National/State New Political Realities

Transcription

1 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races Highlights of John Davis Political Report Thank you for the opportunity to speak to the North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting at the Grandover! To learn more and to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report:

2 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races NC Forestry Association Annual Meeting Reality #1: Key Trends from 2012 Elections Reality #2: Rise of NC Urban Moderates Reality #3: Likely Winners 2014 Reality #4: The Best Ground Game Wins

3 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races ORCA NARWHAL

4 North Carolina Forestry Association October 2, 2014 Best Ground Game Wins: Trends from 2012 DIGITAL TURNOUT TECHNOLOGY New door knock; New phone call Half of Obama s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 had no listed phone number They lived in the cellular shadows, effectively immune to GOTV efforts. 1 million Obama backers permitted Chicago via app to look at their Facebook Friends

5 North Carolina Forestry Association October 2, 2014 Best Ground Game Wins: Trends from % of Obama s targeted swing-state voters under age 29 with no listed phone were found via Facebook Friends app 600,000 Obama supporters used the app to share targeted info to 5 million Friends Persuade, register, contribute, vote Obama registered 1.8 million new voters Obama spent $100,000 million on technology and data-mining software and geeks

6 Disruptive Demographics: Trends from 2012 HISPANIC VOTERS Powerful voting bloc 25 million strong 10% of all U.S voters; Obama 71% Prevailed over immigration hardliners 3 U.S. Senators; 28 U.S. House members AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS 93% defended 1 st African American Pres Ohio turnout up from 11% 08 to 15% 12 Out performed whites in NC 2 nd time in row

7 Disruptive Demographics: Trends from 2012 WOMEN VOTERS 55% women voted Obama; 68% if single 5 new U.S. Senators; new high total of 20 U.S. House from 76 to 83 women Turnout: US 53% women; NC 55% women YOUNG VOTERS New generation; respected voting bloc yr-olds 19% total voters (18% in 08) Obama carried by 60% (66% in 2008)

8 Dysfunctional Government: U.S. Congress Congressional Vote Ratings : Political middle totaled 344 of : Political middle totaled 137 of : Political middle totaled 4 of vote-ratings/the-most-divided-congressever-at-least-until-next-year POLITICAL MIDDLE

9 Dysfunctional Government: U.S. Congress 1982: Political middle totaled 344 of 435 In 2013, no Senate 2002: Democrat Political was middle more conservative than totaled a Senate 137 Republican; of 435 no Senate Republican 2013: was Political more middle liberal than a Senate Democrat. totaled 4 of 435 Congressional Vote Ratings vote-ratings/the-most-divided-congressever-at-least-until-next-year POLITICAL MIDDLE

10 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races Rise of Urban Moderates

11 National/State New Political Realities North Today, Carolina twice as will many grow by North at least Carolina a million residents people a were decade born. in New York as in South NC Population Carolina. Center, UNC-Chapel Hill

12 North Carolina was Obama s closest win in 2008; Romney s closest win in George Will, Washington Post, 5/30/14

13 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races North Carolina Voters

14 NC Registered Voters 6,583,366 73% Democrats Democrat Republican Unaffiliated 2,759,488 (42%) 2,007,545 (31%) September 27, 2014 Libertarian 43% Democrats ,791,357 (27%) 24,976 (.0037%)

15 NC Registered Voters 6,583,366 73% Democrats Democrat Republican Unaffiliated September 27, 2014 Libertarian Female: 3,529,953 (54%) Male: 2,967,538 (46%) 43% Democrats

16 National/State New Political Realities What Half percent of all Americans of Americans live in live the in blue counties? Half Since of 1990, NC voters North live Carolina s 13 counties voter rolls have grown from 3.5 to 6.5 million Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, Durham, Cumberland, 64% of all new Buncombe, voters New North Hanover, Carolina Gaston, Union, Cabarrus, Pitt, Orange voters are NOT from the South Wake/Mecklenburg/Guilford/Forsyth/Durham In 2012, barely half of all NC voters cast were 1,520,708 native; 49% votes, born same elsewhere as lowest 76

17 NC Senate Districts Republican 2 Swing 17 Democratic

18 NC House Districts Republican 8 Swing 39 Democratic

19 NC Senate Legislative Caucus Fundraising: Mid-Year 2008 & NC Senate GOP candidates: $4.4 million COH NC Senate Democratic candidates: $1.6 million NC House GOP candidates: $4.3 million COH NC House Democratic candidates: $2 million In 2012, GOP legislative candidates: $24.2 million from all sources; Democrats $9 million In 2012, 80% of business PAC $ went to GOP

20 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races NC Congressional Races

21 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races Ninety-three percent of all Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are sitting in districts that Mitt Romney carried. Ninety-six percent of all districts that Democrats hold are districts that President Obama carried. The House is sorted out. Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report

22 U.S. House Map Leans GOP Leans GOP Strong DEM Leans GOP Leans GOP Strong DEM Leans GOP Strong DEM Leans GOP Leans GOP Leans GOP Leans GOP Leans GOP Analysis by NCFEF

23 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races U.S. Senate Race

24 GOP U.S. Senate & House Majorities Likely Midterm elections trend against White House Lose average of 30 House & 4 Senate seats Republicans only need 6 seats for majority Democrats are defending 21 seats; GOP 15 Democrats defending 6 seats in states carried by Romney by 14 pts or more GOP has 1 seat in Obama state (Collins/ME)

25 Mid-Term Elections a Referendum on W/H Overall 41.6% 53.6%

26 Mid-Term Elections a Referendum on W/H Economy Overall 41.6% 40.3% 53.6% 54.3%

27 North Carolina US Senate 2014 Hagan TV Ads 2014 Tillis 1. North Carolina $34.2 million. Hagan & Democratic Allies: $17.3 million (33,800 TV ads) Tillis & Republican Allies: $16.9 million (30,600 TV ads

28 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races The Best Ground Game Wins

29 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races North Carolina is fast becoming an urban dominate SWING state where metropolitan voters are More Moderate than Conservative, More Democratic than Republican, More Pro-Government than Anti-Government, More Independent than Partisan, More Socially Diverse/Tolerant

30 National/State New Political Realities Implications for 2014 Federal and State Races Highlights of John Davis Political Report Thank you for the opportunity to speak to the North Carolina Forestry Association Annual Meeting at the Grandover! To learn more and to subscribe to the John Davis Political Report: