Select 2016 The American elections who will win, how will they govern?

Transcription

1 Select 2016 The American elections who will win, how will they govern? Robert D. Kyle, Partner, Washington Norm Coleman, Of Counsel, Washington 13 October 2016

2 Which of the following countries do Americans have the least favorable impression of? I d like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. What is your overall opinion of? Is it very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Lowest Favorable Scores A. China B. Russia C. Syria D. Iran E. North Korea F. Iraq *Data from a national Gallup survey of 1,023 adults, conducted February 6-9,

3 What percentage of Americans say there is a gun in their household? % A Gun in Household A. 17% B. 39% C. 80% *Data from an Economist/YouGov survey of 1,000 American adults, conducted January 4-6,

4 2. What percentage of Americans still believe JFK s assassination was a conspiracy? Do you think that one man was responsible for the assassination of President Kennedy, or do you think that others were involved in a conspiracy? % Others Involved A. 24% B. 61% C. 83% *Data from a national Gallup survey of 1,039 adults, conducted November 7-10,

5 What percent of Americans believe in the Theory of Evolution? Which comes closer to your view? Humans and other living things have evolved over time OR Humans and other living things have existed in their present form since the beginning of time % Evolved Over Time 1. 18% 2. 43% 3. 60% *Data from a national Pew Research survey, conducted March 21-April 8,

6 The Good: Record turnout in the Republican primaries and Millennial participation in the Democrat primary and caucus states. The Bad: A majority of voters say that neither of the nominees are not trustworthy. 60 % say Clinton and Trump are not honest or trustworthy * ABC News/Washington Post 8/2016 The Very Ugly: Donald Trump * Rhetoric of banning all Muslims from entering the US * Making Mexico pay for a wall between the US and Mexico * Comments about a federal judge being biased against him because he s Mexican (the judge was born in Indiana) Hillary Clinton * Referring to half of Donald Trump s supporters as a basket of deplorables. * scandal. Though she will not be criminally indicted, FBI Director James Comey labeled her extremely careless. 6

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8 Last Time Mood Was Positive: 144 Months Ago 01/2004: 47% RD 43% WT 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The mood of the country is still overwhelmingly negative since % 56% 62% 58% 59%59%58% 63% 56% 60%63% 50% The Mood of the Country 73%74%73% 62% 67% 69% Wrong Track 61% 58% 59%58% 61% 60% 55%53%53% 57% 59%61% 59% 61% 62% 78% 70% 39% 33% 34%29% 35% 36% 41%41% 32%32%32%32% 31%28% 28% 29% 30% 33%33%33% 35% 31%32% 32% 31% 32% 29%30% 29%28% 25% 19%17% 19%22% 22% 14% Right Direction 64% 63% 67% 67% 23% 23% Trend data from Gallup polling of 1,012 American adults. Most recent poll conducted January 6 10, Rasmussen data April

9 Why do Americans think they are still in a recession? 1. Wage Stagnation. Productivity growing strongly (64.9% from 1979 to 2013); hourly compensation grew 8% in same period. 2.76% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (CNN Money). More than ½ of all Americans can t come up with $400 in emergency cash. 3.Millennialsare drowning in red ink. Total student loan debt has grown more than 150% since Downward mobility is the new reality. Middle class death watch. 1/3 of Americans who were middle class as teenagers in the 1970s flatten out as adults. 9

10 Most believe the American Dream has become impossible for people to achieve. Do you agree or disagree: The American Dream has become impossible for most people to achieve. 59% % Agree Disagree Total Data from a CNN/ORC International national poll of 1,003 adults, conducted May 29-June 1,

11 While the nation s political middle has remained stable over the last thirty years, it s disappeared in Congress. Most Conservative Democrat Make-Up of Congress: 344 Members (79%) Most Liberal Republican Make-Up of Congress: 4 Members (1%) GOP Dem Caucus GOP Caucus Dem Caucus GOP Caucus Ideology of Americans: Ideology of Americans: 41% 33% 37% 36% 19% 24% Liberal Moderate Conservative Liberal Moderate Conservative Sources: National Journal Vote Rankings from a presentation by Mehlman Vogel Castagnetti national political ideology from an average of six CBS News/New York Times national polls, conducted Jan-Oct national political ideology from a merge of NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling of 6,000 adults nationally, conducted Jan-Sept

12 Party Polarization is now worse than it was just after the American Civil War. Political Update March

13 There is a lack of trust in Party Leadership Only 27% of Republicans say political attitudes of party leaders match with Republican voters. A leader without followers is just a guy taking a walk.

14 The nation s hyper-partisanship has never been worse. Historic Gap Between DEM and GOP Approval of the President President Avg. Dem Approval Avg. GOP Approval Approval Gap Obama 83% 14% 69 G.W. Bush 23% 84% 61 Clinton 82% 27% 55 Reagan 31% 83% 52 Nixon 34% 75% 41 Eisenhower 49% 88% 39 G.H.W. Bush 44% 82% 38 Kennedy 84% 49% 35 Ford 36% 67% 31 L.B. Johnson 70% 40% 30 Carter 57% 30% 27 14

15 In 1976, Americans Were Living in Less Polarized Locations 15

16 Compared to

17 The TRUMP Factor A Quiz. 17

18 What percentage of Americans SUPPORT a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the U.S.? A. 24% B. 50% C. 71% 18

19 What percentage of Americans SUPPORT the building of a 2,000 mile long wall between the US and Mexico? A. 24% B. 38% C. 67% 19

20 What percentage of Americans see immigrants as a burden? A. 8% B. 19% C. 35% 20

21 What percentage of Americans SUPPORT enhanced interrogation (waterboarding)? A. 47% B. 63% C. 82% 21

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23 The Fundamentals Point to a Narrow Republican Win in 2016 Time For A Change: U.S. parties secured a third consecutive term only 1 out of 6 times since 1952 Non-Robust Economy: Per capital GDP growth is only about 1-2% Presidential Approval: President Obama s approvals average about 50-52% Trump s underperformance effectively imposes a Trump Tax on Republican chances in 2016

24 The Political Fallout From the 2008 Financial Crisis The typical political reaction to financial crisis is as follows: votes for far-right parties increase strongly, government majorities shrink, the fractionalisation of parliaments rises and the overall number of parties represented in parliament jumps. These developments likely hinder crisis resolution and contribute to political gridlock. Funke, Schularick, Trebesch Voxeu.org, Does this help explain Europe as well?

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26 Where the Race Stands Now Clinton leads Trump by 3.7% (Oct. 5) (Real Clear Politics Average of Polls 4 person race) 78% chance Clinton will win by some margin (Oct. 5) (ipredict on-line prediction market) Trump Unfavorables: 70% - Women 77% - Hispanic 74% - Millennials Weaknesses in Clinton s support: 29% - White Working Class 31% - Millennials (half of Obama)

27 U.S. Presidential Elections are determined by electoral votes, not popular votes (Bush/Gore) Democrats have a solid or very likely 247 electoral votes. Republicans have ELECTORAL VOTES ARE NEEDED TO WIN. 40 of 50 states have voted for the same candidate in all four elections since This ELECTION will be decided by SEVEN states.

28 Slide credit: Larry Sabato

29 Congressional Elections: Down Ballot Impact Senate: Democrats need 4-5 Senate seats to win control. Outlook: Senate control could go to either party. House of Representatives: Democrats need 30 House seats to win control of the House Presidential victories don t translate into Congressional landslides: 1964: : : +14 (-2 in Senate) 1992: : : +28 Outlook: House likely to remain a Republican majority.

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