POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENT April 6-9, 2006

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1 CBS NEWS POLL For release: April 10, :30 P.M. POLITICS AND THE PRESIDENT April 6-9, 2006 Although President Bush s approval ratings have stopped the downward slide that occurred earlier this year (in this poll 37% approve of the way he is handling his job), his continued unpopularity and the unpopularity of the war in Iraq and other Bush policies could become a campaign issue in the fall. Nearly half of all voters say the President will be a factor in their Congressional vote: more than one-third will think of it as a vote against President Bush, while just 14% say they ll think of it as a vote for him. 45% say their opinion of the President will make no difference in their calculus. WILL YOU THINK OF YOUR 2006 VOTE AS (Among registered voters) Now 10/2002 7/2002 A vote for Bush 14% 31% 26% A vote against Bush Bush not a factor Heading into the 2002 midterms, when the GOP made historic gains, almost twice as many people said they were preparing to vote that year in support of Mr. Bush. Far fewer then thought of their upcoming vote as a statement against him. But at the time, many more Americans approved of President Bush s job performance than do now. Americans seem more likely to say THIS president matters in their midterm election vote than said so about his immediate predecessors. And voters are also much more willing to say their vote is AGAINST this president. Before his party s 1994 Congressional losses, six in ten voters said Bill Clinton would NOT be a factor in their vote. Similar numbers said that before the 1998 election, even with impeachment a major focus. MIDTERM VOTES: IMPACT OF THE PRESIDENT (Among registered voters) Now 10/02 10/98 9/94 10/90 Bush Bush Clinton Clinton GHW Bush Vote for the President 14% 31% 20% 17% 19% Vote against the President President not a factor

2 A separate half of the sample was asked if their vote would be for or against President Bush s policies. Results were much the same as for the President himself: 18% of voters said they would vote to back the policies, 35% vote against them. 40% said it wouldn t be a factor. It appears most local candidates would not even benefit from a visit or an endorsement from the President. Only 10% of voters would be more likely to back a candidate today with a presidential endorsement. Three times as many, 31%, would be less likely to vote for that candidate. IF BUSH BACKED A CANDIDATE, WOULD YOU BE (Among registered voters) More likely to vote for candidate 10% Less likely to vote for candidate 31 Wouldn t make a difference 57 The 2006 Congressional elections, of course, are still seven months away. Leaving aside the actual candidates and issues in specific districts, registered voters today would back a generic Democrat over a generic Republican for the House of Representatives by a ten-point margin. Independents usually a critical swing vote would do so by a two-to-one margin HOUSE VOTE (Among registered voters) All Rep Dem Ind Democrat 44% 4% 87% 42% Republican It depends/don t know Congress ratings remain low, and the nation sees it as ineffective. Congress overall approval rating is 27% in this poll, down from 32% in March, matching the lowest figure this 109 th Congress has received since it was sworn in. CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL Now 3/2006 1/2006 5/2005 1/2005 1/1994 Approve 27% 32% 27% 29% 44% 30% Disapprove Congressional approval has historically been low, rarely rising above 50% in the thirty years the CBS News Poll has been asking about it. This Congress saw a 44% approval rating as it convened, but hasn t matched that level since. The Congressional handling of the Terri Schiavo case began its slide in the spring of 2005, and the controversy surrounding lobbyist Jack Abramoff continued it. Two-thirds of Americans also feel this Congress is accomplishing less than a Congress typically does in a two-year period. When Americans in

3 2000 and 1998 were asked this question, views that Congress had been ineffective were not nearly so widespread. And more today have a view on this question than did in those years. IS THIS CONGRESS ACCOMPLISHING MORE OR LESS THAN USUAL? Now 9/2000 7/1998 More 15% 23% 24% Less About same Don t know Yet many Americans aren t convinced the legislature would function any more to their liking if it changed hands: 48% say Congress would do the same kind of job if Democrats took control. Fewer, 32%, think things would be better, though this is more than twice the 13% who say things would get worse. Most Democrats expect improvement, though over one-third would not. Independents don t expect better performance. IF CONGRESS WERE CONTROLLED BY DEMOCRATS IT WOULD PERFORM... All Rep Dem Ind Better 32% 6% 61% 30% Worse About the same And while more Americans (32%) think the Republicans in Congress are more corrupt than say the Democrats are (13%), a majority of Americans 56% - either don t have an opinion or volunteer that both parties are equally corrupt. WHO IS MORE CORRUPT? Now 1/2006 Republicans in Congress 32% 36% Democrats in Congress Same Don t know However, as is usually the case, while Americans disapprove of the legislature s performance, they give their own representative good marks. VIEWS OF THE PARTIES JOB PERFORMANCE OF YOUR OWN REPRESENTATIVE Approve 60% Disapprove 23 Slightly more Americans have a favorable opinion of the Democratic party than have an unfavorable opinion. The opposite is true of the Republicans, and by a wider margin. Only 40% of Americans have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while over half view that party unfavorably. Still, the public s views of both parties have

