Fusion Millennials Poll #4: Emotional Responses to Candidates
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1 Jan. 22, 2016 Fusion Millennials Poll #4: Emotional Responses to Candidates Seven in 10 young adults respond negatively to the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency, including 54 percent who say they d feel like fleeing the country. Women and nonwhites are especially apt to say they d be inclined to pack their bags and get out of Dodge. Emotional reactions to other leading presidential candidates are more mixed in a new Fusion 2016 Issues Poll, but still generally tilt to the negative. The modal response for many: Meh. The national survey asked Americans age for their reactions to top GOP and Democratic candidates winning the White House whether they d feel like declaring a national holiday, like there s a light at the end of the tunnel, like shrugging, like going back to bed or like fleeing the country. Hypothetical wins by Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were tested. The two negative responses, hiding under the covers or heading for the hills, dominate for all but Bernie Sanders; he evokes positive and negative emotions in equal measure, 30 percent each. Thirty percent also react positively to a Clinton presidency, but 41 percent respond negatively, putting her 11 percentage points under water. (More have no opinion on how they d feel about a win by Sanders.) Views of the top GOP candidates, particularly Trump, are more negative not a surprise, since young adults tilt Democratic and liberal. Only 13 to 17 percent respond positively to any of the Republican candidates. For Carson, Rubio and Cruz, percent react negatively, putting each in the hole by at least 20 percentage points. Trump, though, is in a category of his own: Sixty-nine percent of millennials react negatively to the thought of his election as president, with 54 percent saying they d feel like pulling up stakes and an additional 15 percent saying they d want to head back to the sack Positive Negative --- Pos.- NET Holiday Light Shrug NET Bed Flee Neg. Sanders 30% pts. Clinton Carson Rubio Cruz Trump
2 Notably, two-thirds of nonwhites, including 73 percent of blacks and 64 percent of Hispanics, say they d feel like fleeing the country if Trump won, compared with a still-substantial 47 percent of whites. And 61 percent of young women said they d be inclined to clear out, vs. 46 percent of men. This poll does not predict an actual exodus, of course: Young adults were not asked what they d do, but how they d feel. Partisanship is involved. Three-quarters of young Democrats say they d feel like leaving the country if Trump won, as would 49 percent of independents. But even one in three young Republicans and nearly four in 10 conservatives say they d feel like moving away if Trump won. Very few adults 18-35, meanwhile, react positively to a hypothetical Trump win. Only 5 percent would want to declare a national holiday and 8 percent say they d see it as a light at the end of the tunnel. Even among Republicans, it s 13 and 23 percent, respectively. As noted, other candidates, including fellow Republicans, don t provoke nearly as strong reactions. Only percent say they d feel like fleeing the country if Cruz, Rubio, Carson or Sanders were elected. That rises in the case of Clinton, to 25 percent. Views on Clinton also are marked by gender and especially race and ethnicity. Young nonwhites are 24 percentage points more likely than whites to say they d respond positively if Clinton won 15 points more apt to say they d feel like declaring a national holiday (20-5 percent) and nine points more likely to feel like there s light at the end of the tunnel (24-15 percent). Thirty-six percent of women age 18 to 35 react positively, vs. 24 percent of men. Emotional responses described in the poll can be roughly characterized as overjoyed (national holiday), optimistic (light at the end of the tunnel), indifferent (a shrug), depressed (back to bed) and frightened (flee the country). Across all six candidates, results are 20 percent positive, 27 percent indifferent and 42 percent negative hardly a happy face on the political outlook. (This, again, is being pulled by particular negativity toward the GOP candidates, especially Trump.) Net emotional responses All candidates GOP candidates Dem candidates Positive 20% 14% 30% Indifferent Negative No answer GROUPS Reactions to candidates break sharply along political and ideological lines. In addition to the differences by race and gender for Clinton and Trump, the youngest adults (age 18-21) respond as negatively to Clinton as to Carson, Cruz and Rubio, but more positively to Sanders. A challenge for Sanders is that these young millennials are much less likely than older millennials to be registered to vote. 2
