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1 Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 20, 2015 BIDEN TOPS TRUMP IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS --- FLORIDA: Biden 45 Trump 42 OHIO: Biden 48 Trump 38 PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 48 Trump 40 Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are clear winners in the Democratic and Republican primaries in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Vice President Joseph Biden runs as well as or better than Clinton against top Republicans in general election matchups in these key swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. While they lead in the race for the nomination, Clinton and Trump have the worst overall favorability ratings among all voters of any of the leading candidates, and the lowest scores for being honest and trustworthy, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida both run better than Trump against Clinton, Biden or U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. If Trump makes a third-party run, results are: Florida Clinton at 37 percent, with 36 percent for Bush and 19 percent for Trump; Ohio Clinton over Bush percent, with 23 percent for Trump; Pennsylvania Clinton tops Bush percent, with Trump at 24 percent. Vice President Joseph Biden, who is spending his time in seclusion, contemplating whether to take on Secretary Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries for president, has some new information to consider, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. In head-to-head matchups against the three leading contenders for the Republican nomination, he runs as well or slightly better than she does. -more-
2 Quinnipiac University Poll/August 20, 2015 page 2 Hillary Clinton s poll numbers are like a leaky faucet: drip drip... drip. She is now getting less than half the vote in all three states Democratic primaries, Brown added. Perhaps most telling is how poorly she scores when all voters in these three key states are asked about her empathy, honesty and temperament. In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she averages a negative percent favorability. Donald Trump is in the same leaky boat, averaging a negative percent favorability. The good news for Clinton is that she remains far ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Biden in the three Democratic primary contests. The first Republican debate mattered, said Brown. Gov. Jeb Bush got middling debate grades and slips in the GOP horse race. Yet he does very well when voters rate the leading Republican candidates on personal characteristics. He scores best on honesty, empathy and temperament to handle an international crisis, while finishing a close second to Trump on leadership. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets very low debate grades and all but disappears from the Republican primary list. Florida Clinton has 48 percent of Florida Democrats, followed by 15 percent for Sanders and 11 percent for Biden, with 17 percent undecided. Among Republicans, Trump gets 21 percent, with 17 percent for Bush and 11 percent each for Rubio and Ben Carson. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 8 percent undecided. In general election matchups in Florida: Bush tops Clinton percent and Rubio leads percent while Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton s 41 percent. Bush leads Biden percent, with Rubio up percent. Biden gets 45 percent to Trump s 42 percent. Sanders trails Bush percent and loses percent to Rubio and percent to Trump. Clinton gets a negative percent favorability rating and voters say percent she is not honest and trustworthy. Biden gets a split percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Trump gets a negative percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is not honest and trustworthy. Bush gets a percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Rubio gets a percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. In the battle of Floridians, former Gov. Jeb Bush is holding off U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and the former mentor to Rubio scores higher when voters rate the two men s personal qualities, Brown said. -more- 2
3 Quinnipiac University Poll/August 20, 2015 page 3 Ohio Ohio Democrats go 47 percent for Clinton, 17 percent for Sanders and 14 percent for Biden, with 12 percent undecided. Gov. John Kasich gets 27 percent of Republicans, with 21 percent for Trump and 7 percent each for Rubio and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. No other candidate tops 6 percent, with 11 percent undecided. In general election matchups: Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for Bush. Rubio has 42 percent to Clinton s 40 percent while Clinton tops Trump percent. Biden gets 42 percent to Bush s 39 percent and gets 42 percent to Rubio s 41 percent. Biden beats Trump percent. Sanders trails Bush percent and loses percent to Rubio. Sanders gets 42 percent to Trump s 40 percent. Ohio voters give Clinton a negative percent favorability rating and say percent she is not honest and trustworthy. Biden gets a split percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Trump gets a negative percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is not honest and trustworthy. Bush gets a negative percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Rubio gets a percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Ohio is important, but if Gov. John Kasich is going to be a serious candidate for the Republican nomination he must broaden his appeal, said Brown. In Pennsylvania and Florida more than half the voters don t know enough about Kasich to have an opinion about him. Pennsylvania Clinton leads among Pennsylvania Democrats with 45 percent, followed by 19 percent for Sanders and 17 percent for Biden, with 12 percent undecided. Trump leads among Republicans with 24 percent, followed by 13 percent for Carson and 10 percent for Rubio. No other candidate tops 7 percent, with 9 percent undecided. In general election matchups: Bush gets 43 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. Rubio tops Clinton percent while Clinton beats Trump percent. Bush is at 43 percent to Biden s 42 percent. Rubio has 44 percent to Biden s 41 percent. -more- 3
4 Quinnipiac University Poll/August 20, 2015 page 4 Biden beats Trump percent. Sanders trails Bush percent and loses percent to Rubio. Sanders gets 44 percent to Trump s 41 percent. Pennsylvania voters give Clinton a negative percent favorability rating and say percent she is not honest and trustworthy. Biden gets a split percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Trump gets a negative percent favorability rating and voters say percent he is not honest and trustworthy. Bush gets a divided percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Rubio gets a percent favorability and voters say percent he is honest and trustworthy. Donald Trump may have the raw horserace numbers, but below the surface there is a looming problem: Pennsylvania voters give him stunningly bad numbers on trust, honesty and favorability, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. And although she is the Democratic front runner, Hillary Clinton s overall numbers are not much better than Trump s. Who gets the love? The one guy who hasn t declared. Vice President Joseph Biden, a Scranton boy made good, is perhaps becoming a more important player in the 2016 presidential race, with a solid grip on the from the gut support of Pennsylvanians. From August 7 18 Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,093 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 477 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points and 345 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points. 1,096 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 371 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points and 353 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points. 1,085 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 443 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 462 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit call (203) , or follow us on 4
