Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015

Transcription

1 Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1

2 We may finally be beginning to leave The Great Recession behind us.

3 In January 2015, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit its highest point since January The underlying fundamentals are very strong. More consumers spontaneously cited increases in their household incomes in early January than any time in the past decade. More households reported unprompted references to favorable employment prospects as well as lower prices than at any other time in more than the halfcentury history of the surveys. SLIDE 3

4 Title. Satisfaction with the economy hit its highest mark in years. 45% Satisfied January % Satisfied January 2009 SLIDE 4

5 Higher economic confidence means the President Obama s job approval is trending upward toward 50%. Obama Job Approval Rasmussen 51% Gallup 50% ABC News/Wash Post 47% NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 46% Real Clear Politics Average (as of February 4, 2015) 46% SLIDE 5

6 President Obama s approval rating will be an important key to the 2016 presidential result. IF Presidential Approval Rating THEN Democrats Chance of Winning 41% 23% 46% 37% 50% 50% 6 SLIDE 6

7 Higher economic confidence and presidential approval does not cure the dysfunction in Washington. It does not fix the deep gap in ideology that underlies our partisan politics. SLIDE 7

8 Most Liberal Republican IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE Most Conservative Democrat 1982 DEM Caucus 344 Members GOP Caucus 1994 DEM Caucus 252 Members GOP Caucus 2002 DEM Caucus 137 Members GOP Caucus 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus DEM Caucus RSC (Conservatives) 4 GOP Caucus National Journal analysis of voting records, SLIDE 8 4

9 Number of Congressional Seats 200 The swing Congressional seats are vanishing Year 9 SLIDE 9

10 A significant majority of registered voters would vote to replace every single Member of Congress. % Vote to Replace Every Member of Congress Wave Election 45% (Oct. 2010) 2013 Government Shutdown (October 2013) 60% 2014 Election 55% (October 2014) 10 SLIDE 10

11 Healthcare & Prescription/Generic Drugs Bill McInturff SLIDE 11

12 Since the advent of Medicare Part D, the concern about the cost of prescription drugs has plummeted. How concerned are you that you won t be able to afford the cost of? % Concerned a great deal/quite a bit/a moderate amount Care for major surgery or life-threatening illness 45% Emergency room visits or urgent care 32% Keeping your health insurance 30% Prescription drugs 24% Regular doctor visits 21% SLIDE 12

13 It is impressive how much people say they understand about generic drugs Understanding of Generic Drugs % % %5-7 11% %1-4 10% No Understanding Complete Understanding SLIDE 13

14 And the margin by which they say they would choose a generic over a prescription drug. How often do you choose a generic over a brand name drug? Always/Usually 77% Sometimes/Seldom 13% Never 11% SLIDE 14

15 The Sovaldi problem and how this impacts the public policy debate about prescription drugs. SLIDE 15

16 Why your advocacy matters. Percent of Current Members Who Were In Office for HOUSE Last Big Tax Reform SENATE HOUSE Last TPA Vote SENATE 3% 7% 26% 26% Last Telecom Act Lehman Bros. Collapse 15% 15% 44% 46% /11 Attacks ACA Vote 26% 26% 52% 54% SLIDE 16

17 Here s another perspective on the U.S. Congress and the state of our politics. Bill McInturff SLIDE 17

18 Punxsutawney Phil has an enviable favorable rating in Pennsylvania. Favorable 59% *Public Policy Polling Jan SLIDE 18

19 Pennsylvania s choice for who they d like to see in the U.S. Congress. Would do better than most members of Congress: Yes No 50% 29% *Public Policy Polling Jan SLIDE 19

20 Bill McInturff Office: (703) SLIDE 20

21 Appendix Bill McInturff SLIDE 21

22 The Affordable Care Act Bill McInturff SLIDE 22

23 There continues to be stronger opposition to the health care law than support. Good Idea Bad Idea All Voters 36% 48% 8% 83% 33% 49% 61% 18% SLIDE 23

24 Intensity matters. Republicans have always been more intensely opposed than Democrats have been enthusiastic. Strongly Good Idea 48% Strongly Bad Idea 76% SLIDE 24

25 How Politics Might Drive Policy This Cycle Republicans vote to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, but of course it stays in effect through at least There will be a litany of votes by Republicans to fix the ACA. The rest of the Affordable Care Act, including the Employer Mandate, gets implemented and there will be a fuller assessment of whether the law is working or not. Additional states ask for Medicaid waivers, but movement towards increased coverage expansion continues. SLIDE 25

26 The Endless Campaign Bill McInturff SLIDE 26

27 SLIDE 27

28 Democrats start with the big blue wall. electoral votes from 18 states + District of Columbia won by Democratic presidential candidate the last 6 elections in a row only need to win of the EVs in toss-up states. Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV SLIDE 28

29 Here s a snapshot of some of the front runners. Jeb Bush s father and his brother both served as president Hillary Clinton s husband served as president More Likely 9% Less Likely 34% More Likely 24% Less Likely 16% 29 SLIDE 29

30 Senator Clinton s Wild Ride 70% Jan Becomes Secretary of State (HIGHEST FAVORABLE RATING) 60% 50% 40% 57% Jan Bill Clinton inaugurated as 42 nd President 39% 44% Feb Bill Clinton impeachment trial ends in acquittal 45% 54% Jan Becomes U.S. Senator 49% 46% 59% 58% 45% 30% 20% 39% Sep Hillarycare dies in Congress 35% 32% 29% 36% 39% 2008 Presidential Campaign 22% 28% 37% 10% 16% Jan Subpoenaed in Whitewater investigation Jan Lewinsky scandal breaks Sep Attack in Benghazi, Libya 0% First Lady U.S. Senator Sec. of State Photo Credit: Reuters Positive Trend data from monthly NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling of American adults. Negative SLIDE 30

31 Republicans U.S. Senate control is very much up-for-grabs in 16. Less Safe Safer Senate Battleground Favors Dems Romney 12 Margin Obama 12 Margin +14 Murkowski (AK) Wyden (OR) +12 Total Seats Up in McCain (AZ) +9 Blunt (MO) +8 Isakson (GA) Reid (NV) +7 Bennet (CO) +5 Total Seats Up in Burr (NC) (CA) Open -1 Rubio (FL) -3 Portman (OH) -5 Toomey (PA) -6 Grassley (IA) -6 Ayotte (NH) -7 Johnson (WI) -17 Kirk (IL) Source: SLIDE 31 16

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