4 improved since last month; then, Americans were more divided in their opinion of the Democrats, and the Republican Party was viewed favorably by 36%. VIEWS OF THE PARTIES Now 3/2006 1/2006 Democrats Favorable 48% 47% 53% Unfavorable Republicans Favorable 40% 36% 44% Unfavorable Independents seem to prefer the Democrats over the Republicans. 41% of Independents have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while only 25% say the same thing about the Republican Party. By about 10 points, Americans choose the Democrats over the Republicans as the party better able to deal with the war in Iraq and to ensure a strong economy - the top two problems most often cited as the most important facing the country today - and by about the same margin they also choose the Democrats as the party best able to deal with immigration issues, now the third-ranked problem. However, Americans continue to give the Republicans better marks for handling a national security crisis, dealing with terrorism, and keeping U.S. military defenses strong. WHICH PARTY IS BETTER AT? Democrats Republicans Ensuring a strong economy 46% 36% Dealing with war in Iraq 44% 33% Dealing with immigration issues 43% 31% Handling a national security crisis 35% 42% Dealing with terrorism 31% 45% Keeping the U.S. military strong 24% 57% THE PRESIDENT AND THE ISSUES The war in Iraq remains the issue of greatest concern to Americans 27% name it the country s most important problem, up from 20% a few weeks ago. The economy and jobs ranks second at 13%, unchanged from last month. But the past week s Senate debate on immigration has brought that issue more to the front of the public s mind, too. Today 7% volunteer immigration as the most important problem, a slight increase from the 4% who said so a few weeks ago and 1% who cited it in February. Immigration now ranks a notch above terrorism, which stands at 6%.

5 U.S.' MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Now 3/2006 2/2006 War in Iraq 27% 20% 24% Economy/Jobs Immigration Terrorism The President s overall job approval ratings have risen a bit in the past few weeks to 37%, up from 34% in March. A majority still disapproves, however; 56% do, which is unchanged from March. PRES. BUSH S JOB APPROVAL Now 3/2006 2/2006 1/2006 4/2005 Approve 37% 34% 34% 42% 44% Disapprove Bush s ratings on handling the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism and the economy are also up very slightly. APPROVE OF BUSH S HANDLING Now 3/2006 2/2006 4/2005 4/2004 Iraq 33% 31% 30% 39% 41% Terrorism 47% % Economy 36% % Few Americans approve of how President Bush is handling the issue of immigration just 26% do and 21% say they haven t heard enough about it to say. 53% disapprove. BUSH S HANDLING OF IMMIGRATION All Reps Dems Inds Approve 26% 42% 18% 20% Disapprove Don t know The immigration issue has revealed sharp divisions within the Republican party, with Mr. Bush s stance openly challenged by some GOP legislators. Among rank-and-file Republicans, this split is evident, too only 42% of Republicans in this poll approve how the President is handling immigration, his lowest rating from Republicans on all the approval measures tested. About as many Republicans -- 41% -- disapprove. APPROVE OF BUSH S HANDLING. All Reps Dems Inds Job overall 37% 77% 12% 24% Economy 36% 71% 12% 27% Iraq 33% 67% 12% 23% Terrorism 47% 79% 30% 37% Immigration 26% 42% 18% 20%

