Obama, the Presidency, and Diversity: The Historic, the Ordinary

Transcription

1 Obama, the Presidency, and Diversity: The Historic, the Ordinary John Coleman Department of Political Science UW-Madison Catholic Charities, Madison September 21, 2009

2 Fundamentals of the 2008 Election The economy / consumer confidence Right direction / wrong track Unpopular Republican president Dissatisfaction with the situation in Iraq A shift away from Iraq and toward domestic issues Lots of mobilization, high voter turnout during the nomination Party identification and registration trending Democratic Hard for a party to win three consecutive elections: Repubs are the only example since FDR

3

4

5 Mixed Signals Facing Every President Head of state vs. head of government Leader vs. responsive follower Flexible vs. decisive Open administration vs. in control Average Joe vs. high private expectations Which issues, which order, which positions?

6

7

8 Obama Approval by Group Jan Feb 23- Mar 1 Mar 30- Apr 5 May 4-10 June 8-14 July Aug Aug Sep 6 White Black Hispanic

9

10

11

12 Figure 1-2 Approval of George W. Bush's Job Performance, , by Party Identification Percent Approving January-01 March-01 May-01 July-01 September-01 November-01 January-02 March-02 May-02 July-02 September-02 November-02 January-03 March-03 May-03 July-03 September-03 November-03 January-04 March-04 May-04 July-04 September-04 November-04 January-05 March-05 May-05 July-05 September-05 November-05 January-06 March-06 All Respondents Republicans Democrats Independents Sources : 288 CBS News/New York Times and Gallup polls.

13 Figure 6-4 Partisan Differences in Support for the War in Iraq November-01 January-02 March-02 May-02 July-02 September-02 November-02 January-03 March-03 May-03 July-03 September-03 November-03 January-04 March-04 May-04 July-04 September-04 November-04 December-04 March-05 May-05 July-05 Republican Support Minus Democratic Support August-05 October-05 December-05 March-06 War begins Removing Hussein worth loss of lives Approve of military action in Iraq U.S. did the right thing in going to war Support/favor or oppose going to/having gone to war War was not a mistake Result of war worth loss of lives All in all the Iraq war was worth it Support or oppose current U.S. Military presense in Iraq Right decision despite CIA report on WMD

14 Figure 6-6 Partisan Differences in Support for Vietnam War 100 Difference in Percentage of Republicans and Democrats Supporting War August-64 August-65 August-66 August-67 August-68 August-69 August-70 August-71 August-72 U.S. did not make a mistake in sending troops to fight in Vietnam U.S. did the right thing in getting into the fighting in Vietnam U.S should have become involved in Southeast Asia Sources: John E. Mueller, War, Presidents, and Public Opinion (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1973). P. 271, and the NES Surveys.

15 Figure 6-7 Partisan Differences in Support for the Persian Gulf War September-90 October-90 November-90 December-90 January-91 February-91 March-91 April-91 May-91 June-91 July-91 August-91 September-91 October-91 November-91 December-91 January-92 February-92 Difference in Percentage of Republicans and Democrats Supporting War War begins War worth loss of lives and other costs War against Iraq not a mistake Approve decision to go to war Right thing to send troops to defend Saudis U.S. did the right thing in starting ground war against Iraq Favor military action if necessary to liberate Kuwait War worth it all in all Sources : CBS News/New York Times polls; Gallup Polls reported in Ole R. Holsti, Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy, Revised Edition (Ann Arbor: Universityof Michigan Press, 2004), p. 173, and ABC News/Washington Post polls.

16

17 European Attitudes toward US, September Desirable for US to exert strong leadership in world Relations have improved between US and Europe in past year Approval of president s international policies Feeling thermometer-us 48 55

18

19

20

21 Policy Matters Most European allies still refuse to send significantly more troops to Afghanistan. The Saudis basically ignored Mr. Obama s request for concessions to Israel, while Israel rebuffed his demand to stop settlement expansion. North Korea defied him by testing a nuclear weapon. Japan elected a party less friendly to the United States. Cuba has done little to liberalize in response to modest relaxation of sanctions. India and China are resisting a climate change deal. And Russia rejected new sanctions against Iran s nuclear program even as Mr. Obama heads into talks with Tehran. (NYT )

22 Perceptions of Whether Race Relations are Generally Good or Generally Bad Whites: Generally good Whites: Generally bad Blacks: Generally good Blacks: Generally bad July April CHANGE New York Times, April 27, 2009

23

24

25

26 The Road Ahead Evaluations will continue to diverge sharply by party Evaluations on changes in race relations likely to persist, but decline World opinion favorable, but details matter Eases way for future candidates In most respects, evaluated as most any other president would be historic in its own way