5 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Bush 17% 5% 6% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal 1-1 Kasich Pataki Paul Perry Rubio Santorum Trump Walker SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1-2 DK/NA (If Registered Republican) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Perry, Rubio, Santorum, Trump, or Walker? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REGISTERED REPUBLICANS Bush 17% 12% 22% Carson Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Kasich Pataki Paul Perry Rubio Santorum Trump Walker No/No one DK/NA
6 3. (If Registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders and Jim Webb, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Biden 11% 14% 17% Chafee Clinton O'Malley 1-1 Sanders Webb SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA (If Registered Democrat) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Biden, Chafee, Clinton, O'Malley, Sanders, or Webb? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REGISTERED DEMOCRATS Biden 12% 9% 9% Chafee Clinton O'Malley Sanders Webb No/No one DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 38% 41% 40% Bush SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 39% 40% 40% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA
7 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 41% 43% 45% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 38% 42% 42% Bush SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 42% 42% 41% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Biden 45% 48% 48% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Jeb Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 35% 36% 36% Bush SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA
8 12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 36% 34% 33% Rubio SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 41% 42% 44% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Jeb Bush the Republican, and Donald Trump running as an independent, for whom would you vote? Clinton 37% 37% 37% Bush Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA
9 Q Florida Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). FLORIDA REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Fiorina Carson Rubio Kasich Bush Huckabee Biden Walker Cruz Sanders Jindal Chafee Gilmore Webb Pataki O'Malley Santorum Perry Paul Trump Christie Clinton Graham FLORIDA REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio Bush Huckabee Carson Fiorina Walker Kasich Cruz Jindal Perry Trump Santorum Christie Paul Pataki Gilmore Graham FLORIDA DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Biden Clinton Sanders O'Malley Chafee Webb
10 Q Ohio Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). OHIO REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Kasich Carson Rubio Fiorina Sanders Biden Jindal Huckabee Bush Gilmore Webb Walker Cruz Chafee Pataki O'Malley Santorum Christie Paul Clinton Perry Trump Graham OHIO REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio Kasich Carson Huckabee Bush Cruz Fiorina Walker Jindal Santorum Trump Perry Christie Pataki Gilmore Paul Graham OHIO DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Biden Clinton Sanders O'Malley Chafee Webb
11 Q Pennsylvania Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). PENNSYLVANIA REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio Carson Kasich Fiorina Biden Jindal Walker Huckabee Sanders Bush Cruz Chafee Gilmore Webb Santorum O'Malley Pataki Christie Paul Clinton Graham Perry Trump PENNSYLVANIA... REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio Carson Cruz Bush Jindal Santorum Kasich Fiorina Huckabee Walker Trump Perry Christie Paul Graham Gilmore Pataki PENNSYLVANIA... DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Biden Clinton Sanders Chafee O'Malley Webb
12 15. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 37% 36% 38% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 36% 32% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 53% 39% 41% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 38% 35% 35% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 32% 27% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
13 20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 31% 25% 29% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 34% 24% 28% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 5% 3% 2% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 14% 8% 13% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 41% 33% 36% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
14 25. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bobby Jindal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 22% 17% 22% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 28% 55% 28% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 12% 7% 11% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 27% 22% 27% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Perry favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 28% 18% 21% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
15 30. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 52% 40% 46% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 24% 19% 34% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Scott Walker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 28% 21% 26% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 44% 45% 46% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Lincoln Chafee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 7% 2% 6% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED
16 35. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Martin O'Malley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 6% 4% 9% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 28% 30% 28% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jim Webb favorable, unfavorable or haven't you Favorable 7% 4% 8% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Thinking about the recent Republican presidential primary debate on Fox News between Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Trump and Walker; which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, the debate? Bush 7% 3% 5% Carson Christie Cruz Huckabee Kasich Paul Rubio Trump Walker DK/NA Did you watch this debate? Yes 60% 58% 56% No DK/NA
17 46. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 32% 34% 32% No DK/NA Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 39% 37% 40% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 52% 59% 61% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 64% 54% 54% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 40% 38% 40% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 58% 45% 49% No DK/NA Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 52% 53% 56% No DK/NA
18 53. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 61% 61% 65% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 46% 51% 50% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 72% 58% 61% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 34% 31% 38% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 56% 47% 47% No DK/NA Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 42% 43% 43% No DK/NA
19 59. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 38% 33% 36% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 49% 56% 60% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 61% 47% 49% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 40% 38% 42% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 56% 43% 46% No DK/NA Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 45% 49% 51% No DK/NA
20 65. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 29% 28% 30% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Joe Biden has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 49% 53% 57% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Jeb Bush has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 70% 57% 61% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 32% 29% 30% No DK/NA (Split Sample) Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 55% 40% 45% No DK/NA
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