3 Positive-negative difference scores Sanders Clinton Carson Rubio Cruz Trump All 0 pts Democrats Republicans Independents Liberals NET Very Somewhat Moderates Conservatives Whites Nonwhites Blacks Hispanics Men Women Partisanship and ideology Democrats, naturally, are much more positive about Clinton and Sanders than about the GOP candidates but especially Clinton, +37 in her party vs. +28 for Sanders. That flips to -31 to -36 for Carson, Rubio and Cruz, and a staggering -83 among young Democrats on Trump. Young Republicans, for their part, are more muted in reaction to their party s candidates, even as they respond negatively toward the Democrats. They re more positive on balance for Carson and Cruz (both +18), about even for Rubio (+4) and negative on Trump (-8). Independents respond negatively to all the candidates except Sanders, -2, compared with -22 for Rubio, -25 for Clinton, -26 for Carson, -30 for Cruz and -58 for Trump. Ideology distinguishes reactions toward Clinton and Sanders. Sanders does substantially better than Clinton among strong liberals (+41 vs +7). A quarter of strong liberals would feel like declaring a national holiday if Sanders won, while just 10 percent say the same about Clinton. And 35 percent of strong liberals have a negative response to Clinton, vs. 19 percent for Sanders. Reaction to Sanders vs. Clinton is closer among those who are somewhat liberal, moderate or conservative. (There aren t enough strong conservatives to analyze reliably in this survey. Still, it was conducted among 1,030 millennials, a much larger sample size of this group than can be found in most news polls.) 3
4 Very liberal Somewhat lib. Moderate Conservative Clint. Sand. Clint. Sand. Clint. Sand. Clint. Sand. Holiday 10% 24 12% 12 12% 7 11% 4 Light Shrug Bed Flee Positive Negative Difference Race/ethnicity Among racial and ethnic groups, nonwhites are more likely than whites to identify themselves as Democrats and liberals, so their reactions are consistently more positive toward Democratic than Republican candidates. But differences emerge within the partisan groupings by race. These distinctions are clearest for Clinton and Sanders. Whites and nonwhites break about evenly in their emotional reactions toward Sanders while there is a huge racial gulf for Clinton. She s a net -31 among whites, but +18 among nonwhites, including +33 among blacks. Fifty-five percent of blacks react positively to Clinton, vs. just 29 percent for Sanders, underlying her strength in this core Democratic group. On balance, whites and nonwhites react about equally (and negatively) to Carson, Rubio and Cruz, while a large gap, the reverse of Clinton s, emerges for Trump. Trump is -44 in emotional responses among whites but -75 among nonwhites, including -75 among Hispanics and -84 among blacks. Seventy-three percent of blacks would feel like fleeing the country in the event of a Trump victory, as would 64 and 47 percent of Hispanics and whites, respectively Whites Nonwhites Blacks Hispanics -- Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Holiday 6% 5 2% 20 2% 22 2% 19 Light Shrug Bed Flee Pos Neg Diff Gender As noted, women are 15 percentage points more likely to say they d feel like fleeing the country if Trump won than men, And 36 percent of women have positive reactions to Clinton, vs. just 25 percent of men. Gender matters less for other candidates. 4
5 ----- Men Women ---- Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Holiday 6% 10 3% 13 Light Shrug Bed Flee Positive Negative Diff Age Positive reactions increase with age for Clinton, from a low of 24 percent among year-olds to 38 percent among those 31 to 35. Nearly the opposite is the case for Sanders, 35 and 24 percent, respectively. Instead, negative reactions to Sanders increase across age groups; for example, 17 percent of 31- to 35-year-olds say they d feel like fleeing the country if he were elected, compared with 6 percent of 18-21s. For Clinton, 46 percent of the youngest group express negative emotional responses, including 23 percent saying they d feel like moving away and 24 percent who d want to head for bed. Age is less of a factor for the other candidates, with the exception of Trump. He s a net -59 among the youngest group, vs. -45 among 31-35s. METHODOLOGY This Fusion 2016 Issues Poll was conducted by landline and cell phone interviews Jan. 6-19, 2016, among a random national sample of 1,030 adults age 18 to 35. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the survey s design effect. The survey was produced for Fusion by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa. See methodological details here. Analysis by Chad Kiewiet de Jonge. Full results follow. 1. Which of the following best describes how you would feel if [ITEM] wins the presidency? Would you feel (like declaring a national holiday, like there's a light at the end of the tunnel, like shrugging, like going back to bed or like fleeing the country)? 1/19/16 - Summary Table Holiday Light Shrug Bed Flee No opin. a. Hillary Clinton b. Bernie Sanders c. Donald Trump d. Ted Cruz e. Marco Rubio
6 f. Ben Carson *** END *** 6
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