6 Despite the difference of opinion over immigration, the President continues to draw strong overall support from within his own party, at 77%, up slightly from 74% last month. But approval from Democrats while still scant has risen to 12% now, compared to 6% a few weeks ago. Ratings of the national economy are largely unchanged from a few weeks ago, with just over half of Americans 52% - calling it good; 55% said the same in March. THE WAR IN IRAQ Most Americans give a bleak assessment of the situation in Iraq, and an even larger percentage than last month feels that Iraq is now in a state of civil war 78%, compared to 71% in March. An additional 9% think civil war is likely to occur in the near future. IS IRAQ IN CIVIL WAR? Now 3/2006 Yes 78% 71% No, but will happen in the future 9 13 No, won t happen 9 10 A majority of the public thinks things are going badly in Iraq for the U.S. a view that has been held for much of the past year. 58% think things are going badly, while 41% think things there are going well. HOW ARE THINGS GOING IN IRAQ FOR U.S.? Now 3/ /2005 6/2005 2/2005 Well 41% 40% 43% 40% 53% Badly Views of how the war is going are highly partisan: 70% of Republicans think it is going well, while 78% of Democrats think it is going badly. In contrast to their own assessment of the war, majorities of Americans believe the President is overly optimistic when he describes how the war in Iraq is going, and say he has not clearly explained U.S. goals there. Just under two thirds of Americans think the President is not realistic about the situation there. 63% of Americans say he is describing things in Iraq as better than they really are; there has been little overall change on this question in the last year. Only 26% think he describes the situation in Iraq accurately. PRESIDENT BUSH DESCRIBES THINGS IN IRAQ Now 3/2006 1/2006 1/2005 Better than they are 63% 66% 58% 55% Worse than they are Accurately

7 Despite the President s recent speeches in support of his Iraq strategy, few Americans say his Administration has explained U.S. goals in Iraq. Just 34% now say it has clearly explained U.S. goals in Iraq, while 63% think it has not. LOOKING AHEAD IN IRAQ HAS BUSH ADMIN. EXPLAINED U.S. GOALS IN IRAQ? Now 3/ /2005 Yes 34% 31% 35% No Prospects for future democracy in Iraq remain mixed, and expectations are that if it happens, it will not be for a long time. Nearly half think that Iraq will never become a stable democracy down slightly from March, but not much different from previous months. 51% think democracy will take root in Iraq, although 45% think that will take longer than a few years. WILL IRAQ BECOME A STABLE DEMOCRACY? Yes, in next year or two 6% Yes, in more than a year or two 45 No 47 Nevertheless, a majority of the public thinks the U.S. will likely be successful there (although few see that outcome as very likely). 58% think the U.S. is likely to succeed in Iraq, including just 17% who think that is very likely, and 40% think success is not likely. Current views are more optimistic than last month, but are more negative than in January. LIKELIHOOD U.S. WILL SUCCEED IN IRAQ Now 3/2006 1/2006 Very likely 17% 15% 21% Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely More than eight in ten Republicans think the U.S. is likely to succeed in Iraq, but fewer than half of Democrats do. Those who think the U.S. will succeed in Iraq are more likely to view the war there more favorably: most of them think it was the right thing to do, say it is going well, and want the U.S. to stay the course. However, even a majority of this group thinks Iraq has devolved into civil war now. As for what should happen now, more than half of Americans would like to see the number of U.S. troops decreased or removed altogether much as they have since last summer. 30% would like troop numbers to be decreased, while another 27% want them to be removed altogether. 25% want U.S. troop levels to remain the same as they are now.

8 U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ SHOULD BE Increased 12% Kept the same 25 Decreased 30 Removed 27 More generally, the public is divided as to whether the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq until it becomes a stable democracy, even if that takes a long time. 47% are willing to do so. However, just as many want U.S. troops to leave as soon as possible. Those percentages have changed very little since last fall. Those who think democracy in Iraq is unlikely are less willing to keep U.S. troops in Iraq for as long as it takes, and to want U.S. troop levels decreased. 43% of Americans think the U.S. did the right thing taking military action in Iraq, while 53% think the U.S. should have stayed out of that country. Those percentages have varied little in the past year. The partisan divide over the war in Iraq shows no signs of lessening; nearly eight in 10 Republicans think it was the right thing to do, while a similar percentage of Democrats think the U.S. should have stayed out. Independents are more likely to agree with the Democrats. This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 899 adults, interviewed by telephone April 6-9, The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points.

9 CBS NEWS POLL Politics and the President April 6-9, 2006 q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Mar06a % % % % % Approve Disapprove DK/NA q2 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? War in Iraq Economy / jobs Immigration Terrorism (general) Health Care The President/G.W. Bush Gas/Heating Oil Crisis Poverty / Homelessness Education Moral Values/Family Values Environment Defense / Military Budget Deficit /Nat l Debt Other DK/NA q3 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism? Approve Disapprove DK/NA

