DRA NATIONAL AUDIENCE & COALITION MODELING:

Transcription

1 DRA NATIONAL AUDIENCE & COALITION MODELING: Modeling & Targeting Reluctant Republicans & Disaffected Democrats in a Historic Year

2 2016 DEEP ROOT AUDIENCES Reluctant Republicans Hispanic Persuasion Libertarian Voters Disaffected Democrats Energy Voters Fiscal Conservatives GOP Primary Influentials Immigration GOP GOTV Anti-Terrorism Education Voters DEM GOTV Blue Collar Health Care Voters Swing Voters Free Trade High Disposable Income Young Swing Voters Jobs Voters Minimum Wage Ballot Initiative Senior Swing Voters Social Conservatives Marijuana Ballot Initiative Women Swing Voters

3 DEEP ROOT POV + UNIQUE VOTER COALITIONS IN 2016 Net Favorability - Anti-Trade / Populist Free Trade / Interventionist There are opportunities for unique voter coalitions in 2016, driven in part by two likely presidential nominees with historically high negatives and brands at odds with their party history. 3

4 TRADITIONAL TV TARGETING DEMOGRAPHICS WILL BE INEFFECTIVE IN TRADITIONAL TV Unique coalitions at the top-of-theticket create targeting challenges for down-ballot candidates that can t be solved by voter files & party affiliation alone. DEEP ROOT AUDIENCES How will down-ballot candidates appeal to the Trump or potential Clinton voter? DRA has profiled and modeled these coalitions to power 2016 targeting up and down ballot. GOP Women Ages 35+ Your actual Targets 4

5 THE TWO MOST TARGETED AUDIENCES IN 2016 RELUCTANT REPUBLICANS Reluctant Republicans are those voters who identify more with the Republican Party or would vote for a Republican down-ballot, but are more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton, over Donald Trump, or consider a non-major party candidate at the top of the ticket. By targeting Reluctant Republicans, down-ballot Republicans can ensure these traditionally Republican voters turn out to vote regardless of any lingering questions they hold about the top of the ticket. DISAFFECTED DEMOCRATS Disaffected Democrats are those voters who identify more with the Democratic Party, or would vote Democratic down-ballot, but are more likely to vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. By targeting Disaffected Democrats, a conservative leaning audience, down-ballot Republicans have an opportunity to expand their vote share in November. 5

6 RELUCTANT REPUBLICANS DISAFFECTED DEMOCRATS 16.2MM (9% of voters) 14.0MM (8% of voters) 68% Republican Women 80% White SEGMENTS 51% 40% Pro-Business Free Traders Hillary Republicans SEGMENTS 66% Protectionists 50%/ 50% Democratic Men/ Democratic Women 33% Social Conservatives 48% Fiscal Conservatives 33% People of Color 45% Trump Democrats LIFESTYLE INDICATORS Veterans Investors Golfers Runners Non-Fiction Book Purchasers Twitter/LinkedIn Users Deep Root Analytics/ n=7,394/ April 26-May 6, 2016 LIFESTYLE INDICATORS Single Parents Parents with college grad kids at home American History buffs Casino-goers Sci-Fi Fans Fishing Truck Owners 6

7 STRATEGIC CHOICES TRUMP CLINTON Reluctant Republicans Disaffected Democrats GOP DOWN-BALLOT CANDIDATES DEM DOWN-BALLOT CANDIDATES 7

8 THE IMPORTANCE OF AUDIENCE TARGETING 1. Is Trump more likely to target & turn out Reluctant Republicans, who would typically vote Republican? 2. Or Disaffected Democrats whose profile looks closer to his current coalition? 3. Likewise, will Clinton appeal to Reluctant Republicans, many of whom look like her base? Or try to bring home Disaffected Democrats? 4. The potential for split-ticket voting is high. 5. Given these coalitions, Senatorial & Congressional candidates must decide which voters they will target & mobilize and with which message. 6. These candidates can not count on Trump s outreach to overlap with theirs, just as they can t count on Clinton s outreach to overlap with theirs. 8

9 TARGETING THESE AUDIENCES 1. Deep Root has profiled and modeled Reluctant Republicans and Disaffected Democrats in all 50 states including all local markets and matched them into our multi-sourced TV datasets (set-top-box aggregators, service providers, smart TV manufacturers and traditional media survey sets). 2. Instead of using a broad demographic as a proxy, your TV advertising can target Reluctant Republicans and Disaffected Democrats via the Deep Root Platform. 3. You can harmonize your paid media advertising by on-boarding these same audiences for digital targeting. 4. Moreover, many 2016 contested U.S. Senate and U.S. House races overlap with presidential targeted states, further amplifying the electoral importance of these audiences. 5. This means identifying and targeting these audiences is critical. 9

10 METHODOLOGY Deep Root Analytics regularly conducts large sample, nationally representative surveys of registered voters for audience and coalition modeling. Survey responses are linked to anonymized records of registered voters and consumer data. Our most recent survey included N=7,394 interviews, conducted on cell (live call), landline, (live call), and mobile web from April 26 to May 6, The national survey was weighted for representativeness. The following slides include topline survey results from our most recent survey and a composition preview of the two-most sought after voter audiences in 2016: Reluctant Republicans and Disaffected Democrats. 10

11 DeepRootAnalytics.com