A Political Junkie s Guide to the 2016 Elections: What it Means for Minnesota David Schultz, Professor Hamline University

Transcription

1 A Political Junkie s Guide to the 2016 Elections: What it Means for Minnesota Minnesota School Boards Association 7 PM, December 4, 2015 DoubleTree/Hilton, Minneapolis, Minnesota David Schultz, Professor Hamline University dschultz@hamline.edu I. Introduction A. Jessie Ventura story and why I get called by the media. B. Question: How do we make sense of the 2016 presidential election and what will the results mean to Minnesota? C. Some clues on how to think about the election from a political scientist and analyst point of view. D. Need to understand some basic facts about the American political system they give us insights into how American and Minnesotan politics has changed. II. III. How polarized are we as a nation? A. Two models of US politics 1. The bell curve: Classical model of politics and party a. Party and public convergence toward the center 2. The double bell curve a. A bimodal model of parties and public opinion: a moving away toward polarization Two nations?: Race, Class, Gender, Region, and Religion. A. Public opinion 1. Pew Research Center: Evidence of clear polarization a. w-about-polarization-in-america/ B. Voting behavior 1. C. Congressional voting 1. rization-in-congress-has-risen-sharply-where-is-it-going-next/ D. Red State/Blue State 1

2 1. Bill Bishop, The Big Sort 2. The Minnesota sort 3. The spatial sorting by politics and the problem of gerrymandering and noncompetitive races. IV. Generational Issues, Party, and Issues A. Generational effects v. age B. Pew Research Center 1. ns-research/ C. Four Generations in America 1. Silents Baby Boomers a. Early ( ) v Later ( ) Boomers 3. Gen Xers Millennials Digitals 2001-? D. Party ID and generational overlay and why it is significant V. Voting, Party ID, and Who Shows Up A. Political Science research: 1. Best prediction of whether one votes is party ID or partisan affiliation 2. Best prediction of how one votes is voter ID or partisan affiliation B. Party breakdown in the USA 1. 38% Democrat 2. 32% Republican 3. 29% independent C. CNN 2012 exit polls 1. D. Reality is really only about 10% of population is independent/swing E. Voter turnout 1. Approximately 55% show up 2. Voter stratified by race, class, income, religion, party, and education VI. It s about the rules of politics/politainment A. The convergence of media, politics, and entertainment 1. Richard Nixon/Jack Paar a Richard Nixon/Laugh-In a Ronald Reagan the actor 4. Bill Clinton/Arsenio Hall 2

3 a. B. The Rules of politics 1. Politics Is Like Selling Beer(Politics is about telling a story or narrative) a. Reagan s Morning in America (1) 2. Annie Is Right(Politics is always about tomorrow.) 3. Rod Stewart Is Right(Politics is about passion.) 4. Politics Is About Mobilizing Your Base (It is also about demobilizing the opposition.) 5. It s a Bar Fight(Politics is about winning over the swing voter.) 6. Woody Allen Was Right(Politics is about who shows up; 90% of life is showing up.) 7. Image Is Everything(Politics is about defining or being defined.) 8. The Multimedia Is the Message(Politics is about using the best new technologies to communicate a message.) 9. Be True to Yourself(Politics is about being who you are and being a clown; be real and laugh at yourself.) 10. Show Me the Money(Politics is a business.) C. The Democratic v. Republican Narratives? 1. Specific candidates VII. VIII. IX. The Money Game A. How much? a. Obama and Romney and the $1 billion campaign b. $4 billion overall B $1.5 per candidate 2. $6 billion campaign C. Collapse of the presidential campaign finance system 1. Citizens United 2. SuperPacs 3. Dark money D. Minnesota money The Primary and Caucus Process A. It all starts with Iowa on February 1, B. New Hampshire: February 9, C. Minnesota on March 1, 2016 D. Conventions 1. The party rules and delegate selection The Electoral College 3

4 A. The Race for 270 B. A 50 state race C. All or nothing in 48 states X. Presidential Swing States: Why Ten Only Matter or 10/10/270 A. Why the presidential race is over in 10 states B. The swing states 1. Colorado 2. Florida 3. Iowa 4. Nevada 5. New Hampshire 6. New Mexico 7. North Carolina 8. Ohio 9. Virginia 10. Wisconsin C. Look to Hamilton County, Ohio D. The swing voters in the swing states E. Candidate performance in the swing states F. Presidential/congressional outcome 1. Clinton 40% to win 2. No chance for party change in House 3. Democrats have chance to retake Senate G. Assumption is continued gridlock at federal level XI. The Minnesota Connection A. Minnesota s polarization and political geography B. State party breakdown 1. DFL 38% 2. GOP 32% 3. Independent 30% 4. Election day registration about 15% of voters 5. The battle for the suburban swing voter C session is the overture for Issues a. BLM b. Taxes c. Polymet d. Senate Office Building e. MnSure f. Education 4

5 D. House of Representatives or so competitive seats E. Senate 1. 8 or so competitive seats F. The narratives 1. Republicans a. Senate office building b. MNSure c. Education spending d. Taxes e. The greater MN strategy 2. Democrats a. A strategy for the cities b. Telling their story G. Congress 1. Second and Eighth districts a. Among only about a competitive house races in the USA XII. Conclusions, Questions, and Thoughts on the candidates, polls, and races A. Be wary of the polls. B. And the winner is...? 5