10 q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the issue of immigration? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Oct05a % % % % % Approve Disapprove DK/NA q7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Mar06a Approve Disapprove DK/NA q8 How about the representative in Congress from your district? Do you approve or disapprove of the way your representative is handling his or her job? Jan06b Approve Disapprove DK/NA q9 If the 2006 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** Jan06a Republican Democratic Other (Vol.) Won't vote (Vol.) Depends (Vol.) DK/NA q10 Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote for George W. Bush, a vote against George W. Bush, or don't you think of your vote this fall as being about George W. Bush's presidency? trend?? ** HALF SAMPLE A ** Oct02f Vote for Bush Vote against Bush Bush not a factor Won't vote (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q11 Do you think of your vote for Congress this fall as a vote for George W. Bush's policies, a vote against George W. Bush's policies, or don't you think of your vote this fall as being about George W. Bush's policies? ** HALF SAMPLE B ** Vote for Bush's policies Vote against Bush's policies Bush policies not a factor Won't vote (Vol.) Don't know/no answer

11 q12 If George W. Bush supported a candidate for political office in your area, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it affect how you voted one way or another? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Dec05a % % % % % More likely Less likely Wouldn't affect vote DK/NA q13-q16 BLANK q17 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q18 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** Mar06a Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA q20& q21 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE q22-q32 RELEASED SEPARATELY q33& 34 BLANK q35 In general, is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable or not favorable? Favorable Not favorable Don't know/no answer q36 In general, is your opinion of the Republican party favorable or not favorable? Favorable Not favorable Don't know/no answer q37 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq? Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q38 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party is more likely to ensure a strong economy? Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer

12 q39 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party is more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to dealing with terrorism? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Mar06a % % % % % Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q40 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party is more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to dealing with immigration issues? Dec05a Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q41 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party is more likely to make sure U.S. military defenses are strong? May03a Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q42 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican party or the Democratic party would do a better job handling a national security crisis? Republican party Democratic party Both (Vol.) Neither (Vol.) Don't know/no answer q43 Do you think the Republicans in Congress are more corrupt, or are the Democrats in Congress more corrupt? Jan06a Republicans Democrats Same (Vol.) DK/NA q44 During 2005 and 2006, do you think Congress is accomplishing more or less than it usually does during a typical two-year period? More Less About the same (vol.) Don't/No answer

13 q45 If the Democrats were in control of Congress now, do you think Congress would do a better job than it has with the Republicans in control, a worse job than it has with the Republicans in control, or about the same job as it has with the Republicans in control? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Better Worse Same Don't know/no answer q46 BLANK q47 Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the US have stayed out? Mar06a Right thing Stayed out Don't know/no answer q48 How would you say things are going for the US in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Very well Somewhat well Somewhat badly Very badly Don't know/no answer q49 Should the United States troops stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy, even if it takes a long time, or should U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable? Jan06b Stay as long as it takes Leave as soon as possible Don't know/no answer q50 Regardless of whether you think taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do--would you say that the U.S. is very likely to succeed in Iraq, somewhat likely to succeed, not very likely to succeed, or not at all likely to succeed in Iraq? Mar06a Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Don't know/no answer

14 q51 From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Iraq, what should the United States do now--should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, keep the same number of U.S. troops in Iraq as there are now, decrease the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, or remove all its troops from Iraq? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Mar06a % % % % % Increase Keep the same number Decrease Remove all troops Don't know/no answer q52 Which of these do you think is most likely?...1. Iraq will become a stable democracy in the next year or two. 2. Iraq will become a stable democracy, but it will take longer than a year or two. 3. Iraq will probably never become a stable democracy. Will in the next year or two Will, but will take longer Will never become a democracy Don't know/no answer q53 Do you think the Bush Administration has clearly explained what the U.S.'s goals are in Iraq, or haven't they done that yet? Clearly explained Haven't done that yet Don't know/no answer q54 When George W. Bush talks about how things are going for the United States in Iraq today, do you think he is making things in Iraq sound better than they really are, making things sound worse than they really are, or is he describing the situation in Iraq accurately? Sound better Sound worse Describing accurately DK/NA q55 BLANK 14

15 q56 Would you say there is a civil war going on in Iraq among different groups of Iraqis right now, or not? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind Mar06a % % % % % Yes No Don't know/no answer q57 Do you think a civil war in Iraq is likely or not likely to occur in the near future? among all Likely Not likely Civil war now in q Don't know/no answer UNWEIGHTED Total Respondents 899 WEIGHTED Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Registered Voters Half Sample A (q10) Half Sample B (q11)

THE BUSH PRESIDENCY AND THE STATE OF THE UNION January 20-25, 2006

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: January 26, 2005 6:30 P.M. THE BUSH PRESIDENCY AND THE STATE OF THE UNION January 20-25, 2006 For the first time in his presidency, George W. Bush will give a