Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations

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1 Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations Albert Qian, Alex Hider, Amanda Khan, Caroline Reisch, Madeline Goossen, and Araksya Nordikyan

2 Research Question What are alternative ways to allocate votes in the Unites States, and which of these systems is best for California?

3 The Electoral College: An Introduction Albert Qian

Background & Summary Enacted during the Constitutional Convention of 787 to reconcile differing state and federal interests, giving leverage to less populous states while preserving

4 Background & Summary Enacted during the Constitutional Convention of 787 to reconcile differing state and federal interests, giving leverage to less populous states while preserving the popular vote in the election The electors are chosen by the states in such Manner as the Legislature may thereof direct (U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section ) Source: (History.com)

5 Background & Summary cont. The constitution gives each state a number of electors equal to its Senate membership ( per state) and House of Representatives delegation (ranging from to ) The rd amendment gives electors to the District of Columbia as well Source: (History.com)

6 How it Works

California s System California has the largest amount of electors of any state, On or before October st of the presidential election year, each party s

7 California s System California has the largest amount of electors of any state, On or before October st of the presidential election year, each party s nominee must submit a list of the electors pledges to him/her, with each party having their own method of selecting electors (California Secretary of State)

8 California s System cont. For the Democratic party, each congressional nominee and each US senate nominee designates one elector California operates on a winner-take-all system, with all electoral votes going towards the candidate with the majority of the popular vote in the state (California Secretary of State)

9 Proportional Representation Alex Hider

10 How it Works

11 Current Usage Democratic Primaries Party requires all states to use Proportional Representation % threshold % of votes are decided at-large The remainder are decided by district

12 Current Usage Republican Primaries States choose how to divide their delegates, but must use proportional if their primary is before March th Maximum 0% threshold, some use smaller 0 base electors plus any bonus electors are decided at large delegates per congressional district can be decided by district or based on the statewide vote

13 Benefits Reduces the disparity between the popular vote and the share of electors Fewer wasted votes Encourages political parties to campaign everywhere Drawbacks In general election could lead to a president winning with a very small percentage of the vote Provides a route for extremists Can prevent winnowing

14 Implementation Primaries General Election State-by-state Colorado tried in 00 with a ballot initiative, lost.7% to 6.% Main argument against it was that it takes away Colorado s power, would usually be split - so no candidates would focus on Colorado

15 Congressional Districts Model Amanda Khan

16 How it Works

17 Current Usage

18 Benefits Simple implementation More representative Higher voter turnout Accurate geographic representation of country Not a drastic change Gives Independents more of a chance Doesn t strip states of power Drawbacks Can heighten disparity between popular and electoral vote Seemingly Republican bias Gerrymandering

19 Gerrymandering Gill v. Whitford (pending) Current SCOTUS case striving to fix the inequalities of gerrymandering

20 Starting Point Consider changing how district lines are drawn in nationwide Congressional district voting would need to start in a swing state rather than CA

21 Ranked Choice Voting Caroline Reisch

22 How it Works

24 RCV Usage

25 Benefits Saves money Eliminates primary & runoff elections Turnout issues Stronger voices Better candidate choices More positive campaigns Eliminates spoiler effect Accountable leaders Broadens participation Source: FairVote

26 Empirical Support: Four Bay Area Cities Higher Voter Satisfaction Less Candidate Criticism Less Negativity High Voter Understanding Overall Support 6

27 Source: FairVote 7

28 Drawbacks Administrative Burdens Financial costs Implementation Time Confusing to Voters Example of Portland, Maine 8

29 Implementation - North Carolina in 00

30 California & Beyond Source: Phone call with Madeline, Research Fellow at FairVote 0

31 Remapping the Electoral College Madeline Goossen

32 Methodology Using data from the past presidential elections and reallocating votes using the proportional model Focus on main candidates, but all electoral votes are considered

33 Elections from Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Kennedy 9.7% 0 70 Nixon.% 0 Nixon 9.% 9 6 Humphrey.7% 9 Other 0.7% 6 Other.86% 6 79 EC New Name PV % EC New Name PV % Johnson 6.0% 86 0 Nixon 60.67% 0 Goldwater 8.7% McGovern 7.% 7 0 Other 0.8% 0 Other.8%

34 Elections from Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Carter 0.08% 97 7 Reagan 8.77% Ford 8.0% 0 6 Mondale 0.6% 7 Other.9% Other 0.67% Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Reagan 0.7% Bush.7% 6 9 Carter.0% 9 Dukakis.6% Other 8.% 0 Other 0.98%

35 Case Study: Election of

37 Case Study: Election of

39 Remapping the Electoral College Continued Araksya Nordikyan

40 Elections from Name PV % EC New Name PV % Clinton.0% 70 Clinton 9.% 79 6 Bush 7.% 68 0 Dole 0.7% 9 Other 9.% 0 06 Other 0.0% EC New 00 Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New W. Bush 7.87% 7 6 W. Bush 0.7% 86 7 Gore 8.8% 66 8 Kerry 8.6% 8 Other.7% 6 Other.0% 8

41 Elections from Name PV % Obama McCain Other 0 New Name PV % EC New.86% 0 88 Obama.0% 7.60% 7 0 Romney 7.% 06 9 Other.8% 0 7.% EC Name PV % EC Trump.9% 0 Clinton 8.0% 7 6 Other 6.0% 7 New

42 Case Study: Election of

44 Case Study: Election of

46 Remapping Evaluation Problems Rounding to whole numbers can skew results Candidates can fail to reach 70 - requires reworking of current system Benefits Elections more closely resemble popular vote percentages Proportional model allows for viable third party candidates Increases competitiveness of elections

47 Public Opinion Survey Albert Qian

48 Survey Demographics What is their age? What is their ethnicity? What is their education level? What is their average household income?

52 Average Household Income

53 Survey Questions Focused on determining the knowledge surveyors already had of the Electoral College Wanted to determine their opinions on alternative methods

58 Policy Recommendations. Restructure system of drawing district lines. Ranked Choice Voting should be used for local and state elections nationwide. Implement Proportional Representation in the General Election a. Utilize in Primary contests b. Republican Party either should require this, or each state should switch to this method c. Start with a coalition of swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina d. If no one reaches 70, whoever garners the most electoral votes wins

The Electoral College

The Electoral College Allocating Electors Among The States Each state has electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in the U.S. Congress. In addition, per the Twenty-third Amendment