37 Review What Just Happened What Happens Next Why It s All Happening What to Expect in November What to Expect Next Year