2008 Democratic Nomination

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1 28 Democratic Nomination God s gift to government teachers The Big Picture - Step 1 Each state holds a primary or caucus between January & June States who hold their contests early get more media and candidate attention the rush for states to be earlier in the campaign calendar is called frontloading. Campaign 28 Timeline Dec Jan 28 Primary & Caucus Season Election Day Inauguration Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 29 National Conventions Electors Vote Jan Feb 28 Iowa New Hampshire Nevada Florida Michigan South Carolina Super Tuesday Mar No delegates For MI & SC! Can you prove that frontloading occurred in 28? 1

2 The Big Picture - Step 2 Presidential candidates enter these contests and try to win delegates Political parties award delegates to states based largely on their population 88 delegates from MN attended the Democratic Convention in Denver California got 448 delegates Timeline The Big Picture - Step 3 4,233 delegates will attend the Denver convention. Half of 4,233 delegates = 2,116.5 delegates. The nominee needs 2,117 delegate votes to win the nomination. The Republican magic number was from the states attend the National Conventions Democrats: August Republicans: September 1-4 Party in power always bats last vote during roll call and officially select the party s nominee You need to win a majority of the delegates to officially become the nominee this is called the magic number. Timeline St. Paul 28 Timeline The locations of the 28 conventions were strategically chosen. The Rs chose St. Paul to flip Minnesota from a blue to a red state The Ds chose Denver to flip Colorado from a red to a blue state 2

3 Name that pol A year before the general election likely D and R voters said they preferred to be the nominee Democrats - 49% - 26% Eward - 12% Republicans Giuliani - 33% McCain - 19% Thompson - 16% Romney - 11% Huckabee - 9% A Sports Analogy Each bracket sends only one candidate to the national championship (AKA the General Election on November 2, 24) Edwards vs. McCain Huckabee McCain Romney 3

4 What s a caucus Members of a party show up in schools, religious buildings, community centers, and people s homes all across a state Democrats and the GOP hold separate caucuses in separate locations (typically on the same night) Minnesota held its caucuses (D & R) on GigaTuesday (February 5) Think of caucuses as old fashioned political meetings How do you caucus NJH was a caucus location for the Democrats in 28 Different neighborhoods (precincts) met in different classrooms, gym, cafeteria, etc. Organized for the election Elected precinct leaders Suggested planks for the DFL platform Held a presidential preference vote Select delegates to attend the Senate District convention National Convention in Denver State Convention in Rochester Each level selects delegates to Senate- attend the District next highest level. Caucus It AHS increasingly competitive to advance. Precinct NJH Who do you know, what work have you done? Minnesota s Caucus Results 4

5 So what s a primary? Caucuses vs. Primaries Both Minnesota & Wisconsin have approximately the same population however About 21, Democrats voted in Minnesota s caucuses About a 1.1 million Democrats voted in the Wisconsin Primary About 62, Republicans voted in Minnesota s caucuses About 4, Republicans voted in the Wisconsin Primary Types of Primaries - Open There is also a variation called Modified Open where only Independents are allowed to choose which contest to vote in. 5

6 Types of Primaries - Closed You have to registered with a party to vote in their primary You have to re-register to change party affiliation Closed Primaries promotes party loyalty What happens if you aren t affiliated? Typically, registration is closed several weeks before the election Iowa Caucus Jan. 3, pledged delegates 12 super delegates Biden Dodd Edwards Gravel Kucinich Richardson Uncommitted Percent of the Vote 29% 3% 38% Pledged New Hampshire Primary Jan. 8, pledged delegates 8 super delegates Biden Dodd Edwards Gravel Kucinich Richardson Percent of the Vote 39% 17% % 1% 36% 5% Pledged Total

7 IA & NH Demographics IA N H 3 th in population 1 th most rural 97% white 42 nd in population 16 th most rural 98% white What are the political implications? Nevada Caucus Jan. 19, pledged delegates 9 super delegates 2% of Nevada s population is Latino/Hispanic Edwards Gravel Kucinich Richardson Percent of the Vote 5% 4% % % 45% Pledged Total How can win and get fewer delegates than? South Carolina Primary Jan. 26, 28 Percent of the Vote Pledged Total 54 Edwards Gravel 27% 18% % Kucinich 45 pledged delegates 9 super delegates 55% % of population is African-American 7

8 313 dem delegates + 55 supers = The RNC allowed the Republican candidates to campaign but halved their delegates as a punishment. 55% Uncommitted* 4% 5% 33% Florida and Michigan defied party rules and set their contests before Feb 3rd. The DNC penalized both states by removing their delegates. Candidates promised not to campaign in the states turning them into beauty contests claimed victory in both contests and fought for the delegates to be seated. At the end of the primary season, the DNC allowed each delegate to count for 1/2 a vote. * not on ballot Super-Duper/Tsunami/Giga Tuesday - Jan. 26, 28 1,681 Wins 1 13 Pledged Total 1,681 pledged delegates 39 super delegates 22 states + American Samoa Typically, Super Tuesday allows one of the candidates to gain separation and become the clear front runner and the presumptive nominee. Super Tuesday is also a test of a candidate s organization and fund raising ability. Too close to call performed very well in caucus states and won many small states. dominated in large states the democrats needed to win in November. And then there were the super delegates. 8

9 Pledged vs. Superdelegates Democrats have Supers (Republicans have unpledged delegates ) Peer review process Ds have 823 Super Elected Officials Party Leaders DNC Members Many Super supported early in the process then defected to s campaign in May & June. Some of MN s Supers (16) Walter Mondale Brian Melendez Mee Moua Betty McCollum Jim Oberstar R.T. Ryback Tim Walz If only we used Republican math Democratic rules award delegates proportionately. When won a contest 52%-48% and 1 delegates were at stake, she would win 52 and would pick up 48. A net gain of +4 doesn t help you catch up. Republicans include some proportional and some winnertake-all states. did very well in the big states and won the popular vote in: Pennsylvania 158 del. Texas 193 del. Ohio 141 del. California 37 del. New York 232 del. If the Democrats used the Republican rules, becomes the first woman to be nominated for president. Pledged over Time Clinch the Nomination Threshold - 2,118 delegates Neither nor could clinch without the help of the Super 9

10 So won the delegate count but lost the popular vote Huh?? Estimates in IA, NV, ME, and WA are necessary because they do not release the total number of votes from their caucuses. In Michigan (MI), s name didn t appear on the ballot. So, who do you think won the popular vote? Which standard is the most fair to use? Should we count the pregnant chads? 1

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